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COVID-19 virus thread (formerly Wuhan coronavirus)

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by aimeeandbeatles, Jan 22, 2020.

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  1. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    That might be the reason why he was infected, but it is not the reason why the infection killed him.

    Viral infections are not supposed to be like radiation exposure, where exposure to more of the same thing has a critical limit.
     
  2. Bamspeedy

    Bamspeedy CheeseBob

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    Well I'm struggling to figure out why the doctor in his mid 30's died, possibilities:
    1. He had some unknown 'underlying medical condition'
    2. Coincidence. Even the flu can kill a young healthy person, but it is rare. Mid 30's he's not 'young' like a teenager, but he's certainly not old.
    3. The government 'silenced' him.
     
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  3. Samson

    Samson Deity

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    The other possibility is that the government "questioned" him, which was a stressful experience that degraded his bodies ability to fight the infection. So the governments fault, but it was not premeditated killing.
     
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  4. PPQ_Purple

    PPQ_Purple Techpriest Engineer

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    Perhaps he was simply exhausted from doing his job. Being a doctor in the middle of an epidemic is probably one of the most physically and mentally tasking things a person can do. And exertion does wonders to ruin your bodies ability to resist being murdered by disease.
     
  5. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

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    There is a component to that actually. It's why you wash your hands. Washing them doesn't remove every possible thing that could infect you, but it drastically reduces the %.

    When you are infected with something the body needs time to react to it. The more of it you have at t0 the more it can spread before immune response kicks in to fight it. How much of a difference this makes depends on type of virus, how quickly it multiplies, how it's contracted (making variable amounts more or less plausible), and likely things I'm not considering.

    But it's not really true that adding a single virus to the body vs say 100,000 of them simultaneously or something would make no difference.
     
  6. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    @TheMeInTeam

    Thank you for your answer. I do not think that I am sufficiently qualified to further debate it.

    I gloomily suspect containment will fail, but a failed containment will nevertheless be of value
    in that it will slow the spread and thereby give more time for the scientists to understand it
    better and so better identify medicines and treatment that may significantly reduce the death toll.
     
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  7. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

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    Yeah I wish containment would work, but even if it can't it's still worth doing to buy time. I've seen some economists suggest deliberate controlled exposure so that you don't have peak sickness all at once when caregivers can't work, but I don't think the level of coordination required for that to make everyone better off is realistically attainable and there's been some misdirection on how dangerous the disease is, which could make such an attempt end in panic. I don't think controlled exposure would even remain controlled, much less that it would be executed in some machinelike optimal fashion.

    So we're likely stuck with contain best we can and react until probably years from now when there are vaccination options and such.
     
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  8. Bamspeedy

    Bamspeedy CheeseBob

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    I don't know, but applying 'harsh interrogation techniques' on a contagious individual....i would want more than a facemask, and would seem hard to do in a hazmat suit....
     
  9. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    Oh come on.

    You post this "family wiped out" thing as if some healthy young parents and their frolicking children got suddenly massacred.
     
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  10. Bamspeedy

    Bamspeedy CheeseBob

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    Even though they were older, the common flu doesn't kill 4 people living together in the same month or two. At least not that I've ever heard of.
     
  11. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    As a USian, how often do you hear of a brother and sister near sixty and living together with their parents? I suspect that if you had that circumstance occurring regularly such wipe out events wouldn't be too uncommon.
     
  12. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Looks like they are letting 500 people off the cruise ship now and the rest over the next 2 days if they test negative and have no symptoms.

    Test is ??? accurate. :hmm:

    Last count was over 600 infected.

    Cruise ship had 3700 people total I think, not the 5000 I said earlier.

    Good luck Japan!

    Some more info has come in on this.
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...irus-hospital-director-dies-covid/4792597002/
    2 of the cruise ship people have now perished. :sad:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/19/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

    They were in their 80's.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 20, 2020
  13. How to know

    How to know Chieftain

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    For the last few weeks there were discussions among hospitals that a very small sample of patients who were released from hospitals were found positive again even though they were supposed to be cured. Now it is confirmed on state TV that four released patients are having similar symptoms to coronovirus like fever. It is still unknown whether is it superinfection or not.

    If it is, then there are quite a few possibilities for that. The first being the virus is hidden in the deepest corner of lower respiratory tract so normal testing methods are not able to reach where the virus are concentrated, I found it unlikely. The second one is the patients themselves simply have very weak immune system which we can’t help much thus make it a accident, consider the case is in a absolute minority I think it is the most likely one. The third one is the virus has already evolved. Anyway, if there are more number of such released patients were false negative to the virus test, then there is no point to keep the containment up within Wuhan, although keeping Wuhan from the rest of country is still necessary.
     
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  14. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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  15. Bamspeedy

    Bamspeedy CheeseBob

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    Any doubts to the accuracy of the tests? Here in the US there were many faulty test kits.
     
  16. How to know

    How to know Chieftain

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    The tests themselves are the best we have come up with, but yes, it is not very accurate.

    Firstly the test kit functions like litmus paper, it reacts with the virus in mucus from our respiratory system, which is basically snot and spits. The problem with that if you can only sneeze or cough out mucus from your upper respiratory duct, while the virus mainly attacks your lower parts, the end of the branch of our lungs, so collecting mucus that can prove positive can be difficult if the patients are in their early stage, and it would often require multiple times of test to finally confirm whether someone is actually sick or not. Also, doing the test itself can expose you to infection if the medical workers are not careful, plus going to hospitals are always risky if you are in Hubei, so it is possible that a perfectly healthy person got infected from actively seeking testing, like a self-fulfilled prophecy.

    The second important indicator for confirming cases is CT scanning, it would require someone more knowledgeable to explain, but from what my doctors friends said, they are respiratory experts, many respiratory diseases shows similar projection on CT, so the scanning can confirm that if some one if sick or not, but not what it is suffering from.

    The third one is obviously take your lung tissue samples directly through surgery method, it can guarantee a accurate result but I think we all know why it is not used as a standard method.

    China is currently creating a new test kit that is suppose to be much more sensitive, thus more accurate. No one knows how it will work.
     
  17. wolfigor

    wolfigor Emperor

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    Indeed there are big issues with the testing kits.
    Most media do not really clarify how the test kits work, so people create their own mental image of it.
    The test kit for Covid-19 is not like pregnancy test that you pee on a strip and gets a result in a few minutes.

    CDC has some information:
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/testing.html

    It's really a kind of cotton stick (I am largely simplifyilg here) that a doctor has to use to get some material from the patient throat.
    The virus is more concentrated in the deep parts so it's quite difficoult to collect samples of the virus.
    If the patient has symptoms (e.g. coughing) it's easier because there will be more material in the upper part of the of the respiratory tract.
    Anyway the samples are placed in the sealed box and send to laboratory that performs "genetic amplification" so that any genetic material related to the virus can be detected.

    This all process is not perfect nor easy and it's common to have a large number of false positives.
    The scarcity of test kits and laboratories that can perform the analysis of the sample offer another two bottleneck preventing large scale .
    Summary: unreliable test kit means lots of false negatives + scarcity of kits + scarcity of labs
    This prevents large scale testing before and after people seek medical care... to don't mention that very rough and draconian policies of inernment in China dissuade people from seeking help early.
    The virus is transmissable before any symptom appears and it may be transmissable after the symptoms disappear (for example the "normal" flu can be transmissable for 1 or even 2 weeks after the symptoms disappear).

    All the above casts a very dark shadow over the data about infections released by the Chinese government.
    Even the CDC has officially and publically admitted that they believe that the Chinese data is overly under-estimated.
    Independent sources estimated that the numbers shared by the Chinese government are probably 10 times lower than reality.

    Edit:
    In recent news China continues a crackdown on indipendent information related to Covid-19.
    After arresting Chinese people reporting independently they have now expelled WSJ jornalists from the country after an article that was negative about the handling of infection in Wuhan.
    This behaviour doesn't add confidence in the reality of data and information coming out of China.

    Hiding information leads to larger disaster later on because the institutions will lose credibility... like the WHO that is almost a propaganda mouthpiece of the Chinese giovernment and like the Iranian government.
    Until yesterday there were zero official covid-19 infections in Iran: Today 2, both dead.
    Another secretive regime that keep information hidden until an emergency explodes.

    Edit2:
    this is stark contrast with the attitude in Singapore.
    They are factual and informative about the status of cases in the country and what to do about it.
    Example: they list all cases of Covid-19 in detail (protecting identitied)
    https://www.gov.sg/article/covid-19-cases-in-singapore

    They also fight false information by explaining the details not by just shutting them down:
    https://www.gov.sg/article/covid-19-clarifications

    And they have a list of posters explaining what do to:
    https://www.gov.sg/article/covid-19-resources

    This is the right way to inform people, avoid fake news, and avoid histerical reactions
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2020
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  18. How to know

    How to know Chieftain

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    Thanks for the information, I was very wrong with the nature of the test kit. But I don't believe the kits and facilities to carry the test are scarce, my neighbor went to a very small hospital which is only intended to serve a local town, they got the lab and kits to do the test and it took only around an hour to get the result, the result was negativity of course.

    To what extent the measures taken by my government was draconian varies depends on personal taste, but I would say it is only draconian to people in Hubei. Personally I found the interment policies relieving to me. There are disabled and elders died in their home alone without care was tragic, but I would much prefer it happens in a lock off region instead of someplace closer to me, even though I know it is a heartless thing to say. I live in Guangdong province and we have the second most confirmed cases in China, my city cooperate well with government and yesterday we only had six more confirmed cases, times 10 that would be 60, still manageable to our hospitals. Guangzhou was hit the hardest by SARS in 2003, so I am glad that our local government took the firmest action. Now shops and opening, streets are becoming busy again in where I live, I am feeling very good. Now I can shamelessly complaining that the officials in Wuhan are not doing their jobs while knowing I am living in a far away place knowing things and this plague won't do much more harm to where I live anymore.

    The government in Singapore is doing great, its transparency and professionalism are most admirable, if only in China we have the equal proportion of patients per population then I would demand the same level of attitude, now I would rather leave it to government and question later, after the plague have pass. Underestimated or not, the terrors harm with or without the presence of virus, I guess ignorance is bliss sometimes is right. I believe there are many people are demanding answers for a lot of things, but asking for them now helps little. This event will force out government to change our flawed healthcare, hospital and emergency system anyway, right now medical workers have finally got a law to protect them from abusive patients and their relative, it's absurd it was not there before yet it has come and we know we will be left with a improved system.
     
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  19. wolfigor

    wolfigor Emperor

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    Yes, they are mostly there in Hubei, but the fact that only Hubei people are affected doesn't make it any better.
    It's like to say that a concentration camp in affects only muslim people, it does not make it any better for those affected.

    Anyway I was talking on a practical and not moral level.
    Stacking hundreds of people together (talking about Wuhan here), bed to bed, it's a good way to spread infection to to that are recluded.
    It isolated them from outside, but it doesn't help them.
    At the same time people now knows what happens if they get noticed and many who may be infected will stay well away from authorities.

    That's also why whoever can, escapes as soon as there is opportunity.
    Some people have looked at roaming data and seen that from 1st of February to 15th of February 138,685 people moved out of Wuhan (with their mobile a potentially some virus).
    They surely don't trust the effectivity of the measures.


    Here is where we really differ in our opinion.
    This is the moment to check the operate of the government and ask for more transparency.
    The Chinese government does not need to publish stats about every single patient, but they can at least allow a more impartial information.
    The virus was able to explode because the problem was swept under the rug; whoever spoke up was target by police.
    The authorities closed their eyes and hoped the problem will evaporate by itself... which it never does.
    They were also trying to hide the reality of infectivity, severity, and transmission vectors: instead of making things better, people were not aware of the risks and more were nedlessly infected.
    Ignorance is NOT bliss: ignorance of a danger is a good way to fall into that danger.
    The more truth is hidden the more people seek it somewhere else, with loss of faith in the institutions and getting unreliable information.

    Singapore is a good example of good information, sharing that type of information scale magnificantly well: one web page and millions can get the right information... as long as they trust the source.
    Laying and covering the truth until is no more possible to do so, it's not a good way to gather that trust.

    Allowing independentent media to report is indipendent from the size of the epidemic. (China arrested independent reporters)
    Allowing experts from other countries (like the CDC which is the gold standard for this) is also a good move to gather trust and outside help. (China refused such help)
    Sharing data with outher countries nearby also helps (China doesn't share much data with it's neighbours and stonewalled Taiwan)
    I could go on and on about a lot of things that were done wrong and that can be rectified at any time.
    None of which has anything to do with the size of the epidemic.

    Now it's the right time to ask questions: now people needs to know what is going on and know what is best to do.
    After the epidemic will be over it's too late.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2020
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  20. How to know

    How to know Chieftain

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    I found myself hard to comprehend why secluding Wuhan is not practical.

    It isolate the infection source, unfortunately it means people in Wuhan, from the rest of productive population.
    The virus transmits through sneeze and cough and possibility air in closes space like lifts, thus by keeping the infection source away we are also cutting off routes of transmission.
    The susceptible population inside Wuhan are protected through another level of travel restriction inside the city, each neighborhood's necessities are arranged through organised workers and volunteers, so instead of thousands of people going to supermarkets everyday we now have tens of them visiting these places for them.
    While government officials and medical professionals are doing their jobs, we the outsiders avoid going out to prevent getting infected, which will stretch the resources that should be spend in Wuhan, medical professionals from outside were conscripted and sent to Wuhan.
    After the immediate danger have pass we return to work to keep the economy running, so we won't face a ruined state after the plague, and factories are producing masks and gloves and protection cloths for hospitals on the front line.
    At the same time all communities are donating money, resources and sometimes labour to Wuhan. We are also providing helps to relatives of doctors who have been conscripted. My family have sent rice, sweets, toilet rolls and other stuff to doctors we know who have new born kids at home, and we are talking to our hospital administrator friends to arrange pads for female workers who are going to Wuhan, because government officials are sexists.

    At no time were Wuhan are isolated from the rest of country, the whole machine is running to solve the problem. I don't think the direction my government is take is wrong regarding this disease, although there are many flaws like corruptions, local officials' infighting and false scientific result leads to the partial failing in Wuhan on the government's end, and the initial attitude of ignorance made the disease much harder to control we realise how bad it is. I would say Wuhan is much better than a concentration camp, because people from outside are actively helping them, and they have indeed received those help, even if they are not enough.

    Yet it is a major disappointment to me that information are kept secretive, I do share your sentiment. Scale matters in this case not because it justify the secrecy morally, but because numbers are not accurate in Wuhan anyway, yes it can be much worse in Wuhan than we can imagine, but it is also hard to collect data when workers are afraid to collect them and infected people are hiding. Testing methods and confirmation standards are updated almost daily, last week they were using clinical tested positive as confirmed case and now after the test kits are better, many of those people were considered negative. Our government can realise those data but I doubt it will be of any use, better than nothing for sure but it will definitely create horrors.

    I guess I am seeing the mote in your eyes but not the beam in mine, knowing these information would help your country to calculate the risk and what measures should be taken, Norway is really cold so it can spread fast there, but personally I think the absolute necessary information are:
    How many infected people are in my city?
    Do my local hospitals have the capacity to deal with the potential outbreak?
    Is any of my friends or relatives infected or in Wuhan?
    How do I protect myself from infection?
    When can I go back to work?
    What policies can protect my jobs?
    and so on.

    But I don't think "How Bad Is It" is something I must know. Its impossible to get a clear answer now, it disturbs my mental health, plus there is nothing much I can do about it. Transparency is good, yet I can tolerate the current level of transparency.



    As far as I know our government is sharing some information with Japan and South Korea, don't know how much have been shared though. Taiwan is a whole different matter, I can only believe the grudge between the two governments will probably end with blood, no matter what people on both sides desire.

    As of CDC, I admit I have never heard such organisation before, I will do my research, but NGOs are notorious in China. The Red Cross here is so corrupt here it just make people speechless.
     
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