COVID-19 virus thread (formerly Wuhan coronavirus)

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@Cheetah Stock market says differently about the possibility of economic trouble. Down 3.5% today. But that is just today. No telling what tomorrow will bring. :)
 
@Cheetah Stock market says differently about the possibility of economic trouble. Down 3.5% today. But that is just today. No telling what tomorrow will bring. :)
Meh. The stock market is in a hyper-inflated bubble and has been so for years with all the quantitative easing, so letting some air out of that bubble could merely be something that would have happened at some point anyway.

But yes, if governments decide to shut down the economy, of course there will be problems.

I'll admit that I think both the CCP and other governments (e.g. Austria stopping trains to Italy) are overreacting. Maybe they have some information I am not privy to? In which case what do I know...

(If the market falls a bit more I'll buy in, though. I have quite a bit of savings ready to be reinvested again.)
 
Meh. The stock market is in a hyper-inflated bubble and has been so for years with all the quantitative easing, so letting some air out of that bubble could merely be something that would have happened at some point anyway.

But yes, if governments decide to shut down the economy, of course there will be problems.

I'll admit that I think both the CCP and other governments (e.g. Austria stopping trains to Italy) are overreacting. Maybe they have some information I am not privy to? In which case what do I know...

(If the market falls a bit more I'll buy in, though. I have quite a bit of savings ready to be reinvested again.)
I'm holding cash too. We'll see on that though.

I don;t know what the best response is now. China has said, "Screw it, get back to work." as the best path to balance a terrible situation. I think it is every country for itself now and we will see a hodge podge of efforts based on local politics. social conditions and fears. If more Italys and Koreas happen, more panic will follow.
 
This is not a war!

Virusses are one of our arch enemies

mostly at skirmish level like the normal flu
because the too lethal ones eliminate their hosts faster than they can spread

The balance between too lethal and spreading always key

And with the higher contact rate of modern society. (population density, local-global connectivity, regional-global tourism, etc) that balance shifts and more lethal strands can still spread effectively despite higher lethality



A. The higher the human contact rate.. the more lethal a virus can afford to be

B. When an existing virus present in humans mutates to a more lethal one, most people will likely still have antibodies from a less lethal one that is familiar with the newly mutated virus.
With Corona virusses that come out of the blue from an animal this familiarity is much less likely and therefore likely no antibodies in the population.

If you add up A and B we will need to have general ways to lessen spreading:
 
We know very little of this new virus, but I do believe getting infected can give you long term immunity.

Firstly if we look at SARS, a virus that belongs to the same coronavirus family as the covid 19, the patients who got them in 2003 still have igG against SARS in their systems, so that is the long term immunity you want.

Secondly the plasma from the recovered have been proved effective in improve patients’ condition if they are still in the early stage of symptoms. We don’t know if the goodies in those plasma are permanent to the body or not, but if it’s long enough to wait until the disease have passed then I would say it’s a long term protection.

I don’t know where the 200 re-infected comes from but I found it unlikely.
 
A resort in Tenerife, Spain, gone in quarantine with 1000 people inside due to one confirmed infected

remove the infected one and wait two weeks... with every new case wait another two weeks.
cutting up that resort in separated areas will help.


and yes... tourism will get a massive hit this year.
 
So this article popped up on my news feed and it's pretty depressing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

Summary, it says that the asymptomatic nature and low lethality of the virus means it's likely to spread globally. H5N1 was extremely lethal and acted fast, so those who got it didn't spread it much. They were easily identified or just stayed home sick and possibly died. This, you can carry it without having symptoms and feel fine enough to go about your day, spreading it to many others. Some experts are even saying it's going to end up as another seasonal flu strain. Which is quite terrifying to me, since sure it's very innocuous compared to something like SARS or Ebola virus, but it's much stronger than our typical seasonal flu strains. I guess our best hope is that it doesn't mutate like regular flu and we can develop an effective vaccine for it.
 
Which is why slowing the spreading is now important

I believe it is too late already to stop cases appearing in most major cities. There has been massive incompetence among european governments, none wanted to move to curtail tourism. It was and is exceedingly obvious that tourism is the main vector of international spread.

Even now those governments in countries without declared cases persist in not curtailing international travel preemptively. No lessons learned. Short-sighted and indeed wrong and unproductive economic interests rule. Tourism will be dead anyway as the pandemic spreads, and internal quarantines become necessary that could might have been avoided by closing borders on time.
 
remove the infected one and wait two weeks... with every new case wait another two weeks.
cutting up that resort in separated areas will help.


and yes... tourism will get a massive hit this year.

Just heard in the radio an interview to a guy who is in the resort. He said that they have been asked to do not get out from their rooms, but there is people in the pools
 
Just heard in the radio an interview to a guy who is in the resort. He said that they have been asked to do not get out from their rooms, but there is people in the pools

Just locking down a hotel like this is not the best idea. Been there with the cruise ship, a lot of people may end up getting infected. I hope that the spanish can split that group into smaller groups so as to at least limit the number of cases if it spreads in close quarters. If other hotels were empty (say, if tourism is stoppled...), split the guests between several local hotels, making sure they're not overcrowded, and enforce a quarantine that way.

Enforcing, I guess, is the word because some people just can't be trusted to cooperate in putting an end to this asap. Using the pools and pretending the vacations are still on...

There are 8,000,000 people in Osaka. 2 have been confirmed for the virus. Locally, I don’t think it’s a disconcerting number yet unless we start seeing an upswing in diagnosed cases.

Anyone talking about what will be done with the olympics?
 
Alright, seeing Milan shut down did it for me.

The possibility of having cities shut down all nonessential services seems very plausible for many of us, maybe even probable. At this point, I think it prudent to stock up a few weeks worth of basic supplies: rice, canned veggies, pet food / supplies (like cat litter), medications, cleaning supplies (disinfectant sprays for door knobs, hand sanitizer), and a bunch of other things I'm not thinking of that others might suggest.

I doubt it'll get so bad that people lose utilities, but some water and batteries might be a good idea too.
 
Alright, seeing Milan shut down did it for me.

The possibility of having cities shut down all nonessential services seems very plausible for many of us, maybe even probable. At this point, I think it prudent to stock up a few weeks worth of basic supplies: rice, canned veggies, pet food / supplies (like cat litter), medications, cleaning supplies (disinfectant sprays for door knobs, hand sanitizer), and a bunch of other things I'm not thinking of that others might suggest.

I doubt it'll get so bad that people lose utilities, but some water and batteries might be a good idea too.
Grab that angel you showed us earlier and slowly melt it for water in the coming weeks.
 
Alright, seeing Milan shut down did it for me.

The possibility of having cities shut down all nonessential services seems very plausible for many of us, maybe even probable. At this point, I think it prudent to stock up a few weeks worth of basic supplies: rice, canned veggies, pet food / supplies (like cat litter), medications, cleaning supplies (disinfectant sprays for door knobs, hand sanitizer), and a bunch of other things I'm not thinking of that others might suggest.

I doubt it'll get so bad that people lose utilities, but some water and batteries might be a good idea too.

I expect that before very many cities shut down they'll realize it's not really worthwhile.

My hope is that covid-19 pushes it to become socially unacceptable to attend school/work if you've got cold or flu symptoms.
 
What's the odds of it reaching a small US town of 10,000 people 1,000+ miles from any coastline?

Unless it becomes the only news item I feel like I'll be safe and the hysteria and panic is a bigger threat.
 
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