Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by aimeeandbeatles, Jan 22, 2020.
Plague Inc. tells me Greenland would be the safest. ;D
Yes but it's too cold.
Snippets from today:
With the righ technology and people at hand, and some luck amd hard work, this is doable in a week or two.
The speed of scientific publishing fascinates me more. There are already 5 publications out about the virus. Normally the publishers don't even manage to typeset the stuff in this timeframe, not considering anything else even .
Just wanted to say: If you wanted to lock down 11 million people here, you basically need to close the borders of the Netherlands .
Climate change should fix that soon.
Hey, two wrongs making a right!
Just coming out of a 40-day public transit strike, I can confirm you we could easily lock down Paris.
I have a friend who teaches at the U. of L'Havre who keeps me updated on her trying to balance striking and teaching (so she gets paid). She marched Friday morning and taught her classes that afternoon. I'm glad we don't have to deal with those here, but I would probably trade Trump for them if he gets elected again.
We are already almost one greater metropole area.
But looking at the graph below locking down Wuhan is no longer enough, and things are moving towards locking down China.
Which brings combatting this disease to its second phase and that is the compartmentalization of China in smaller areas separated from each other.
In effect when you make units of for example 10 people, and when after the incubation time (multiplied with 2 as safety factor) nobody got fever, that unit is in the clear and needs only protect itself from other units.
If we take the incubation time at 2-7 days, the max being 7, a period of 14 days would be enough.
IF... if a unit has someone with fever, and the feverish person is moved to a waiting place to be tested, the rest of the unit has only to set the counter of expired days back to zero and wait again those 14 days. Rinse and repeat.
Essential is that everybody is immobilised.
And bigger units are ofc also possible. The only thing is that, without any further info, a unit of 20 has twice the chance to have somebody who was infected.
The comparrmentalization is more a generic risk reduction action to contain bad luck areas or areas with less discipline to stay immobilised in their units.
If they can manage the death rate, the big number of those infected won't matter too much. It's the number who die that will tip the scales into a panic mode.
Now I have a sore throat
Farewell comrades! If I die, consider me a true communist.
I haven't been playing attention - is this another supposed global pandemic like the Ebola a few years before? Drug companies made a nice killing then.
Has anyone read how long it takes for someone infected to stop being infectious? Aside from dying, I mean.
Because it seems like that's the trick. If it's a couple days, that's one thing, and if it is a few weeks or more... China really is facing a bigger problem than anyone thought (and the rest of us, too).
Your vote in the political leanings thread will be enshrined forever. Godspeed, @red_elk
AFAIK the end of the contagious period is not yet known.
With SARS, that other Corona virus, the advice was 10 days after ending of the symptoms.
In general for a virus infection: the weaker your immune system is (for example from old age) the longer it can take before you are not contagious anymore.
The nasty property of this virus seems to be that, unlike SARS, it is already contagious during the incubation period (that is before you have symptoms). And that is making this virus dangerous for spreading.
Whether people that got it need to be 10 days longer in quarantaine is I think not that important for the majority of people (who are not infected). Although those 10 days are ofc important for that individual person and 10 days longer quarantaine doubles the capacity needed.
If you feel a craving for brains, ignore it. They just don't have the nutritional value that they used to.
I don't feel craving for brains.
Wait, brains? Brains...
That's how this thing got started in the first place...
So that is also how it must end
I am a Chinese citizen, so I guess I might be able to give some insights on this issue.
Firstly, the first infected who has shown symptoms of it was find in Wuhan around Christmas. The original outbreak was located to a food market in Wuhan almost immediately, after a few days the virus was identified as a new member of the coronavirus. The market was closed and inspected for only a few days and then it went back to business as usual. If I remember it correctly the infected number was around 10-ish, there was certainly no death. There was some early concerns from both the public and medical experts but since no more patients was found the general opinion was it was things are under control. The New Year holiday was coming so we just want to move on.
From January things start to went south. Things were quite chaotic and it’s impossible to make a clear timeline of what happened for now, the facts that people in China are agree with is patients were found in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hongkong, so more experts were sent to investigate by the government, and they found it quite horrible locally. There was some explanations and warnings on the national news channel but was largely ignored. I remember not many people in Guangzhou was wearing mask before 23rd of Jan despite the warnings, I guess it was the same for Shanghai and Beijing but I can be very wrong.
The cause of the whole affair goes back to the food market. We are now certain that the virus was coming from some bats, then the bats spread it to another type of mammals of which type we are uncertain of. The point is the market was selling wild animal meats illegally and someone was foolish enough to eat them raw, hence the start of this mayhem.
Many people blamed the local government of Wuhan for good reasons. The first thing is they did not closed the market for good when the first patients was found, it was the earliest stage of the contagion process so if it was done well we would not be seeing this. The second thing is in Wuhan there was a tradition that at the night prior to the new year all families goes together to the street and share their food together, a perfect chance for the virus to spread, this event was NOT CANCELLED despite experts’ warnings and was even encouraged in order to ease the public anxiety on this particular issue. Thirdly, when the central government gave order to quarantine Wuhan, the local government gave warning to the citizens 13 hours before implementing it, so of course people panicked and over three hundred thousand people escaped Wuhan under disguise, starting from that it had become impossible to track the disease. The last goes to corruption, as local government officials themselves were escaping Wuhan with their family.
The situation in China is mostly stable. I haven’t been to Wuhan so I won’t pretend to know lots about there, but according to my friends there it was not too bad, streets are empty and many shop are closed, but no corpses on streets, they are staying at home safely. We are accustomed to staying at home during Chinese New Year so staying a bit longer is endurable for us. The food price did rose for a little bit but is still affordable for most people, but the masks had become insanely expensive, and it is now illegal to walk on public spaces without putting your mask on, so that is very annoying. Other places are much more relaxing, although the mask policy are implemented in many provinces. More on economy, the restaurant and tourism industry went very bad for obvious reasons, there are fear of bankruptcy from these business which are very true, and we haven’t heard any policies for helping these businesses yet, the manufacturers were affected due to travel bans, but it’s too early to tell how deep their wound will be, other businesses are doing okay afaik.
Right now there are thousands of doctors and nurses volunteered to go to Wuhan, medical equipment manufacturers are now exempt from tax, the army were mobilised to maintain the quarantine action, two hospitals are being built and were planning to be finished in 6 days, the resting kit for the virus are being sent to all major cities and affected countries like Japan and Australia, these are more or less confirmed. The scientists are still looking for the animal that first infected people in that market, though many believe it is impossible, they also claimed to have successfully separate the virus strain from human cells, if that’s true it will help the making of cure and vaccines tremendously, but even that it will take at least months.
the last thing I want to say is there really is no need to worry about your life. Right now there are over 80 deaths due to this virus, within them over 70 are in Wuhan, almost all of them are either aged or already suffering other respiratory diseases, so if you are heathy now, the chance for you to get killed by it is very low.
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