COVID - A light on the horizon?

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The discussion about vaccination certificate forgery is mostly a sign that we should not lift restrictions for vaccinated people only, before everyone had the chance to be vaccinated.

If you have the option to get the vaccine, hopefully even for free, why would you go down the illegal, more costly route? Some may, but I doubt it would be very many. But if you are desperate and have no other option, a forgery might seem to be the only way.
It depends what the vaccine passport is for. If it is getting on a plane or getting a job, then it is reasonable to put up technical and legal barriers to make forgery illegal and costly. If this is getting into a pub then it is quite a different question.

Even when there is enough vaccine to do everyone in the UK, there will be people who will not get vaccinated, for health, religious, geographical and conspiracy theory reasons. How much can we discriminate against these people, and what lengths will they go to to avoid the discrimination? These are difficult questions.
 
It depends what the vaccine passport is for. If it is getting on a plane or getting a job, then it is reasonable to put up technical and legal barriers to make forgery illegal and costly. If this is getting into a pub then it is quite a different question.

Even when there is enough vaccine to do everyone in the UK, there will be people who will not get vaccinated, for health, religious, geographical and conspiracy theory reasons. How much can we discriminate against these people, and what lengths will they go to to avoid the discrimination? These are difficult questions.

I am sure the state will avoid discrimination - as it always does.
One also has to wonder if forcing vaccine passports is constitutional (for those countries that have a constitution).
 
Getting everyone vaccinated will take years. The Covid virus will evolve and new viruses may
emerge. Vaccines taken may become out of date so there may be a generic long turn need.

If the person can not be safely vaccinated, the state/country
database could record an exemption for medical reasons.

If people otherwise choose not to get vaccinated, then ultimately that is
their decision and they can take the forseeable logical consequences.

Consider a possible standard internet address format:

www . vaccinerecord . gov. [state/country name]

You turn up at a seaport or an airport, and the
border official looks at your passport and types in
(a) [state/country name] and (b) passport number;
and has your vaccination details on their screen.

In some places e.g. busy airports/seaports; that might
be done automatically from a scanner, in others (smaller
or third world, without such expensive facilities); the
border officials can simply use their smart phone.
 
Getting everyone vaccinated will take years. The Covid virus will evolve and new viruses may
emerge. Vaccines taken may become out of date so there may be a generic long turn need.

Most likely it will be a continuous process yes - that's why I see little use in differentiating between those already vaccinated and those yet to be vaccinated, trick will be rise to such levels it doesn't matter imho.

(...)
Consider a possible standard internet address format:

www . vaccinerecord . gov. [state/country name]

You turn up at a seaport or an airport, and the
border official looks at your passport and types in
(a) [state/country name] and (b) passport number;
and has your vaccination details on their screen.

Most people that turn up at a national border are your own national citizens returning from abroad, they can still carry a new variant against which your "national" vaccine is not, or less, effective.
 
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I am sure the state will avoid discrimination - as it always does.
One also has to wonder if forcing vaccine passports is constitutional (for those countries that have a constitution).

There are already various countries which require that you're vaccinated against yellow fever before entry (which includes France, the Netherlands and Malta as European countries), so pretty sure that this concept has been challenged before.
(similar requirements are there for polio and meningococcal meningitis, and in the last century smallpox in various countries, none of them European though)
 
Most people that turn up at a national border are your own national citizens returning from abroad, they can still carry a new variant against which your "national" vaccine is not, or less, effective.

Quite so, which is why a fast test facility at air and sea ports and a UK state
run and paid for quarantine system for anybody who tests positive is needed.

Sadly much UK official thinking is about expecting travellers from particular places,
who may not have Covid at all, to book online in advance and pay for it themselves.
 
Antibody therapy driving COVID mutations

There was a time when the hope for covid therapy was antibodies from recovered patients used to treat current patients. Unsurprisingly this was particularly valuable for immunocompromised people. It seems that in one single individual who was intensively studied that this has spurred mutations. The potential for viral evolution means that convalescent plasma should be used cautiously when treating people with compromised immunity.

Here we report chronic SARS-CoV-2 with reduced sensitivity to neutralising antibodies in an immune suppressed individual treated with convalescent plasma, generating whole genome ultradeep sequences over 23 time points spanning 101 days. Little change was observed in the overall viral population structure following two courses of remdesivir over the first 57 days. However, following convalescent plasma therapy we observed large, dynamic virus population shifts, with the emergence of a dominant viral strain bearing D796H in S2 and ΔH69/ΔV70 in the S1 N-terminal domain NTD of the Spike protein. As passively transferred serum antibodies diminished, viruses with the escape genotype diminished in frequency, before returning during a final, unsuccessful course of convalescent plasma.
These data reveal strong selection on SARS-CoV-2 during convalescent plasma therapy associated with emergence of viral variants with evidence of reduced susceptibility to neutralising antibodies.
 
Don't you bring race into this. :huh: I have no objection to the prioritizing of the reserves, since most of them have egregiously substandard health services, plumbing, clean water, and healthy food on a good day, never mind during a pandemic.

The individuals I mentioned are not aboriginal. I am not the only one who is disgusted by the idea that a serial murderer/rapist such as Paul Bernardo (his preferred prey was young teenage girls, one of whom was his own sister-in-law), Robert Pickton (known count of his victims was 49, who he raped, killed, dismembered, and fed to the pigs on his farm), or the Shafiya family (husband, son, and wife #2 collaborated in the drownings of wife #1 and the three oldest daughters for such trivial "offenses" as refusal to wear a hijab or wanting to have a boyfriend) would be prioritized over front-line workers in a hospital for cancer patients

This is pretty silly and irrational I'm afraid. Prisons are high risk super spreading environments full of vulnerable, marginalised and at risk people with very little power and no amount of individualised tabloid hype is gonna change that.
 
In other news they've started the Australian vaccines here as of like yesterday. Imported Pfizer first up for the front line groups, and Astra Zeneca being manufactured here for future general use.

Interestingly the PM but also Opposition leader and Greens leader were all given theirs here in Canberra by ACT Health since they're in town for parliament right now.

I'm not sure if it's about assuaging doubts and encouraging takeup, or if it's because they are a frequently travelling group of essential workers, coming from all other cities. Which makes parliamentarians one of the few genuine transmission risks, and occasional quarantine burden, in a territory that hasn't had any cases since July.
 
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On the distribution problem, I think there is some merit to starting with a small number of centralized sites. Calgary and Edmonton alone is probably too little, but we did the exact opposite in Ohio and it has been a huge headache. Pharmacies all across the state offer covid vaccines - except that they are almost always out of stock. The way to find a vaccine is to call a pharmacy or check their website, but well over 99% of the time they won't have any. And in most cases, you have to check every individual location - e.g. you don't check CVS's site, you check every individual CVS pharmacy within driving distance. It's common for people who are eligible to spend an hour a day just checking if vaccines are available, and I suspect weariness with checking for vaccines is one of the reasons vaccination among the most elderly has plateued.

Whereas in North Dakota, they focused on a few large sites, so you could check once a day on a single-digit number of providers' sites, and know if it was available. Much less of a waste of time.

West Virginia did one better, deploying to numerous locations, including smaller locales, but having a central sign-up portal for the whole state. Enter your ZIP code and distance you can travel, and you can find out instantly if any locations nearby are offering vaccines.

That is the sort of system we need to reach those who can't drive as well. Especially as vaccines that don't require as low of temperatures become available (AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson), there's no reason you couldn't have individual doses driven to customers on a route who have signed up saying they want the vaccine; it would not be significantly different from what was done for nursing homes or schools, and as long as you knew there was demand, should work. It is a problem that so many services have been car-centric.

That said, I can't make governments be competent, beyond writing to and voting for or against my own. I'm fortunate to live in a state that has a competent governor, albeit hamstrung by a largely incompetent legislature.
 
It'll be interesting to hear what Australia does for roll-out. I think having high-profile figures publicly take the vaccine can be good for encouraging uptake. Whether it makes sense for them to take it super early is debatable, but I can see the logic re: frequent travel in Australia. I like what Ohio's governor did - taking the vaccine publicly, but only once his age group was eligible. That works better for encouraging uptake since he's in his 70s than if he was in his 40s, and wouldn't be eligible for months.

In general I think the vaccine passport idea is sensible, and as The_J mentioned, it has been done for other diseases. Though uppi is right that you can't implement it too early, until availability is greater. But I think a carrot-and-stick approach is going to be necessary to get the level of vaccination needed for herd immunity, and early measures such as Israel opening international travel to Greece, but only for those who are vaccinated, are the start of that type of approach. They're at 45% of the populace having the first dose, which is probably about as early as you can really implement such incentives.
 
^While a federal prosecutor has filed for criminal prosecution against the now outgone minister and others (which includes pro-government officials and their families, pro-government trade unionists and their families, and pro-government businessmen and their families), Argentina has passed the 51,000 dead mark. In passing I have to say that I hope the prosecutor isn't suicided like others have been recently. :cringe:
Whenever I start to think things are really terrible in the UK,
I can rely on someone to cheer me up with their horror story.
Well, Edward's wish is fulfilled. The prosecutor has been notified by the state pension authority that, if he does not resign his post and retire right now, he will be ineligible for a pension upon his eventual retirement.
 
It depends what the vaccine passport is for. If it is getting on a plane or getting a job, then it is reasonable to put up technical and legal barriers to make forgery illegal and costly. If this is getting into a pub then it is quite a different question.

Even when there is enough vaccine to do everyone in the UK, there will be people who will not get vaccinated, for health, religious, geographical and conspiracy theory reasons. How much can we discriminate against these people, and what lengths will they go to to avoid the discrimination? These are difficult questions.
In the US there is a panel of vaccinations required for kids to attend school ("MMR" measles mumps rubella). I wonder if there will be similar protocols for COVID.
 
You think your country has handled it badly? What about Tanzania:
 
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On the distribution problem, I think there is some merit to starting with a small number of centralized sites. Calgary and Edmonton alone is probably too little, but we did the exact opposite in Ohio and it has been a huge headache. Pharmacies all across the state offer covid vaccines - except that they are almost always out of stock. The way to find a vaccine is to call a pharmacy or check their website, but well over 99% of the time they won't have any. And in most cases, you have to check every individual location - e.g. you don't check CVS's site, you check every individual CVS pharmacy within driving distance. It's common for people who are eligible to spend an hour a day just checking if vaccines are available, and I suspect weariness with checking for vaccines is one of the reasons vaccination among the most elderly has plateued.
Damn straight, Calgary and Edmonton are too little. The way this province "works" is that the Legislature is in Edmonton, but much of the money (oil, gas, ranching) is in Calgary. So the politicians focus on Calgary and Edmonton and consider my city (geographically between them) as that wide spot in the road that's convenient for buying gas on the way to the other city, or convenient hotel space so people in either of the large cities don't have to drive so far for meetings and conventions - especially those designed to attract the attention of the party faithful. Other than that unexpected blip in 2015, you could run a pile of used cat litter under the UCP or Reformacon or any right-wing banner in Red Deer and it would be elected. Therefore, Red Deer is taken for granted, and there's a pervasive idea that services don't need to be available here because "you can just drive to Edmonton or Calgary and get whatever it is".

Whereas the truth is that not only are we no longer a small town, but we also serve the many towns, villages, and even smaller cities in Central Alberta. It's well-known that you have a better chance of surviving a heart attack in Edmonton or Calgary because they have multiple hospitals. We just have the one here. One hospital, one emergency room, and it wasn't unusual 20 years ago to have people on stretchers in the hallways and stashed anywhere they could find room, because there just isn't enough room. Two years ago I got a couple of idiotic survey calls, asking if I'd "recommend" our hospital/emergency room over any others, and the caller was taken aback when I said it was a ridiculous question to ask in a city where the only choice is "take it or leave it, and if you leave it, you'll probably die."

More people here are urban than they were 50 years ago, but the population in this province who don't live in any of the major cities are still quite spread out. There are still people living basically in the middle of nowhere, and good luck to them if they have transportation issues. We don't have passenger trains here; we don't even have the Greyhound anymore. And for people like me... I have no way to leave the city unless it's for medical purposes and I can arrange transportation either through the transit service or the seniors' centre, and both are prohibitively expensive for someone in my situation (and everyone else in this situation; it's only due to my case worker being a compassionate and common sense-type that I was able to have my eye surgery two years ago because those surgeries are not done in Red Deer; I'd be blind now without that).

So what this means for the vaccine is that they will have to take into account that not all at-risk people are elderly and living in LTC or group homes. So far they haven't taken this into account. So far we've been ignored, as in they won't even answer our questions.

I live near a walk-in clinic and pharmacy in the nearest strip mall. It's a short taxi ride or handibus ride away. These places serve much of this part of the city, so hopefully the provincial government and AHS will find a couple of brain cells and realize that we should not be expected to leave the city or go across town to get this done.

Whereas in North Dakota, they focused on a few large sites, so you could check once a day on a single-digit number of providers' sites, and know if it was available. Much less of a waste of time.

West Virginia did one better, deploying to numerous locations, including smaller locales, but having a central sign-up portal for the whole state. Enter your ZIP code and distance you can travel, and you can find out instantly if any locations nearby are offering vaccines.

That is the sort of system we need to reach those who can't drive as well. Especially as vaccines that don't require as low of temperatures become available (AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson), there's no reason you couldn't have individual doses driven to customers on a route who have signed up saying they want the vaccine; it would not be significantly different from what was done for nursing homes or schools, and as long as you knew there was demand, should work. It is a problem that so many services have been car-centric.

That said, I can't make governments be competent, beyond writing to and voting for or against my own. I'm fortunate to live in a state that has a competent governor, albeit hamstrung by a largely incompetent legislature.
About the best I could expect would be a nearby location. Some people are very reluctant to enter apartment buildings, especially larger ones. This isn't the largest in the city, but it's larger than most. I suppose they could do a clinic in the social room, if the company that owns the building agreed, as there are quite a few older adults living here, either seniors or younger seniors/disabled people like me (I'm over 55 so am in the category of "young senior" - which doesn't bother me as it comes with occasional discount perks at a few businesses in town; I'd be an idiot to turn down 20% off my purchase, but some do just because of vanity).

But that's just speculation and common sense. Common sense is in short supply these days.

It'll be interesting to hear what Australia does for roll-out. I think having high-profile figures publicly take the vaccine can be good for encouraging uptake. Whether it makes sense for them to take it super early is debatable, but I can see the logic re: frequent travel in Australia. I like what Ohio's governor did - taking the vaccine publicly, but only once his age group was eligible. That works better for encouraging uptake since he's in his 70s than if he was in his 40s, and wouldn't be eligible for months.

In general I think the vaccine passport idea is sensible, and as The_J mentioned, it has been done for other diseases. Though uppi is right that you can't implement it too early, until availability is greater. But I think a carrot-and-stick approach is going to be necessary to get the level of vaccination needed for herd immunity, and early measures such as Israel opening international travel to Greece, but only for those who are vaccinated, are the start of that type of approach. They're at 45% of the populace having the first dose, which is probably about as early as you can really implement such incentives.
Any politician here who got the vaccine and wasn't eligible either by age or at-risk status would be vilified without mercy. Unless they were someone with a great deal of influence, they should not expect to keep their job after the next election if they were to jump the queue. Some of them are already on very thin ice after revelations that they took out-of-country vacations over Christmas; some were demoted and at least one I can recall was booted from caucus (rather stupid of him to post vacation photos on social media while pretending he was still home).

I don't know what to make of a vaccine passport. It penalizes people who, for medical reasons, can't have the vaccine, and I can understand their concerns. There are businesses in town that refuse to let anyone enter unless they slop hand sanitizer all over themselves, which I can't do, for medical reasons (yes, I know you don't need a passport to enter a store). And of course there are lots of people here invoking the Charter, which guarantees freedom of movement into and out of Canada and everywhere within Canada. That's why some are openly flouting (or attempting to flout) the rules some provinces and territories have put in, limiting entry to residents and essential workers only.

I am sure the state will avoid discrimination - as it always does.
I hope this is meant sarcastically and that you are not naive enough to think that "the state" avoids discrimination.

One also has to wonder if forcing vaccine passports is constitutional (for those countries that have a constitution).
There are plenty of arguments flying around here regarding vaccine passports. Yes, many consider them unconstitutional. Canada's Charter of Rights and Freedoms has given most Canadians many rights that we weren't always able to count on before, but it's a flawed document in that some parts of it are horribly contradictory when dealing with some situations.

One of the rights we have in Canada is that we're allowed to go anywhere in Canada that we want - I could go to Nunavut if I wanted to, or any other province... under normal circumstances. Some provinces and territories have put in rules now that only residents and essential workers are allowed in, and there have been Human Rights Commission/Charter cases over out-of-province family members being denied the right to attend funerals for immediate family.

The argument going on in the news tonight on the CBC website is over churches that keep flouting the laws regarding social distancing, masking, occupancy, etc. The pastors who keep blatantly and loudly violating these restrictions - and their supporters - are claiming that their Charter rights are being violated on the basis of freedom of religion and freedom of assembly.

The first is nonsense. The Charter guarantees the right to believe in whatever religion you want, or none, if you happen to be atheist. Nobody has said these people can't believe what they want. The right to assemble can be suspended if it's in the public interest, which it clearly is during a highly-contagious pandemic.

This whole mess could easily be solved with extra services to accommodate everyone (the church is required to only allow 15% of the normal occupancy capacity, properly distanced, and masked), going virtual, or - as is allowed in some places - having a drive-in service (though some jurisdictions have ruled those illegal as well).

But they refuse to do that, and it's causing a lot of ill-will all around.
 
We talked about this before, and it was pointed out to me that something like the current physical passport would also do the job.

If we make it a computer system accessible from all over the world that is a security nightmare waiting to happen. There is talk of a blockchain solution, but you know:
Spoiler Blockchain :
Israel have introduced a "Green Pass" if you have been vaccinated or recovered to access some hotels, gyms, sporting and culture events, and swimming pools:

Having administered Pfizer Inc vaccines to almost 40% of its 9 million population, Israel saw first signs of managing to outpace highly contagious virus variants, he added.
Israel has said it would issue an official app allowing users to link up to their Health Ministry files and show if they have been vaccinated against or recovered from COVID-19, with presumed immunity, in order to gain entry to leisure facilities.
Those to whom neither applies would be able to get a COVID-19 test and, if the result is negative, display it on the app for up to 72 hours of similar access, officials have said.

“The estimated date is the 23rd of the month,” Edelstein told Ynet TV. “We are talking about gyms, hotels, places like that, where using the Green Pass would be both appropriate and practicable.”
^ is from Reuters 2 weeks ago, Times of Israel say that app was released 4 days ago and on timetable, Al Jazeera 25 min video today, it looks like it worked and they are quite into it
 
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Israel have introduced a "Green Pass" if you have been vaccinated or recovered to access some hotels, gyms, sporting and culture events, and swimming pools:

Having administered Pfizer Inc vaccines to almost 40% of its 9 million population, Israel saw first signs of managing to outpace highly contagious virus variants, he added.
Israel has said it would issue an official app allowing users to link up to their Health Ministry files and show if they have been vaccinated against or recovered from COVID-19, with presumed immunity, in order to gain entry to leisure facilities.
Those to whom neither applies would be able to get a COVID-19 test and, if the result is negative, display it on the app for up to 72 hours of similar access, officials have said.

“The estimated date is the 23rd of the month,” Edelstein told Ynet TV. “We are talking about gyms, hotels, places like that, where using the Green Pass would be both appropriate and practicable.”
^ is from Reuters 2 weeks ago, Times of Israel say that app was released 4 days ago and on timetable, Al Jazeera today, not yet watched

anyone wanna bet Palestinians/Arab citizens of Israel are gonna have a lot of trouble gettin their green passes (and not just because Israel is apparently not bothering to vaccinate the Palestinians)?
 
anyone wanna bet Palestinians/Arab citizens of Israel are gonna have a lot of trouble gettin their green passes (and not just because Israel is apparently not bothering to vaccinate the Palestinians)?

Aren't vaccines supposed to not protect others? (just the person taking them, but they can still infect other people).
At any rate, Israel signed a number of deals with Greece, including a tourism pass for vaccinated israelis. I am pretty sure it won't end well.
(I also assume a lot of those israeli tourists will just arrive at my city, because it used to have tens of thousands of jews and was "The mother of Israel" before the father of land got here in WW2).
 
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