Cry Baby Boomers

[Joij21]

In Sweden the younger generations can expect to enjoy higher wages, better work conditions, higher life expectancy and better technology and the two last pretty much seems to apply worldwide.

I think Bugfatty is specifically trying to describe future generations from a North American/U.S. point of view. If you look at nations such as China, India, Vietnam, then yes future generations can only look up and up as their nations are developing and doing so at an ever accelerating rate. The boomers of those nations were a lot less privileged than the current younger generations and those to come. As for nations like Sweden it is essentially a welfare state with strong trade unions compared to the U.S. side of the west. So as you can imagine things would be quite different.

Where I disagree with Bugfatty is whether future generations in the U.S. are less fortunate because of boomers themselves. I instead believe it's more of a series of unfortunate events mostly starting with 9/11, the ever decreasing influence of the U.S., the rise of China, loss of collective freedoms, rising deficit, 2008/9 market crash, the slow recovery, 2020 coronavirus panic/market crash, etc. You could even go back as far as the de-unionizing and offshoring of labor back in the 1970's, but remember boomers weren't in power to make those decisions, they were still fairly young at the time. Instead it was silent generation executives and politicians who made those decisions in the 1970's that have now caused so many of the problems today.

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

Instead it was silent generation executives and politicians who made those decisions in the 1970's that have now caused so many of the problems today.

Even if what you say is true, which from what I can find in worst case is wage stagnation and that seems dubious since there is evidence that alot of stuff have become significantly cheaper in terms of hours worked for someone earning the average wage per hour, also it is hard to take account for the difference in technology. Atleast it is hard to say that there have been an absolute wage stagnation for all items. The median house price have gone up, however like always there is more to it, as for example the median house size have gone up, house owenership rate have changed little between 1960-2020 period, just up and down a few %.

Healthcare and college seems to have gotten more expensive, but for healthcare, I suspect people would pay more to have 2020 healthcare rather than 1980 healthcare and for collage is a long term investment, right now I think it is estimated a bachelor degree give around $1 000 000 more lifetime earnings.

The last thing assume that not only that the politics have gone in that direction but it will continue to go that direction no matter which generation or people are in power.

So my guess is that most people are better of in 2020 US compared to 60s, 70s and 80s, obviously there can be major exceptions but that is more or less always the case, but difference in technology, improvements in stuff like health expectancy and so on while no to me clear evidence that majority of people have gotten it worse or are poorer/more marginalized compared to the past.

Sure it can be alot better, but these doom/decline/collapse seems dubious. Sure you have actual dangerous stuff like climate change but that is different from the idea that a generation have taken power and using it to make further generations much poorer than they there when they was young.

But otherwise I think stuff like question stuff like why build bigger and bigger houses instead of building smaller houses at more affordable prices, or why not raise income taxes to fund universal healthcare or free collages? US also seems to have one of the worst minimum wage systems I have seen, other countries automatically adjust it every year or don't have a minimum wage.

US minimum wage is however a political tool and each time it change it change alot which is not good for business nor for workers or consumers. For business it mean they can see their salary cost jump massively, for workers it mean waiting a decade or so before next pay rise and for consumers it may mean massive changes in prices.

I thus don't see much of a reason to assume everything is getting worse and worse in US, which however don't mean that everything is getting better and better. I also don't think US problems are unsolvable.

 

[Hygro]

Wait, did you just suggest the internet & your cell phone don't help you found a business?

Yes.

Obviously it makes a lot of things way faster, like you don’t have to travel to an appointment to do paperwork. But you still have to do the paperwork. You get information faster but you still have to read the information, and your competition has information faster. If you were determined to make a product those steps weren’t going to stop you, and today, your determination is sapped by the sloth-inducing patterns.

I want to say a person like me is helped by the internet in making businesses. Surely my products are to be internet based. But the drive was already there and I’d have found other product ideas.

But I dare say the real switch, the real argument, the change from a high savings high wage economy to a low wage, debt economy.

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

Yes.

Obviously it makes a lot of things way faster, like you don’t have to travel to an appointment to do paperwork. But you still have to do the paperwork. You get information faster but you still have to read the information, and your competition has information faster. If you were determined to make a product those steps weren’t going to stop you, and today, your determination is sapped by the sloth-inducing patterns.

I want to say a person like me is helped by the internet in making businesses. Surely my products are to be internet based. But the drive was already there and I’d have found other product ideas.

But I dare say the real switch, the real argument, the change from a high savings high wage economy to a low wage, debt economy.

I think you underestimate the ability to have access to basically a world of information, including various skills that can be applied to start a bussiness and also all possible bussines opportunities the internet itself open up and often for low cost, if anything internet make skills accessible for a larger group of people.

Debt yes, probably mostly due to more and more people go to college: https://www.statista.com/statistics...nment-of-college-diploma-or-higher-by-gender/

Lower wage, most likely no. In terms hours worked alot of items are far cheaper today, stuff like computers, air conditioners, tv are all far cheaper today. The difference in what items a household had in 70s vs today is quite significant, even the poor households in US today beat the median 70s household in many items. People spend less % of their money on food (sure you can say that people have less children but I'm not sure how big the difference is). Median house price is up but the median house size have increased, this may mean people want to live in bigger but more expensive houses, even as average household size is going down.

Keep in mind that it is actually hard to estimate inflation and inflation don't talk about the technological difference. Furthermore if somebody by a car for $100 000 and another a car for $10 000, how do you messure inflation? Argubly the absolute difference in material stuff have gone down (even if wealth inquallity have gone up). Today the poor often own cars, computers and many stuff that was in the past something maybe only the rich could own, and while the rich own much more expensive stuff, the difference between not owning or owning is far greater than the difference between cheap and expensive items.

Basically we can't really say how much a dollar was worth in 1960, 1970 and so on in todays money because prices for items have changed alot relative each other and other stuff was not even available. Some things like healthcare is both better but also more expensive, but I suspect most people rather want good healthcare over cheap healthcare.

 

[Hrothbern]

Keep in mind that it is actually hard to estimate inflation and inflation don't talk about the technological difference. Furthermore if somebody by a car for $100 000 and another a car for $10 000, how do you messure inflation?

Productivity increases yoy lead to massive deflation on many goods.

If cars with the same features as in 1980 would be manufactured now, the cost per car would be massively lower.
But also the turnover and number of employees of the car manufacturers and their suppliers would be massively lower.
=> the number of features of cars is a market driven element being a compromise between the "grow or whither" of the producing companies on the one hand and the amount of money consumers want to spend on "a car" in competition with other attractive goods (like since then for example smart phones and electronis) on the other hand.

Inflation calculations are a kind of voodoo. No absolutes. Only comparisons at arms lenght between now, yesterday and tomorrow possible. The whole system floating.

 

[Narz]

Kids today have it worse than their elders cuz back in the day it wasn't hip to feel sorry for yourself all day, now you can do it, get a bunch of likes, wallowing in your own **** while claiming it's someone else's.

Forget about trying to find some first cause, stop making enemies and be the change you want to see in the world. Mofoin' crybabies, don't you notice its not working?

 

[Narz]

If cars with the same features as in 1980 would be manufactured now, the cost per car would be massively lower.

Most of these new features are not particularly impressive. Cruise control is the only useful feature for cars invented since the 80s. I guess backup cams are good for the elderly.

Wake me up when we can buy cars that drive themselves

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

Here are some prices of TV in 1968 https://www.radios-tv.co.uk/early-colour-tv-prices/, looking at websites what TV cost today seems to give between £150 to £500.

In the 60s, the annual salary in UK was something like £1000, today it is around £30 000. So in the 60s it is probably fair to say that something as basic as a TV was a luxury good in UK, now it is a rather cheap consumer good.

Obviously we can ask if we need TV, but the point is that atleast some stuff, probably alot of stuff that today are common was in the past much more expensive, which mean wages have not stagnated even if inflation estimate say so.

Most of these new features are not particularly impressive. Cruise control is the only useful feature for cars invented since the 80s. I guess backup cams are good for the elderly.

Wake me up when we can buy cars that drive themselves

I suspect much of the difference between older and modern cars is in safety features, like the number of people dying per number of cars on the roads in Sweden have gone down like 33 times since 1950. Also cars have generally become more and more fuel efficient and I would also say more powerful.

Like old cars may not collapse if they collide which mean the collision forces will hit the people in the car, while modern cars are often or always designed to collapse so that forces are absorbed.

Even in the 20s, 30s videos you can hear how it is specifically mention two things about future cars, safer and more aerodynamic.

 

[Hygro]

I think you underestimate the ability to have access to basically a world of information, including various skills that can be applied to start a bussiness and also all possible bussines opportunities the internet itself open up and often for low cost, if anything internet make skills accessible for a larger group of people.

Debt yes, probably mostly due to more and more people go to college: https://www.statista.com/statistics...nment-of-college-diploma-or-higher-by-gender/

Lower wage, most likely no. In terms hours worked alot of items are far cheaper today, stuff like computers, air conditioners, tv are all far cheaper today. The difference in what items a household had in 70s vs today is quite significant, even the poor households in US today beat the median 70s household in many items. People spend less % of their money on food (sure you can say that people have less children but I'm not sure how big the difference is). Median house price is up but the median house size have increased, this may mean people want to live in bigger but more expensive houses, even as average household size is going down.

Keep in mind that it is actually hard to estimate inflation and inflation don't talk about the technological difference. Furthermore if somebody by a car for $100 000 and another a car for $10 000, how do you messure inflation? Argubly the absolute difference in material stuff have gone down (even if wealth inquallity have gone up). Today the poor often own cars, computers and many stuff that was in the past something maybe only the rich could own, and while the rich own much more expensive stuff, the difference between not owning or owning is far greater than the difference between cheap and expensive items.

Basically we can't really say how much a dollar was worth in 1960, 1970 and so on in todays money because prices for items have changed alot relative each other and other stuff was not even available. Some things like healthcare is both better but also more expensive, but I suspect most people rather want good healthcare over cheap healthcare.

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

View attachment 566765

I'm not sure what firm entry and exit rate % actually mean, however my guess is what is happening is that alot of inefficient familiy business dissolve as the economy become more and more urbanized, which is actually a good thing. Generally the poorer/less productive the economy is the more self owned business there will be. Large business can concentrate resources and especially research effort which is important in a high tech economy.
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/237695

Also this don't actually say anything about how internet have impacted what business are created, instead of a local store, maybe now the new business is stuff like about various software which likely require many more employees but are also much more economically productive. As stuff become more and more advanced and require more and more specialization, will either drive towards these huge business we see today or towards a bunch of smaller specialized business which are probably often bought up by the larger ones.

Also it is difficult to know what is a business and what is an employee, some are basically both.

 

[Hygro]

I think you underestimate the ability to have access to basically a world of information, including various skills that can be applied to start a bussiness and also all possible bussines opportunities the internet itself open up and often for low cost, if anything internet make skills accessible for a larger group of people.

If your reasoning starts from thinking I underestimate how much faster information is, that should be the clue.

Debt yes, probably mostly due to more and more people go to college: https://www.statista.com/statistics...nment-of-college-diploma-or-higher-by-gender/

Because of everything. Mortgages, insurance costs, out of pocket medical, the reduction of wages for many jobs, education, everything.

Lower wage, most likely no. In terms hours worked alot of items are far cheaper today, stuff like computers, air conditioners, tv are all far cheaper today. The difference in what items a household had in 70s vs today is quite significant, even the poor households in US today beat the median 70s household in many items. People spend less % of their money on food (sure you can say that people have less children but I'm not sure how big the difference is). Median house price is up but the median house size have increased, this may mean people want to live in bigger but more expensive houses, even as average household size is going down.

Keep in mind that it is actually hard to estimate inflation and inflation don't talk about the technological difference. Furthermore if somebody by a car for $100 000 and another a car for $10 000, how do you messure inflation? Argubly the absolute difference in material stuff have gone down (even if wealth inquallity have gone up). Today the poor often own cars, computers and many stuff that was in the past something maybe only the rich could own, and while the rich own much more expensive stuff, the difference between not owning or owning is far greater than the difference between cheap and expensive items.

Basically we can't really say how much a dollar was worth in 1960, 1970 and so on in todays money because prices for items have changed alot relative each other and other stuff was not even available. Some things like healthcare is both better but also more expensive, but I suspect most people rather want good healthcare over cheap healthcare.

None of these cheaper things has made becoming an successful entrepreneur more attainable. Indeed, that was the original point. I agree with what you are saying about prices of goods and kinds of goods and how measuring inflation is pretty sus.

But the basic argument is "entrepreneurship is easier because the internet" isn't bearing out any aggregate or meaningful practice. The only people who can do it are high energy people, for whom going to the library or the lawyer was never an impediment, and the internet and computer age has made people much lazier than it has made people faster. I'm typing from bed. If it wasn't for this $3 coffee drink I'd be too lazy to respond to you and still refreshing reddit. I'm not going to start a business until I'm at least sitting up. But first let me endlessly scroll reddit.

I'm not sure what firm entry and exit rate % actually mean, however my guess is what is happening is that alot of inefficient familiy business dissolve as the economy become more and more urbanized, which is actually a good thing. Generally the poorer/less productive the economy is the more self owned business there will be. Large business can concentrate resources and especially research effort which is important in a high tech economy.
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/237695

Also this don't actually say anything about how internet have impacted what business are created, instead of a local store, maybe now the new business is stuff like about various software which likely require many more employees but are also much more economically productive. As stuff become more and more advanced and require more and more specialization, will either drive towards these huge business we see today or towards a bunch of smaller specialized business which are probably often bought up by the larger ones.

Also it is difficult to know what is a business and what is an employee, some are basically both.

You are now saying the new economy is reducing entrepreneurship in favor of large business.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Baby Boomers Deal With Covid-19’s Financial Hit

BY CLARE ANSBERRY

After Sue Sweetra was laid off because of the pandemic, the 56-year-old widow began volunteering regularly at a free farmers market, where she and other volunteers received boxes of potatoes, onions, turkey and cheese.

“That helped stretch my budget,” says Ms. Sweetra, who lost her job as an operating-room nurse when all elective surgery was canceled. “I spent $40 on groceries in May.” Not knowing when or if she would be called back to work, Ms. Sweetra also decided to sell the Crested Butte, Colo., home she shared with her late husband and move into a smaller place.

The pandemic has left many people at or near retirement age out of work and unexpectedly living on a shoestring budget. They’re cutting their high-speed internet and life-insurance premiums. Frills like subscriptions are gone. About 58% of baby boomers saw their jobs negatively affected by Covid-19, according to a survey by Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies.

Many are too young to collect Social Security, which can begin at 62, or use Medicare, which starts at 65, and don’t have enough money set aside. Less than half of working Americans over 60 feel their retirement savings are on track, and 13% had no retirement savings, according to a 2019 report by the Federal Reserve.

The stock market has recovered its losses from earlier this year, which helps those who have 401(k) or other retirement accounts, but not everyone has those investments. Moreover, financial advisers warn against prematurely tapping retirement savings.

Getting a new job at their age can be difficult. “Once an older person loses his or her job, it takes longer to find a new one,” says Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. More than half of older workers are in jobs that can’t be done from home and with Covid-19 riskier for older adults, they’re concerned about returning to the workplace. “You either face a health risk of returning to work too early or an economic risk of running out of money,” she says.

Everyone defines shoestring differently, and what is a pared-down budget for one person might be extravagant to another. Where people live makes a difference: A study released in June found that $1 million in savings lasts 23 years in Mississippi compared with 10 years in Hawaii. Even those who began preparing for retirement in their mid-20s find plans upended by the pandemic. Gary Stigen, 61, and his wife, Liz, 59, began meeting with financial advisers soon after they married and saved regularly. Over the years, the couple, who live in Coon Rapids, Minn., invested in vacation property, buying and fixing up cabins and mobile homes in Minnesota and Florida. They now own a cabin by Lake Augusta in Minnesota and are paying off a house in Florida. They planned to sell their family home this year to pay off the Florida mortgage.

Everything is on hold. Mr. Stigen’s position as regional facility manager at Cabela’s, an outdoor-recreation retailer, was eliminated in coronavirus-related downsizing, and he hasn’t found another job. Ms. Stigen hasn’t returned to her part-time job as a hair stylist or gone back to volunteering with the Salvation Army food shelf, because she cares for her 83-year-old mother, who has stage 4 lung cancer and is concerned about contagion. Mr. Stigen started a spending journal. They cut cable TV and high-speed internet service. They quit the gym. They’ve been relying on unemployment insurance and Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and obtained health coverage through the MinnesotaCare program. “We are getting by day by day,” says Mr. Stigen. “I’m not sure how we are going to pay all our expenses until we get through this Covid mess.” Many who are still working are cutting discretionary expenses because they doubt the economy will bounce back quickly, which could jeopardize their jobs.

Dave Wysocki, 66, was laid off July 1, ending a 32-year career working in the box office and finance department of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Although he receives about $4,000 a month in pension and Social Security funds, he monitors spending carefully, knowing how quickly it adds up. Two years ago, he had $20,000 in car and home-equity debt and needed budget counseling from a financial coach. “I assign each dollar to a category— food, transportation, utilities,” he says. Money not used goes into an “Unspent Account” and tapped for one-time expenses.

He’d like another job, ideally a position that involves helping others, but isn’t sure given the economy, Covid-19 and age, whether that’s doable. “Can I go back to work somewhere?” he says. “By no means, at 66, am I ready to say I will never work again.” Ms. Sweetra, the operating-room nurse, worked at a Denver hospital and her husband, who was 16 years older, worked at Lockheed Martin. After he received an early-retirement package, the couple moved to Crested Butte. When he died in 2015, her emotional world unraveled and so did her financial one because she was no longer receiving his Social Security, which was 40% of their income. She tapped her retirement savings to help pay bills and told her friend Bev Miller, who is also a financial coach, “I’m bleeding money and don’t know how to stop.” Ms. Miller helped Ms. Sweetra put together a budget and create an emergency fund, which grew to $24,000.

In January 2019, Ms. Sweetra, a non-smoker and active hiker and skier, was diagnosed with lung cancer and out of work for 8 months. She returned to work in October, only to be laid off again in March. Her part-time job in Crested Butte as a dental assistant also ended. Her emergency fund dwindled to $3,000. She decided to sell her house in Crested Butte and is getting ready to move to a smaller house. It wasn’t an easy decision. She and husband bought the Crested Butte house as their dream retirement home. It will always remain special, she says, but “it’s time for me to make my own dreams.”








_ Sue Sweetra, here holding a picture of her late husband, Clifford, is packing for a move to a less-expensive place. _ Dave Wysocki, 66, was laid off July 1 from his job with the Pittsburgh Pirates, ending a 32-year career.

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

Because of everything. Mortgages, insurance costs, out of pocket medical, the reduction of wages for many jobs, education, everything.

Saying this without giving any real data that this is true in the first place, especially everything when I could find information that this is clearly not the case with for example TV.

I feel like many people simply make up what they think is the truth just to fit their view of an society that are working against them. This is arguably a very serious issue, if people can get huge followings by making up facts, think about all dangerous things that can happen.

The idea that past people had it easy or was richer compared to today don't really seems to hold up if you actually read about the past.

 

[Birdjaguar]

The idea that past people had it easy or was richer compared to today don't really seems to hold up if you actually read about the past.

And all of that is totally dependent upon which people you choose to talk about. I'm pretty sure that the Rockefellers of the 1950s lived better than I do now even if they didn't have cell phones or computers. One can use averages, but that is fraught with problems too. The best comparisons would be like group to like group.

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

A comparison is always going to be difficult which is how people can "create" truths. A major issue is how to compare technology, but inflation and wages is also hard to compare, especially inflation seems really hard to get accurate and even if we can get a perfect measurement of it, we still have the technology problem.

The idea that the difference between present and past is just wage vs price is just wrong, there are some major differences such as life expectency, like today many poor countries have higher life expectency than the rich countries did in 1950 so how do you measure that?

Same with stuff like car safety or stuff that try to reduce environment damage. Wages is also hard to compare because work compensation is not just based on monetary payment and this non monetary payment have grown as part of the compensation, likely due to tax advantages, but it is still the employer that pays. Also there is stuff like how much somebody work, what age they started to work and at what age they retire as well as how dangerous the work is and many more factors.

I suspect the younger generations tend to start work later and later, due to stuff like college but on other hand probably stay healthier and able to work at older age, which should push wages towards the older age groups instead of the younger age groups which may be how stuff worked in past when people probably retired at much younger age than today.

 

[El_Machinae]

So ... Elizabeth Warren's pre-politician lectures are basically part of the conversation you guys are having. Super-recommend watching a couple when she's giving talks at universities for either the public or students.

The information revolution should cause 'growth' through innovation and efficiency. But it needn't cause or actually aid entrepreneurship. Those are different things.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Millennials Help Power This Year’s Housing-Market Rebound
Generation that was slow to enter U.S. housing market now accounts for more than half of all new home loans

Millennials, long viewed as perennial home renters who were reluctant or unable to buy, are now emerging as a driving force in the U.S. housing market’s recent recovery.

Demand from millennials, who today range from their mid-20s to late 30s, has been increasingly important to the housing market since at least the middle of the last decade. But more recently, these new homeowners have been pushing aside older generations to become an even bigger influence.

Millennials reached a housing milestone early last year when the group first accounted for more than half of all new home loans, and they consistently held above that level in the first months of this year, the most recent period for which data are available, according to Realtor.com. The generation made up 38% of home buyers in the year that ended July 2019, up from 32% in 2015, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Moving Up: Millennials account for more than half of new mortgage loans.

Share of new mortgages by generation. Source: Realtor.com

• Silent generation (before 1946) 1.5%
• Baby boomers (1946-64) 14.6%
• Generation X (1965-80) 30.3%
• Millennials (1981-96) 53.1
• Generation Z (1997-2012) 2.1%

The group last year also surpassed baby boomers as the biggest living adult generation in the U.S., according to the Pew Research Center. The largest cohort of millennial births was in 1990, Pew said, meaning that group turns 30 sometime this year. “We anticipate as they turn 31 and 32, we’ll just see home buying demand grow,” said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp. Millennials could be responsible for at least 15 million home sales in the next decade, the firm said.

Rising millennial home ownership challenges years of speculation after the 2007-09 recession that millennials would be stuck renting perpetually, hampered by student-loan debt and wary of the housing market after the foreclosure crisis.

That raised questions about how millennials would build nest eggs, because home ownership has commonly been viewed as a pillar of wealth creation. Now, brokers and economists say millennials’ home buying interest was simply delayed. Older millennials are marrying and having children later in life than previous generations, after finishing their education and building up savings.

That growing demand is compounded by younger millennials, who are now entering their 30s and starting to buy homes more actively. That is more in line with the ages at which many baby boomers and Generation X, the group born before millennials, began buying home.

“Millennials, they’re roaring into home buying age,” said Rick Arvielo, chief executive of mortgage lender New American Funding. “What the industry’s been talking about for a decade is whether they’re going to follow their predecessor generations in terms of their desire to own homes,” he said, adding, “Yeah, they do—they have the same desires.”

Younger buyers were a big reason why home sales continued on the path to recovery in July. Sales of previously owned homes surged almost 25% in July to their highest seasonally adjusted annual rate since December 2006. First-time buyers accounted for 34% of sales in July, up from 32% a year earlier, NAR said.

Low interest rates, and a desire for more space as the coronavirus pandemic leads people to spend more time at home, are boosting demand for homeownership among Americans of all ages. Many millennials have additional motivations, especially parents of young or growing families.Sandra Martinez-Gonzalez, who is 32 years old and lives in Las Vegas, used to think she didn’t want to own a home. She preferred the freedom to pick up and move. But when she started looking for a new place to rent at the beginning of the year, she realized buying would be cheaper than renting in her neighborhood.

Ms. Martinez-Gonzalez and her husband moved into their first home with their 2-year-old daughter in July. “It feels amazing,” she said, citing the bigger space and a home office. “Now that we have a home it kind of feels like: Why didn’t we do this sooner?”

A strong housing market can be a positive sign for the economy, as home purchases can lead to increased spending on furniture, appliances and renovations. Home builders have also expanded activity in response to the demand. Some equity analysts have pointed to a strengthening housing market as a reason for the U.S. stock market’s resurgence, despite high unemployment and concerns about the continuing pandemic.

There’s no guarantee millennials’ robust demand will last. The recession has been a major financial setback for millions of younger workers who lost their jobs in recent months. A persistently high unemployment rate among millennials could slow home buying among the group in coming years.

For those who remain employed, ultra low interest rates offer an additional incentive to buy, as they can reduce monthly payments and make homeownership more affordable. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 2.99% last week, near record lows, said mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac.

Still, housing prices have risen relative to incomes in the past decade, making a down payment a big hurdle for many millennials, especially those with student-loan debt. In the year that ended in July 2019, more than one in five buyers in their 20s and 30s used a gift from family or friends for their down payment, according to the NAR.

Some millennials are willing to move out of state to become homeowners. Rachelle Nelson and Phillip Nelson opted to build up savings rather than buy a house when they got married in 2013. Then home prices in Fort Collins, Colo., became too high for them to afford, said Ms. Nelson, who is 28. When Mr. Nelson got a new job in June, they started shopping in Cheyenne, Wyo.

They closed on a two-story home in Cheyenne last month. “We had been wanting to buy for a long time,” Ms. Nelson said. “With his new job that he got, it was what we needed in order to actually go forward.”

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Millennials Help Power This Year’s Housing-Market Rebound
Generation that was slow to enter U.S. housing market now accounts for more than half of all new home loans

It'd be interesting to see how these numbers break down in a more granular fashion.

Are the home-buying millenials a large subset of the group or just the rich ones? And how does this compare to previous generations? Saying that millenials are now the biggest home buying group doesn't mean too much given it's the largest living cohort and they've now reached middle age. What would be instructive is to know whether or not homeownership has grown or shrunk as a % of that cohort, and how that % compares to previous cohorts at this age. I'd also be interested to know what age the average first-time millenial homeowner is and how that compares to previous cohorts when they entered the homeownership market.

Basically, I suspect that this good news glosses over the fact that these statistics have gotten worse for this generation - that only the upper middle and upper class millenials are really doing well but because there are so many it makes the numbers look good if you don't break down the numbers at a lower level.

I do think that the rise of remote work will see a sustained boom in homeownership in rural and suburban areas as people opt for cheaper housing - if the rise in remote work can be sustained. I think that's a dubious proposition at best. Not that remote work will entirely go away but that as the virus retreats, more and more companies will go back to enforcing on-premises work. I personally believe the older managers and executives who run corporations are particularly resistant to remote work and will move to restrict it as soon as practical.

In any case the article is good news and I don't mean to be all gloom about it; I just have suspicions that things are only rosy in a skin-deep fashion.

 

[Birdjaguar]

@hobbsyoyo this data is over a year old, but it is interesting.

https://www.homes.com/blog/2019/03/2019-home-ownership-trends-by-age-and-income/

This link has a nice ownership graph at the top.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/home-ownership-rate

 

[Birdjaguar]

This is an interesting list of home ownership around the world. I was surprised to see that Eastern Europe has the highest rates, but most of the data is 2 years old. Except the US where it is current.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/home-ownership-rate?continent=europe