current lybian situation in civ5 terms

[Nicol.Bolas]

so I decided to make this mirror thread to civ4 thread:

europe and united states are trying to intervene but all of the hexes representing libya are carpet-of-doomed by congestion of both partisan and kaddafis troops, so nothing can get thorough

 

[Andvare]

Libya

Lybia

 

[Samuil]

so I decided to make this mirror thread to civ4 thread:

europe and united states are trying to intervene but all of the hexes representing libya are carpet-of-doomed by congestion of both partisan and kaddafis troops, so nothing can get thorough

if I learned anything about the EU is that when it comes to foreign policy and actions it is just too disorganized... US, on he other hand, like North Korea are very very trigger happy though, but their troops are deployed elsewhere...

On topic though (even though the topic is off topic), Lybia has a huge territory, so in terms of a huge map, unlikely that all tiles are congested... just saying

 

[Roller123]

Libya has Oil, lots of it. I wouldnt be surprised if weapons of mass destruction are next to be found there.

 

[Dark_Jedi06]

DENOUNCE.

So much so that the notification log is clogging up the right part of the screen.

 

[Gilgamesch]

Your friends has find a way to denounce you.
No, what happens in lybya is a shame, even if the whole world is watching, and do nothing.
Of course the fight with german(not only, f.e. u.s.) weapons against civilian.
But the greatest crime is, to use aircraft against the own people(or general killing other people for some reason).
When the problems getting hotter in africa and the middle east, than this can cause the 3 world war!

 

[CYZ]

I think Libia just got screwed as al the other AI just denounced them. Diplomacy needs to be fixed

 

[Evilsooty]

Funny you should say that, Roller.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...y-intervention-after-mustard-gas-warning.html

'Despite a promise in 2003 to give up weapons of mass destruction, Gaddafi is thought to have retained as much as 14 tons of the chemicals required to create mustard gas. '

 

[CYZ]

Funny you should say that, Roller.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...y-intervention-after-mustard-gas-warning.html

'Despite a promise in 2003 to give up weapons of mass destruction, Gaddafi is thought to have retained as much as 14 tons of the chemicals required to create mustard gas. '

Though on a sidenote. It seems he doesn't have any way of using it as he doesn't have the right delivery systems.

 

[Bibor]

For all intents and purposes, in CIV5 terms - if the rebels manage to hold off Gadaffi's forces - are going to become an US puppet like Iraq.

Attacker civ = rebel forces
Defender civ = Gadaffi's forces

In steps, it goes something like this:
1. For every country that is not in Liberty and Christian Piety like yourself keep a healthy stash of plausible causes to invade, just in case. Those civs that go for order and tradition are nasty in particular. The info doesn't need to be 100% accurate. It might even be a straight lie. Readers skip words like though to be and may have anyway. Manhattan project being built is the flavor of the month. Ignore the fact that you completed it 60 years ago yourself. I guess being the only country to actually used nukes, twice, gives you special insight into what CIV will act responsibly and which won't.

2. Determine if the defending CIV has valuable luxury or strategic resources. If it has close to none, ignore the whole deal and toss in a few harsh words and grab some trade deals out of it when the situation is about to end. DO NOT denounce! Know who's going to win first! Oh, some other parties that might have some interest in the guys's lands will probably nag you about joining up. Ignore them.

3. After the conflict starts, be harsh on words and speak like you never commited atrocities yourself. Who cares that you wiped out a few city-states yourself barely 40 turns go.

4. Wait a bit to see who's going to get the upper hand in the conflict. No point in helping someone who isn't resourceful, right?

5. If the attackers are getting the upper hand (and the defender has no means to organize any form of decent defense) then declare and send in troops. Use mercenaries for the really dirty work.

6. Present the bill for troop deployment to the winning side, obviously inflate the costs by at least a 1000% so they keep paying you in their resource (the one you went in for in the first place) for at least 200 turns.

8. Use your new political connections to make sure that all parties buy your happiness and strategic resources after the war.

 

[Evilsooty]

But actual capability, intention and evidence are completely irrelevant when the enemy happens to be sitting on oil supplies crucial to the world's economy :0

If it turns into a full-blown civil war that disrupts oil supplies even further it should be amusing to hear what the casus belli for the Western governments is. I'm putting my money on one or both of the below:

(a) Weapons of mass destruction of some vague and unlocatable kind that will later be forgotten about in order to emphasise the true justification (b).

(b) Humanitarian reasons (We are only intervening to stop the bloodshed. Aren't we nice???)

 

[Me,myself,and,I]

Heck I'm all for overthrowing Gaddafi simply because A) The Rebels have not only declared a republic but actually function like one instead of being a "republic" (read kingdom) and B) Gaddafi eliminate Al-Quida and the Muslim brotherhood in Libya.

However I think actually invading would be a mistake. We should ship the rebels weapons and possibly have some officers train them to be more effective. After all two non radical democracies in North Africa/ the Middle East can only be a win for us.

In ciV terms I would gift units to the rebels and have them bump of the loyalists for me.

 

[Dark_Jedi06]

The sheer number of ways that Libya/Libyan has been spelled in such a short number of posts is shocking.

 

[awesome]

um...libbeeah?

 

[Kamamura]

In ciV terms I would gift units to the rebels and have them bump of the loyalists for me.

Which could be a mistake, as western leaders realize quite well. Why?

Because Western world depends on abundant, cheap oil it possesses no more. The 'best practice' on how to obtain it is to corrupt a friendly dictator, ship him toys of choice, and get the mineral wealth of his country cheaply. Good example of this is Saudi Arabia, Niger Delta, Iraq (before Saddam became "enemy"), Iran (where CIA overthrew and imprisoned Mossadek, but it back backfired in a regime of hostile theocracy), Chile etc. The common people usually benefit very little from the wealth of their land.

Now if popular uprising spreads across the Arab countries and wins, a new govt from their ranks will probably want to invest in their own infrastructure, factories, agriculture, etc. That means more oil for domestic use, and much, much less for export. Considering today's market volatility and supply-demand tension, you can imagine what would happen to oil price.

So we can't really use the Civ model, because unlike in Civ, where Oil is only a resource needed for advanced military units, in real world, all those cute little farms, factories, hospitals, airports need it and depend on it.

 

[awesome]

i wonder how this will affect talks on forming that islamic union

 

[skallben]

Someone broke the game rules by opening map editor and made following changes:

1. Tripoli is a becomes a civ with Gadaffi getting same personality as Monty. The civ is tiny with only one city but just gained some units from friendly city-states south of Sahara.

2. The rest of the country, Libya is a city-state with riflemen and a anti-aircraft gun. Libya recieve a great artist (Al-Jazeera) and expands it's borders towards Tripoli.

The next few turns:

Tripoli attacks Libya with Jet fighters, Gunships and tanks and try to puppet Libyan cities but they only get taken back again by Libyan riflemen. Result is that the cities lose population and both side lose units. Lack of money results in lost maritime allies and potential starvation. Tripoli tries to destroy tile improvements in Libya.

Everyone denounces Tripoli, US and EU move a couple of destroyers to the coast and plan to eventually move in aircraft and/or bribe Libya to ally so they can have their oil in the future. It seems this far that little action is expected from EU nor US until both sides have killed off more of eachothers units. Libya has expanded in Liberty and Freedom branches. Western powers are afraid they will move down Piety but it's more likely to be Order along with the allready started branches.

China is a wildcard and might drop a great merchant to ally with Libya but it is still a contested theory. With Libya having closer links to Europe in the past, it is likely EU will be gifting units and joining the war along with bribes to secure thie relationship. It's worth noting that neither EU nor US are likely to generate a great merchant, their economies are still in Civilization 4 mode and have huge inflation issues with their corporation upkeeps. US even forgot to build Wall Street in their capital.

 

[Me,myself,and,I]

Which could be a mistake, as western leaders realize quite well. Why?

Because Western world depends on abundant, cheap oil it possesses no more. The 'best practice' on how to obtain it is to corrupt a friendly dictator, ship him toys of choice, and get the mineral wealth of his country cheaply. Good example of this is Saudi Arabia, Niger Delta, Iraq (before Saddam became "enemy"), Iran (where CIA overthrew and imprisoned Mossadek, but it back backfired in a regime of hostile theocracy), Chile etc. The common people usually benefit very little from the wealth of their land.

Now if popular uprising spreads across the Arab countries and wins, a new govt from their ranks will probably want to invest in their own infrastructure, factories, agriculture, etc. That means more oil for domestic use, and much, much less for export. Considering today's market volatility and supply-demand tension, you can imagine what would happen to oil price.

So we can't really use the Civ model, because unlike in Civ, where Oil is only a resource needed for advanced military units, in real world, all those cute little farms, factories, hospitals, airports need it and depend on it.

Well if all goes well it will force us to drill our oil. Which can only be a good thing in my book.

In the civ and the real world model what we are doing is stupid any way. Why pay for someone else's oil when we got plenty right here in the states.

 

[Dearmad]

Libya is more like a Tropico 3 situation than Civ V.

 

[Kamamura]

Well if all goes well it will force us to drill our oil. Which can only be a good thing in my book.

In the civ and the real world model what we are doing is stupid any way. Why pay for someone else's oil when we got plenty right here in the states.

I must confess I don't really know what you are talking about. US production of conventional oil is on the decline since... the end of 70s?

So you must be probably talking about non-conventional oil like tar sands or oil shales. However, there is a problem with those resources, and that is called low Energy Return on Investment (EROI). You see, the more energy you have to invest to get energy, the less you have for industry, transport, etc. It also means that to stay at the same level of net energy, you have to increase production of lower-EROI sources.

Early oil had EROI about 100:1. Today it's something more than 10:1 from old, large fields. Tar sands have about 4:1 depending on technologies used (pyrolysis is very energy intensive). So to match the conventional oil, you have to produce roughly 2-3 times more tar sands (that's only rough estimate to illustrate the problem).

Now USA consumes more than 20 millions of barrels daily. More than 60 percent is imported. The larges tar sands operations in Alberta produce just hundreds of thousands of barrels daily, and the production cannot be scaled easily (huge investments in water, energy, land destruction).

I don't really think increasing US domestic production to cover the imports is possible. I don't think that the non-conventional oil production can be scaled quickly enough to offset the decline of the old fields once it starts - and that may be as early as next 2-5 years.

Just brief you with the important details, you know.