Gothmog
Dread Enforcer
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2002
- Messages
- 3,352
Hey all, I've been trying to track this one down for some time. We all know (or should know) the flip probability formula.
P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/D
where:
P = probability that it will flip this turn
F = # foreigners, with resistors counting double
T = # working tiles under foreign control
Cc = 2 if foreign civ has more local culture than you, 1 otherwise
H = .5 for WLTKD, 2 for disorder, 1 otherwise
Cte = Total culture of the foreign civ
Cty = Total culture of your civ
G = # garrison units
D = factor based on relative distance to capitals
Now it occured to me early on that the base chance for a flip must be in there somewhere, most likely in the value of D (I discuss it when I first was presented with the formula by Sullla during the SG RBE3). I think I once saw a post by Arathorn where he stated that the base value of D is 2000. But I have never been able to find that post again to confirm it. Recently I saw a post by TheNiceOne where he stated, in so many words:
The base value for D is 2000 and can be modified by a factor of 0.25 4.0 depending on relative distance (so possible values are from 500 8000 ).
Great! Some agreement and a reasonable value (0.05% flip chance).
So my question is, where did they find out this number? Where did the information on the limits to D come from? Also there has been some anicdotal evidence that the flip chances in PTW are a bit smaller (although my theory is that we have just learned to deal with it better), so are these values current to PTW?
Also, to 'Killer' - this could be added to the FAQ (IMO).
Thanks in advance for any responces: Gothmog.
P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/D
where:
P = probability that it will flip this turn
F = # foreigners, with resistors counting double
T = # working tiles under foreign control
Cc = 2 if foreign civ has more local culture than you, 1 otherwise
H = .5 for WLTKD, 2 for disorder, 1 otherwise
Cte = Total culture of the foreign civ
Cty = Total culture of your civ
G = # garrison units
D = factor based on relative distance to capitals
Now it occured to me early on that the base chance for a flip must be in there somewhere, most likely in the value of D (I discuss it when I first was presented with the formula by Sullla during the SG RBE3). I think I once saw a post by Arathorn where he stated that the base value of D is 2000. But I have never been able to find that post again to confirm it. Recently I saw a post by TheNiceOne where he stated, in so many words:
The base value for D is 2000 and can be modified by a factor of 0.25 4.0 depending on relative distance (so possible values are from 500 8000 ).
Great! Some agreement and a reasonable value (0.05% flip chance).
So my question is, where did they find out this number? Where did the information on the limits to D come from? Also there has been some anicdotal evidence that the flip chances in PTW are a bit smaller (although my theory is that we have just learned to deal with it better), so are these values current to PTW?
Also, to 'Killer' - this could be added to the FAQ (IMO).
Thanks in advance for any responces: Gothmog.