D=2000, in flip formula

Discussion in 'Civ3 - General Discussions' started by Gothmog, Jan 17, 2003.

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Hey all, I've been trying to track this one down for some time. We all know (or should know) the flip probability formula.

P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/D

where:
P = probability that it will flip this turn
F = # foreigners, with resistors counting double
T = # working tiles under foreign control
Cc = 2 if foreign civ has more local culture than you, 1 otherwise
H = .5 for WLTKD, 2 for disorder, 1 otherwise
Cte = Total culture of the foreign civ
Cty = Total culture of your civ
G = # garrison units
D = factor based on relative distance to capitals

Now it occured to me early on that the base chance for a flip must be in there somewhere, most likely in the value of D (I discuss it when I first was presented with the formula by Sullla during the SG RBE3). I think I once saw a post by Arathorn where he stated that the base value of D is 2000. But I have never been able to find that post again to confirm it. Recently I saw a post by TheNiceOne where he stated, in so many words:

The base value for D is 2000 and can be modified by a factor of 0.25  4.0 depending on relative distance (so possible values are from 500  8000 ).

Great! Some agreement and a reasonable value (0.05% flip chance).

So my question is, where did they find out this number? Where did the information on the limits to D come from? Also there has been some anicdotal evidence that the flip chances in PTW are a bit smaller (although my theory is that we have just learned to deal with it better), so are these values current to PTW?

Also, to 'Killer' - this could be added to the FAQ (IMO).

Thanks in advance for any responces: Gothmog.

2. Lt. 'Killer' M.Chieftain

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gothmog, if this info will be substanciated somehow, I will gladly add the value to the FAQ. Otherwise I will add it as a rumor. Let's give this a few days.....

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I agree, that is why I've posted it in this thread. We need more than, the # is such and such. We need data.

4. SanPellegrinoWanderer

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wasn't there a thread by a firaxian "Culture flipping explained"? I guess it contained that information

5. Lt. 'Killer' M.Chieftain

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I remember it, but the above formula came from that thread, so i would be very surprised if that info was in there, but didn't make it into the post I copied into the FAQ.

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I too would be surprised, anyway we are not looking for guesses here. I guess that TheNiceOne (and Arathorn?) has some hard facts to back up their statements I just want to know what they are.

7. satchelChieftain

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That discussion merely identified D as a scale factor, based upon distance, which set the absolute probability of a flip given all the other paramters. The discussion didn't say what the absolute value of D is.

I think the only way gothmog will get an answer to this very good question is if one of the Firaxian programmers happens to chime in with the precise scale factor.

8. ArathornCatan player

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If I said D=2000, I would have been quoting from somewhere. I occasionally do that without internalizing the data, but it's rare. I am aware of the formula, but I do not know the value D. I have not done any research on the matter, so I'm afraid either Gothmog's memory is playing tricks or mine is.

I can *NOT* confirm that D=2000. It seems reasonable. I can easily picture myself writing something like "Imagine D=2000, then the flip chance would be..." or something like that, but I'm pretty sure I've never seen precisely what D is.

Sorry. Hopefully TNO has some more solid data on this.
Arathorn

9. CattChieftain

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The "D=2000 on average and ranges from 500 to 8000" data is straight from Soren. It appeared in a post at Apolyton, in this thread many months ago.

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Woohoo, thanks Catt. I'll have to look over that thread.

And Arathorn I am not sure about your post but it would have been in a SG discussion sometime (not with me).

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12. CattChieftain

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Oops! I kinda neglected to mention the more important point -- "D=2000" is not so much a "base value" as it is a pure variable with a range of between 500 and 8000, the game data applicable to the variable being the distance of the two relevant capitols to the city in question. "2000" is the midpoint of the range (and thus the "average" terminology) but I do not think that implies that such a midpoint implies a "base chance for a flip."

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Edit: Nevermind, I found it. (there are 2 pages to the thread)

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Catt, given the formula:

P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/D

Say F+T=1, Cc=1, H=1, (Cte/Cty)=1, G=0, and the distances to the capital are exactly the same. Then what is the value of P? That is what I mean by the base value. The programers folded the base value (of 0.05%) into the value of D. Otherwise D, like (Cte/Cty), would be a ratio of the distances (capped between 0.25 and 4 for their purposes).

15. CattChieftain

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Yup - sorry. Misunderstood the first time.

16. Cartouche BeeAppropriations Consultant

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Gothmog,

I've had a city flip to a civ that did not have a city (so no Palace), before, believe me I looked up this formula then cause I had a load of culture so I found the situation hard to believe. I think that is why when we look at some of these formula they look kind of strange but they have been modified to account for real game situations, thus some other folding is in there too and may lead to a better understanding of the equation.

Personally I thought the situation that I saw was a little suspect but it teaches you not to sit on your laurels.

CB

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Re Cartouche Bee: You're saying a city flipped to a civ that had been wiped out? That is hard to believe indeed, I am glad it didn't happen to me. I guess it was the foreign nationals, huh? Also local culture, and I guess you are saying that is why they capped D... Ah so.

Finally, this does not clear up weather they changed this value for PTW. As I state above I don't think they did, we just got better at handling flips, but I don't know for sure. I was actually hoping that there was some systematic way this was discovered.

So 'Killer', if you add this to the FAQ, make note of when the info was discovered (what patch), and that no no info is currently available.

18. Cartouche BeeAppropriations Consultant

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No, they lived on a boat. Believe me I was shell shocked and discovered that in reality they had a better chance to flip a city from me from the boat than from a lone city, in my case.

19. YndyChieftain

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CB so your question is what is D in that particular circumstance (which I have also seen). I belive it is the maximum D=8000 based on the number of times I had civs living in boats that re-captured some of their old cities. It would be pretty reasonable as well.

20. CellarDweller22Alive And Kickin'

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Not to sound completely stupid here, but think of these two scenarios (each with a one-tile overlap):

1. You capture a city with 3 foreigners in it (total population).

2. Your city rests on the border of another civ. Total population is 24, with 3 foreigners and 21 of your own civ.

The chances for flipping are the same?!

Why doesn't it take PERCENTAGE of foreigners into account for the flip? In other words, contrary to the "book" (which I've read.... ), it does NOT matter how many of your own citizens are in a city with regard to flipping. So, adding your own workers, etc. to make the population more of your own civ than the foreign civ is a stupid strategy that does not affect the chances of flipping.