Dealing with Mediocrity

[HailoArrows]

I am really enjoying Civ 5, but I'm running into an issue that looks something like this: I decide how I think I'd like to win, and pick a complementary leader. I start into a game, and if it's not going particularly well, say I'm warring with Greece and have no horses, etc... then I end up kind of wandering aimlessly. Maybe I ally with a friendly city-state or two, and maybe I go to war with my nearest neighbor, which is generally successful. I tech up some, and develop my cities, and the next thing I know it's 1100 AD. I've got a decent economy (+40-80 gpt), similarly mediocre science, an army that's sufficient, but underwhelming, 6 or 7 policies... and no clear path to victory.

So, here's what I need to know: What particular traits of your early game help you decide how you're going to play? What signs should I be looking for, and what do they tell me? What are some strategies you found to gain an advantageous start down a particular path to victory?

 

[Thalassicus]

It's too early to say for sure, but right now I'm just making a basic decision: am I surrounded by many other civs, or few? If I'm surrounded by a lot I go for Honor and a military route, conquering civs. If there's no civs within a rather large distance I do Liberty and play defensively while settling the region.