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Decline and fall of the US

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Bast, Jul 29, 2010.

  1. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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  2. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    That overlooks whether the US will overcome its current problems and China doesn't get bogged down with its pending problems. I would bet the US will do it better.
     
  3. Ulyaoth

    Ulyaoth Emperor

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    I'm surprised Japan was that big a share 500 years ago.
     
  4. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    It actually assumes that the US will overcome current crisis and its economy will continue growing. About China agree, let's see what will happen. So far they are developing pretty well.
     
  5. onedreamer

    onedreamer Dragon

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    We are all doomed !! Repent, before it's too late.
     
  6. sonorakitch

    sonorakitch Overseas hunter

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    China faces a more difficult struggle in ensuring economic growth for the future than the US, that's for sure.
     
  7. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    I think it's safe to say it was. There's a chart (I forget the title of it though, cue Integral... :mischief: ) that shows that the long run growth path of the US is pretty much not interrupted by recessions, or even depressions.
     
  8. Mise

    Mise isle of lucy

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    It doesn't show stagnation at all, Cutlass, it shows that the Rest of the World was growing roughly in line with how the main regions on the chart have been growing. If the ROW was stagnating, while the main regions shown were growing very quickly (which we know they were), then the ROW's share of world GDP would be falling, not remaining constant. If it's constant, it means that the ROW is growing about as fast as main regions combined; they were growing more or less at an average pace.
     
  9. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    Yeah, it is blatantly apparent. I guess that's the nature of some contributions: you state something obvious and hope that it creates insight in someone, because they hadn't thought of it that way. The guy who invented sliced bread didn't invent bread or slicing!

    I think that this foreign ownership is what is going to cause America to decline from being where it was, in a relative (not absolute) sense. We can talk about internal economy too, but those will continue to converge between countries at a rate limited by social institutions and population size. It's the ownership of capital that will affect who we call 'dominant.'
     
  10. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    That's relative stagnation. Not absolute stagnation. In many nations there are far more people who have living standards that are not remarkably higher than, say, a century ago.
     
  11. Mise

    Mise isle of lucy

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    That's my point, unless you think the entire world stagnated throughout the entirety of its history, then the graph shows that neither did the ROW stagnate. What you're saying is true: many countries do indeed have living standards no better than a century ago. But the graph doesn't show that; you simply can't draw that conclusion from the graph.
     
  12. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    But the graph is about relative positions over time.
     
  13. Mathalamus

    Mathalamus Emperor of Mathalia

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    if the USA collapses, i doubt it will affect anything. free market would still be here, the EU woudl effectively replace the USA.
     
  14. sonorakitch

    sonorakitch Overseas hunter

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    I don't see it showing stagnation either. It shows that "all other countries" have maintained their share of world GDP, which would indicate anything but stagnation considering the growth of the rest of the world.

    Again though, the stats for...say...Africa and the Middle East are buried behind those of South Korea and Thailand and Poland, etc.
     
  15. Integral

    Integral Can't you hear it?

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    SOMEONE SAY MY NAME?



    ...now to read the thread and see what it's about. :lol:
     
  16. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    :high5: :goodjob:
     
  17. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    The US share has grown slightly in the last 20 years because the two biggest competitors of that period, Europe and Japan, have stagnated for much of it. In the future though the main competotors will be China and India, so I think the US share of global GDP will fall a bit in the coming decades.

    But your point is a good one. Everyone talks about the decadence of the US, but the numbers show that the regions that are in actual (relative) decadence are Western Europe and Japan.
     
  18. ParkCungHee

    ParkCungHee Deity

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    I don't think it's a matter of "Decadence", it's a matter of demographics more then anything else. Japan is burdened with an aging population and is still reeling from the "lost years".
    Demographics are probably the best case for Americas continued growth. Not only is America not faced with the impending aging population like China, America maintains a high rate of population growth, and seems sustainable to support that growth into the future. While China is closing the gap in GDP per capita, the rate at which it does so, and if it can continue to do so is questionable, but it seems unlikely that America will continue to close the gap in population between itself and China.
     
  19. Integral

    Integral Can't you hear it?

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    Re: the thread title.

    Ok, so I read through the thread. It looks like 4.5 pages of awkwardness and 1.5 pages of on-topic discussion. Whatever.

    The standard distinctions have been made and I don't know if I have much to really add to that story.

    1) I doubt we'll be seeing a large absolute decline in US GDP/wealth/'power' unless the ongoing economic malaise somehow festers here and not elsewhere.

    2) Which brings us to the relative question. The US is operating at or near its technically efficient level, recession aside. Europe and Japan are in the same boat, though they have demographic problems as well that are more pressing than those of the United States. The West's main economic challenge going forward into the next few decades remains the finance of their retirement and medical care programs. China and India, on the other hand, still have a long way to go before they're on the technical frontier and they will continue to be able to post breathtaking growth rates for some time; to the extent that their economies grow quickly, they can absorb their own challenges in demography and urbanization.

    3) The decade those India and China grow rich enough to sustain a viable, broad-based internal middle-class market (already nascent to some degree), there will be a sea change in the distribution of (economic) power across the globe.

    4) It's easier to think about things in terms of income per capita, but the emphasis on relative economic shares makes aggregate income an acceptable measure. Just remember that it all comes down to efficiency, capital, human capital, and labor. (Y = AF(uK,hL) and all that, where A is efficiency, u the capacity utilization rate, K capital, h human capital/labor-augmenting technology and L labor.)

    ...and more typical stuff. Asia's quick recovery from the recent recession will hasten their progress but the recession does not, I think, change the overall picture too dramatically. But I think that ex-post real output is essentially trend-stationary, at least in the OECD, so what do I know...
     
  20. Joecoolyo

    Joecoolyo 99% Lightspeed

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    Are you joking? :lol:
     

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