Defeating the Right:Generational Shift?

[Zardnaar]

Basically some of you know my political beliefs. I believe in political gravity (what goes up must come down) and political physics (equal/opposite reaction).

Basically push to hard one way or another you lose the middle. This applies to extreme wokeism and Trumpism. Insert appropriate ism for your country.

Last decade or so I have thought the left just needs to hold the line. Might disappoint people but option B is you lose the election as we saw with Trump.

One positive of Trump he was so volitile, extreme and incompetent he alienated pretty much everyone that wasn't hard right.

Anyway I figured generational change is around a decade away. The boomers don't outnumber everyone else but everyone else isn't monolithic either so their numbers still matter.

Millennials and gen Z have deserted the Coalition – this could be dire for the opposition | Simon Jackman

Labor now has the opportunity to imprint lifelong loyalty on younger people

www.theguardian.com

Anyway this is an Australian article pointing out the colapse of the right wing vote in Australia. USA has experienced something similar while things are looking dire for the Conservatives in the UK. This is all self inflicted.

In NZ it's neck and neck but NZ was somewhat unusual in having a Labour lead government in the anglosphere. We don't really have the hard right in terms of US/UK would understand it. Think if the democrats split into 3 or 4 parties and the GoP equivalent gets 2-4% of the vote with a handful of MPs in parliament with similar views.

Anyway things usually go in cycles but the article seems to indicate the tide going out permanently on the right. In ten years time the oldest zoomers will be 36 years old and the oldest Xers will be starting to retire (varies by country).

Here the younger voters swing heavily left up to 90% with young women voting Greens/Labour.

So CFC are we there yet? Things are changing but it's not a slam dunk yet. Biden outperformed all recent mid term election results.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Not really.

Life converts people into conservatives naturally.
Each generation of conservatives will look different than the previous one.

 

[E.man]

Yes, UK, US, AU were aligned as Right. US, AU recently moved away from the leading 'personalities '. UK Tories in trouble but changed leader (twice), not that it's much help to them.

Still; almost half the US voters still support GOP.

Where does Canada stand in this?

 

[FriendlyFire]

Life converts people into conservatives naturally.
Each generation of conservatives will look different than the previous one.

There was a quote that went something like
Progress is one conservative dying at a time

Though there have been period of rapid and radical change.

 

[João III]

Not really.

Life converts people into conservatives naturally.
Each generation of conservatives will look different than the previous one.

Precisely this. Conservatives can never be "defeated", they'll just evolve in contrast to the next progressive cause du jour. Views considered "progressive" today may very well seem conservative in 10-20 years

 

[Zardnaar]

Precisely this. Conservatives can never be "defeated", they'll just evolve in contrast to the next progressive cause du jour. Views considered "progressive" today may very well seem conservative in 10-20 years

This guy explains it.

A moderate conservative is yesterday's progressive. So as people age and get richer and amass assets they may become fiscally conservative.

BUT as we know the boomers interrupted that the younger ones (younger Gen Xers onwards) haven't gone rightvat least in sufficient numbers (cf Reagan's democrats).

So yeah the Australian liberals and UK conservatives may be the Canary's in the coalmine.

NZ right is more moderate hence they might win the election next year.

 

[Zardnaar]

Yes, UK, US, AU were aligned as Right. US, AU recently moved away from the leading 'personalities '. UK Tories in trouble but changed leader (twice), not that it's much help to them.

Still; almost half the US voters still support GOP.

Where does Canada stand in this?

Tbh we don't get much Canadian political coverage here relative to Aussie/USA/UK and the political stuff I monitor doesn't mention it much either.

Apologies Valka o7 pat Maddy for me.

 

[Arwon]

Not really.

Life converts people into conservatives naturally.
Each generation of conservatives will look different than the previous one.

The evidence for this in Australia, the subject of the article in the OP, is pretty limited. Per the same survey, there's a substantial cohort effect in Australian party vote, and a stronger generational imprinting effect that just tends to move around a bit with specific leaders and election issues. The generations voting for the right have done so for decades, since they were a fair bit younger, in roughly the same proportions as currently.:

Only about one in four voters under the age of forty voted for the major conservative parties, the Liberals and the Nationals. That's never been observed previously, and by the time you're talking about 30 and 40 year olds you're not really talking about "naive kids" or whatever the hell any more. Further, under about the age of 30 the Greens are polling as much as the Liberals, that's also pretty unprecedented.

It all has massive implications for the future of the party system if there's any sort of continued generational imprinting effect like there was with the older generations.

 

[Zardnaar]

The evidence for this in Australia, the subject of the article in the OP, is pretty limited. Per the same survey, there's a substantial cohort effect in Australian party vote, and a stronger generational imprinting effect that just tends to move around a bit with specific leaders and election issues. The generations voting for the right have done so for decades, since they were a fair bit younger, in roughly the same proportions as currently.:

View attachment 646831

View attachment 646830

Only about one in four voters under the age of forty voted for the major conservative parties, the Liberals and the Nationals. That's never been observed previously, and by the time you're talking about 30 and 40 year olds you're not really talking about "naive kids" or whatever the hell any more. Further, under about the age of 30 the Greens are polling as much as the Liberals, that's also pretty unprecedented.

It all has massive implications for the future of the party system if there's any sort of continued generational imprinting effect like there was with the older generations.

Can Liberals bounce back in the shirt term?

I'm guessing Labour probably wins two terms at least unless they're utterly incompetent and the Conservatives in IK have poed the bed.

Think we're seeing very similar age related trends in Aussie, NZ, UK, USA.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Not really.

Life converts people into conservatives naturally.
Each generation of conservatives will look different than the previous one.

It is life experience that changes people's political views.

So as people age and get richer and amass assets they may become fiscally conservative.

But what happens if they merely age and accumulate debts ?

Suddenly nationally or socially owned assets such as community housing begins to look very
attractive, particularly to the generation rent who never even got on the house purchase ladder.

And the "I am mortgaged to the hilt, but hit by energy and service charges, but I cannot sell
my unimprovable unsaleable leasehold flat" can start to look like disguised renting with handcuffs.

I cannot speak for New Zealand, but there are signs of a quantum state change coming in the UK.

The problem is that Keir Starmer lacks the will to defy the financial capitalists and go for radical change.
In his own way, he lives in the past; seeing himself as a replacement Tony Blair and pining for the EU.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

This guy explains it.

A moderate conservative is yesterday's progressive. So as people age and get richer and amass assets they may become fiscally conservative.

BUT as we know the boomers interrupted that the younger ones (younger Gen Xers onwards) haven't gone rightvat least in sufficient numbers (cf Reagan's democrats).

So yeah the Australian liberals and UK conservatives may be the Canary's in the coalmine.

NZ right is more moderate hence they might win the election next year.

There is no need to make a video of it, it is indeed pretty simple. At the end of the day we all are nothing but selfish apes, not very different of a bunch of monkeys fighting for a walnut at the zoo. When we are young and/or have nothing we want others to share with us, and when we are older and have something we don't want to share it with anyone. Both points are equally valid or invalid depending on the observer. We have however bigger brains and have behind us thousands years of accumulated knowledge on philosophy, laws, psychology, sociology, etc, so we should theoretically do a bit better than the monkeys at the zoo, theoretically...

 

[Zardnaar]

It is life experience that changes people's political views.



But what happens if they merely age and accumulate debts ?

Suddenly nationally or socially owned assets such as community housing begins to look very
attractive, particularly to the generation rent who never even got on the house purchase ladder.

And the "I am mortgaged to the hilt, but hit by energy and service charges, but I cannot sell
my unimprovable unsaleable leasehold flat" can start to look like disguised renting with handcuffs.

I cannot speak for New Zealand, but there are signs of a quantum state change coming in the UK.

The problem is that Keir Starmer lacks the will to defy the financial capitalists and go for radical change.
In his own way, he lives in the past; seeing himself as a replacement Tony Blair and pining for the EU.

NZ already ahead of rest of anglosphere in social policy by 20-30 years. Not in every issue but proportional voting 96, socially liberal etc.

Our right wing parties are still comparatively moderate relative to recent Trump/BoJo/Scomo.

Unfortunately that means they can win elections here still but it's looking bad a few years down the track. Something like 70%bof young males and 90% of females don't support them. Those numbers trend down older the population gets though.

Latest polling puts National+ACT ahead of Labour+Greens by enough it's harder to spin. 64-53 seats magic number is 61.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

school indoctrination has largely done its job/won for the left already. right was too busy hating on dungeons and dragons and being the 90's version of today's woke censorship clowns back in the day to do anything about it.

at college level the % of liberal faculty is comical. unsurprisingly, having people spending more time with liberal faculty from elementary school - college than they do with parents slants more of them liberal, on average. i don't see conservatives making any legit effort to copy the tactic, and even basic legislation gets branded "don't say gay" lol.

to some degree, church of woke beat the right at its own censorship/cancel culture game, buoyed by government having a direct interest in it getting more of a say in what people are taught/believe than church/families. unfortunately, that game is cancer no matter who's winning.

i would be happy to see the 2 party system destroyed, though i'm not excited by what it would unfortunately take to accomplish that. we probably just get more decay until the thing doesn't run any longer, like every other nation in history.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

The entire last 160 years of American history has (and this is a simplification) been a continuous right wing backlash to the pursuit of multiracial democracy, and it isn’t ending any time soon.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

The entire last 160 years of American history has (and this is a simplification) been a continuous right wing backlash to the pursuit of multiracial democracy, and it isn’t ending any time soon.

that isn't a simplification, it's an inaccuracy

both actual oppression and race grifting have not been a steady/continuous line from mid 1800s to now. us policy after civil rights movement has been so damaging that it has overcome many of the benefits. us officials don't want to admit that, so they want to blame "legacy of slavery" for trends that switched negative and worsened as a trend after the civil rights movement, not before.

similarly, present us officials talk about "multiracial", but they don't actually mean it. colleges have been allowed to openly discriminate in favor of some minority groups and against others for years, and "multiracial" data is used selectively. consider the maternal deaths statistic that came up during abortion discussion - people actually made claims that the pattern showed "discrimination" against minorities generally, despite that per the evidence that assertion is blatantly false, and it is black americans in particular that suffer in that metric. that's a non-trivial error which points to different potential sources of the problem...either racists are only selectively so, at massive scale, or something else needs to explain the observed data. or not, lets just only count that data when convenient apparently. similarly, discrimination based on race counts differently depending on who is doing it...so much for leftwing "multiracial democracy" then.

 

[PPQ_Purple]

It is life experience that changes people's political views.

It's even simpler than that.

Put very simply, when you reach a certain age in your life (about late teens or so) you look at the world and see it is bad. And it indeed is. After all, how else would you call a place that gives you nothing for free and forces you to constantly struggle just to maintain a reasonable standard of living. And that's if you are lucky. If not you might just have to struggle to survive. Clearly that is wrong. Why should all the old people have all the wealth and power and everything while you have to start from scratch? That's unfair.

And so the struggle begins. Struggle not just to survive and have a standard of living but to change the world in the stupid idealistic belief that if only they can dethrone enough of their parents, kill enough jews or rich people or who ever is the enemy this generation and generally make enough of a mess they can change the world so that they don't ever have to work and struggle any more. Instead they shall create a perfect utopia where money grows on trees and it's paradise all around. Well, for the chosen ones at least.

Thing is, as time passes those same people now in their 30's and 40's come to a point in their life when the tables have turned. All their struggles have in fact NOT changed the world. It has not become a glorious utopia. But they have resulted in them getting to a point in their life where they are well established. Sure, things aren't perfect but they have a decent home, a family, a carrier with good income etc. Life ain't so bad any more. Sure they still have to go to work and stuff. But overall not bad at all.

So now the impetus is no longer on changing the world. Indeed, changing the world would be terrible as it undoes everything they have achieved. So they want to keep the world just the way it is to make sure the things they now have don't get torn away. And a new generation looks at them and says "why should they have all the good stuff while we have to struggle." And so the cycle continues.


Or, as an ancient proverb put it. If you aren't a communist as a teenager you have no heart. If you are still one after 30 you have no brain.


PS. Just to be clear. The above post contains somewhat flowery language. But it's the point that matters. It does not matter if you are a software engineer in California or a poor dirt farmer in Ultrapoorcountrystan. If you have spent years and decades of your life making sure your dirt is the brownest most dirtiest dirt it can be you sure as hell aren't going to let some young fool with his delusions of grandiour redistribute it.

 

[Gorbles]

Or, as an ancient proverb put it. If you aren't a communist as a teenager you have no heart. If you are still one after 30 you have no brain.

This ain't a proverb. It's just something people say to themselves to rationalise what they're saying or doing

 

[Valka D'Ur]

Yes, UK, US, AU were aligned as Right. US, AU recently moved away from the leading 'personalities '. UK Tories in trouble but changed leader (twice), not that it's much help to them.

Still; almost half the US voters still support GOP.

Where does Canada stand in this?

Contaminated by what happens in the U.S., since we're constantly flooded by every sort of media they have, and ideas stopped trickling over the border decades ago. It's a tsunami now. When you see right-wing ex-cabinet ministers from Harper's time (still known as the Dark Decade) wearing a MAGA hat at a party event, it's not hard to figure out that she belongs to a subgroup of the CPC that loves Trump. The "Freedumb Convoy" is planning another go at what happened last year, as the federal enquiry chugs on as to whether or not the feds should have used the Emergency Act to deal with them earlier this year.

Here in Alberta our premier is certifiably BS!C (can't write that out in full due to inappropriate language rules, but she's absolutely stark-raving NUTS). She's trying to table legislation that gives her the power to refuse to enforce any federal law that she thinks "is bad for Alberta." And she gets to decide if they're "bad." We don't get a say. That's a recipe for having our Charter rights stripped away, since some of them are really inconvenient for a government annoyed at having to treat certain demographics like we're actual people.

Some people are counting the days until the next election (May 2023), but then another person pointed out that even though we have provincial elections scheduled every 4 years, they can legally be called sooner, or as long as 5 years from the previous one. This premier only got in a few weeks ago. She can do a lot of damage by May 2023, never mind putting it off until 2024. I think the streets would be full of protesters if she tried that, though.

Tbh we don't get much Canadian political coverage here relative to Aussie/USA/UK and the political stuff I monitor doesn't mention it much either.

Apologies Valka o7 pat Maddy for me.

Maddy has been duly patted and I told her it came all the way from New Zealand.

 

[Zardnaar]

Contaminated by what happens in the U.S., since we're constantly flooded by every sort of media they have, and ideas stopped trickling over the border decades ago. It's a tsunami now. When you see right-wing ex-cabinet ministers from Harper's time (still known as the Dark Decade) wearing a MAGA hat at a party event, it's not hard to figure out that she belongs to a subgroup of the CPC that loves Trump. The "Freedumb Convoy" is planning another go at what happened last year, as the federal enquiry chugs on as to whether or not the feds should have used the Emergency Act to deal with them earlier this year.

Here in Alberta our premier is certifiably BS!C (can't write that out in full due to inappropriate language rules, but she's absolutely stark-raving NUTS). She's trying to table legislation that gives her the power to refuse to enforce any federal law that she thinks "is bad for Alberta." And she gets to decide if they're "bad." We don't get a say. That's a recipe for having our Charter rights stripped away, since some of them are really inconvenient for a government annoyed at having to treat certain demographics like we're actual people.

Some people are counting the days until the next election (May 2023), but then another person pointed out that even though we have provincial elections scheduled every 4 years, they can legally be called sooner, or as long as 5 years from the previous one. This premier only got in a few weeks ago. She can do a lot of damage by May 2023, never mind putting it off until 2024. I think the streets would be full of protesters if she tried that, though.


Maddy has been duly patted and I told her it came all the way from New Zealand.

Wife bought Dexter a heat pad. He's discovered it's appeal.

 

[E.man]

This guy explains it.

A moderate conservative is yesterday's progressive. So as people age and get richer and amass assets they may become fiscally conservative.

BUT as we know the boomers interrupted that the younger ones (younger Gen Xers onwards) haven't gone rightvat least in sufficient numbers (cf Reagan's democrats).

So yeah the Australian liberals and UK conservatives may be the Canary's in the coalmine.

NZ right is more moderate hence they might win the election next year.

Be careful writing Australian Liberal Party. Make sure to give it the capital L.

As you would know, but others not know, they are conservative not (small l) liberal.

A confusing thing coming from their historical roots.