Deliberately buying last luxury to push out market competition

[Izmir Stinger]

If an AI has sold every copy of a luxury resource but one, they will charge triple for access to it.

This seems like a bad deal, but if you have severe happiness problems (say, an old trading partner backstabed you right after flipping a Mercantile CS ally off of you) it can seem worth it in the sort term, assuming you can afford it at all.

I suspect that, with careful scouting, this 3:1 deal only ever needs be sort term, if the AI handles it the way I think they do:

If the overcharging AI has at least 2 improved copies of the resource, that means they must be trading it to another AI. Once you take the deal at three to one, they have no copies. When their deal comes up for renewal with their other trading partner they won't renew with that AI for the same terms because now they don't have a copy of the resource themselves, and they should charge triple for it. Their other trading partner should refuse to trade on those terms (they AI doesn't pay triple, do they?) and the deal ends. Now when your deal comes up for renewal the AI should say "this deal has strengthened the bonds between our nations" and offer to renew it at 3:1. If you decline, the AI will now have a spare copy of the resource because 2 renewals have been declined, and since it is your turn, you can snatch it up at a fair price.

So if I am right about their behavior, the price for the "last" lux is triple for 30 turns, and then normal from there on out. This seems reasonably attractive, and potentially worth the cost if happiness problems are severe and there are no other trade opportunities, affordable city states, etc. The only thing that can screw this up is if the AI picks up an additional copy of the resource between failing to renew the deal with the third party, and renewing it with you. There is a good chance that other AI is still in the market for this particular lux and has something to trade that this AI wants, since they had just such a deal recently, and now that the AI that is overcharging you has a spare, she can trade it to the third party for a fair price. Then when your deal comes up for renewal it is still her last copy :/ Also, obviously, this won't work if the lux in question is their ONLY copy so you need to scout their lands thoroughly to make deals like this work.

 

[Stone_Age]

I believe that I have changed the terms of a deal in the renewal screen. I used to give hostile nations a free luxury for 30 turns. Then, when they would ask for renewal of the deal, I would charge them for it and they always accepted. This was how I would try to keep peace. So, I think you can cut out a step in your process. Also, I have seen the AI have a spare luxury to trade in the renewal screen, but they would trade it away before my turn came.

 

[Ribannah]

And sometimes they simply have only one of the resource.

 

[BlackWizard]

Bribing AI's to go war with each other is also way to free luxury resourseces. Sometimes they accept ridiculously cheap prices from DOW(2 gold per turn or such). After they DOW you have to exit trade screen before luxuries appear to trade screen.

 

[Izmir Stinger]

Bribing AI's to go war with each other is also way to free luxury resourseces. Sometimes they accept ridiculously cheap prices from DOW(2 gold per turn or such). After they DOW you have to exit trade screen before luxuries appear to trade screen.

This is less precise, though, because you can't know which resources are being traded with whom, just that they are being traded and not with you, so you can't be sure a war will free up a particular resource.

I suppose you can do elaborate deductive reasoning to figure out who is trading what with whom by exploring the whole map and drawing conclusions like "Elizabeth must be trading away 3 sources of sugar because she has 4 in her lands, and the diplo screen says she only has 1 copy available, but she can't be trading with Bismark or Napoleon b/c they both have copies of their own, and Alexander is allied to Sofia who is giving him sugar so that means that she is either trading it with Ramses, Gandhi, Wu Zetian or Catherine, but Catherine doesn't have any luxuries Elizabeth lacks, so unless she is buying it for gold, that means it must be the other three..." and so on and so forth for every lux and civ and although it can be done, I can't be arsed.

 

[Qoma]

What I like to try to do is, when I'm in a pinch for happiness and the numbers work, time my trades - just before one of my luxury trades that I have 2 copies of comes up, I trade the remaining (1) luxury I have with another civ that also has only (1) copy of a lux I don't have. (if we're in good standing, they'll take the trade because it's a (1) for (1).) Then when my old lux trade expires, I have two luxuries.

It's not what the OP is talking about, but his thread title made me think of it.

 

[Izmir Stinger]

What I like to try to do is, when I'm in a pinch for happiness and the numbers work, time my trades - just before one of my luxury trades that I have 2 copies of comes up, I trade the remaining (1) luxury I have with another civ that also has only (1) copy of a lux I don't have. (if we're in good standing, they'll take the trade because it's a (1) for (1).) Then when my old lux trade expires, I have two luxuries.

It's not what the OP is talking about, but his thread title made me think of it.

They go for that? I thought the AI never traded thier last lux except for at 3:1, regardless of diplomatic relations! I'm going to have to try that.

If it works, you don't even have to be desperate for happiness for this to be worth it if it triggers a few "we love the king" celebrations.