Demographic Analysis & Intelligence

How is that possible in C3C? I heard such things for Civ4, but here? The end of their turn is relevant, isn't it?
 
:dunno: I was reading Microsoft translated German, tons of it. It's possible that the conversation drifted to Civ4 briefly. Of course the end of turn is relevant. But, I suppose if a team had two tiles that were only slightly different, a change could cause slight confusion.

Remember this game has been in the planning stage for how long? 3 1/2 months. I was just relating something I recalled reading quite a while ago, as there was a discussion about this.
 
From Turn 11:

Commerce (we have 6 cpt):

1 rival has 7
2 rivals have 6

Shields (we have 3 spt):

1 rival has 4 spt
2 rivals have 3 spt

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have 4 excess fpt.

Productivity (we have 13 = 4 food + 3 shields + 6 commerce):

1 rival has more than 13.
2 rivals have 13.

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Capital is Camelot, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/2 tile and a 2/2/1 tile. They finished mining a BG on the river and are working that instead of the sugar hill. They could have worked it last turn and picked up an extra shield.
16 food in bin.
Produced 26 shields so far (either they or Team #2 completed a warrior).
Earned 66 commerce so far minus 4 for luxuries equals 62 potential beakers.

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Capital is Essen, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile (or a 4/1/0 tile if seafaring) and a 2/1/1 tile?
16 food in bin.
Produced 26 shields so far (either they or Team #1 completed a warrior).
Earned 49-50 commerce so far (49 if river wheat, 50 if seafaring) minus 4 for luxuries.

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Capital is Aerie, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile and a 2/1/1 tile.
12 food in bin.
Produced 23 shields so far. Built 1 warrior, 13 shields in bin.
Earned 45 commerce so far minus 3 for luxuries equals 42 beakers.

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Capital is Christiana, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile and a 2/1/2 tile.
12 food in bin.
Produced 23 shields so far.
Earned 38 commerce so far minus 3 for luxuries equals 35 potential beakers.
 
Repost in what I hope is a slightly better format:

From Turn 11:

Commerce (we have 6 cpt):

1 rival has 7 (Knights)
2 rivals have 6 (Kuche and Anarchie)

Shields (we have 3 spt):

1 rival has 4 spt (Knights)
2 rivals have 3 spt (Kuche and Anarchie)

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have 4 excess fpt.

Productivity (we have 13 = 4 food + 3 shields + 6 commerce):

1 rival has more than 13 (Knights - 15)
2 rivals have 13 (Kuche and Anarchie)

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Camelot - size 2, 16 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +4 shields (plus an additional 2 on growth), and +7 commerce (-1 for luxuries)
Production so far: 26 shields (either they or Team #2 completed a warrior).
Commerce so far: approximately 66 commerce minus 4 for luxuries equals 62 potential beakers.

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Essen - size 2, 16 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +3 shields (plus an additional 2 on growth), and +6 commerce (-1 for luxuries)
Production so far: 26 shields (either they or Team #1 completed a warrior).
Commerce so far: approximately 50 commerce minus 4 for luxuries equals 46 potential beakers.

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Aerie - size 2, 12 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +3 shields, and +6 commerce (-1 for luxuries)
Production so far: 23 shields; built 1 warrior, 13 shields in bin.
Commerce so far: 45 commerce minus 3 for luxuries equals 42 beakers.

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Christiana - size 2, 12 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +3 shields, and +6 commerce (-1 for luxuries)
12 food in bin.
Production so far: 23 shields.
Commerce so far: approximately 38 commerce minus 3 for luxuries equals 35 potential beakers.
 
Who the Civs could be:
Kuche-
Babylonians
English
Germans
Greeks
Indians
Japanese
Romans
Russians
Zulu
Arabs
Koreans
Mongols
Spanish
Vikings
Portugal
Hittites

Anarchie-
Babylonians
Germans
Greeks
Indians
Japanese
Romans
Russians
Zulu
Arabs
Koreans
Mongols
Hittites
 
From Turn 12:

Commerce (we have 6 cpt):

1 rival has more than 8 (Knights with 9)
1 rival has 8 (Kuche)
1 rival has 6 (Anarchie)

Shields (we have 3 spt):

1 rival has 5 spt (Knights)
1 rival has 4 spt (Kuche)
1 rival has 3 spt (Anarchie)

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have 4 excess fpt.

Productivity (we have 13 = 4 food + 3 shields + 6 commerce):

2 rivals have more than 14 (Knights – 18; Kuche – 16k)
1 rival has 13 (Anarchie)

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Camelot - size 3, 0 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +5 shields, and +9 commerce (-2 for luxuries)
Production so far: 32 shields (either they or Team #2 completed a warrior).
Commerce so far: approximately 73 commerce minus 5 for luxuries equals 67 potential beakers.

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Essen - size 3, 0 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +4 shields, and +8 commerce (-2 for luxuries)
Production so far: 31 shields (either they or Team #1 completed a warrior).
Commerce so far: approximately 56 commerce minus 5 for luxuries equals 51 potential beakers.

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Aerie - size 2, 16 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +3 shields (+2 shields on growth), and +6 commerce (-1 for luxuries)
Production so far: 26 shields; built 1 warrior, 16 shields in bin.
Commerce so far: 51 commerce minus 4 for luxuries equals 47 beakers.

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Christiana - size 2, 16 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +3 shields (+2 shields on growth), and +6 commerce (-1 for luxuries)
Production so far: 26 shields.
Commerce so far: approximately 44 commerce minus 4 for luxuries equals 40 potential beakers.

We are the only ones with flood plains in our fat cross :).
 
In terms of counter-intelligence, would the other teams already be able to determine that we're not really Persia since we're not industrious?
 
From Turn 13:

Commerce (we have 8 cpt):

1 rival has 10
1 rival has 8
1 rival has 7

Shields (we have 4 spt):

2 rivals have 5 spt
1 rival has 4 spt

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

2 rivals have 4 excess fpt
1 rival has 3 excess fpt

Productivity (we have 16 = 4 food + 4 shields + 8 commerce):

1 rival has more than 16
1 rival has 16
1 rival has 15

1 rival has 2 military units.

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Camelot - size 3, 4 food in bin
Current turn – will get + food, + shields, and + commerce (-2 for luxuries)
Production so far: 37 shields (either they or Team #2 completed a warrior).
Commerce so far: approximately 82 commerce minus 7 for luxuries equals 75 potential beakers.

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Essen - size 3, 4 food in bin
Current turn – will get + food, + shields, and + commerce (-2 for luxuries)
Production so far: 35 shields (either they or Team #1 completed a warrior).
Commerce so far: approximately 64 commerce minus 7 for luxuries equals 57 potential beakers.

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Aerie - size 3, 0 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +3 shields (+2 shields on growth), and +6 commerce (-1 for luxuries)
Production so far: 31 shields; built 1 warrior, 21 shields in bin.
Commerce so far: 57 commerce minus 5 for luxuries equals 52 beakers.

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Christiana - size 3, 0 food in bin
Current turn – will get + food, + shields, and + commerce (-1 for luxuries)
Production so far: 31 shields.
Commerce so far: approximately 50 commerce minus 5 for luxuries equals 45 potential beakers.

We are the only ones with flood plains in our fat cross :).

I need a little more time to analyze who is doing what. The shields don't really make sense for someone to have produced a second unit. Anarchie produced a warrior and a (regular) spear/archer?? Maybe somebody popped a conscript from a hut :dunno:. Interesting that someone opted to work only +3 fpt this turn :hmm:.
 
From Turn 14:

Commerce (we have 8 cpt):

1 rival has 10
1 rival has 8
1 rival has 6

Shields (we have 4 spt):

2 rivals have 5 spt
1 rival has 4 spt

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

2 rivals have 4 excess fpt
1 rival has 3 excess fpt

Productivity (we have 16 = 4 food + 4 shields + 8 commerce):

1 rival has more than 16
1 rival has 16
1 rival has 14

1 rival has 2 or more military units.
 
I can't download the save yet, but from the screenie in the SotE thread, Essen obviously built a worker. That has to make them the favorites for having completed a second military unit on turn 13 since everyone else should have far more than 10 shields accumulated. Essen built a warrior then a 25 shield regular archer/spearman?

Hypothesis: they popped barbarians from a hut with their warrior. They were building a granary or a settler, but a barbarian wandered too close to their city and they had to change to a unit to defend even though it wasted shields. They then opted to build a worker next for no particular reason.

Alternative explanations?

Does anyone know anyone on that team? Are they very good players, or could they just be playing poorly?
 
I don't know any of their players personally, but they have pretty good line up, from what I can tell. There is justanick, Hawkeye, Gabelbart, and possibly klienerHeldt. These guys seem knowledgeable and have high post counts. Not sure what's going on. Or if they are having problems. Going to go look at the save now.
 
I think that is a reasonable explanation, I've been in that situation before. On emperor huts usually give you barbarians, but still give out techs often enough to make popping them worthwhile. What do you make of us having built a settler faster than everyone else? (Anarchie may have finished one, but we're one turn behind them having moved our capital.) I guess the other two teams (not Essen) have opted for granary first, any other thoughts?
 
I'm not seeing a problem yet with Kuche. I am missing the team analysis in turn 14. :(

You're saying we used 10 shields to build our Warrior, but you're assuming that Kuche only used 5? :confused: Not following well here. Could Kuche have built 2, maybe three Warriors and then a Worker? Their growth kept up with ours and the Hood, so maybe 2 Warriors and a Worker?
 
I omitted the team analysis in turn 14 because I really don't know who is doing what right now. We'll know more when we see who doesn't grow - one team is only getting 3 excess fpt instead of 4, and that team has likely produced more shields the last 2 turns. I will go back and edit in anything we can figure out.

Kuche produced around 35 shields by turn 13 = 10-shield warrior + 20-shield unit apparently.

Based on the Military Service figure in F11, we know that one team (and only one team) completed a military unit prior to our turn 6. Essen and Camelot should have each had 10 shields at that point, and Anarchie should have had 8, so we know that it was a warrior from either Essen or Camelot. No one had a second military unit until our turn 13. No one completed a worker or settler until our turn 15. Whatever was completed on turn 13, it took 7 turns, during most of which the city was at size 2.
 
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