Demographic Analysis & Intelligence

[Chamnix]

From Turn 5:

Commerce (we have 4 cpt):

1 rival has 5 (Knights + 1 from road completing)
2 rivals have 4 or less (??)

Shields (we have 2 spt):

All rivals also have 2 spt.

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have at least 3 excess fpt.

Productivity (we have 10 = 4 food + 2 shields + 4 commerce):

1 rival has more than 10 (Knights: 11 = 4 food + 2 shields + 5 commerce (+1 from road completing)
2 rivals have 9 (4 food + 2 shields + 3 commerce??)

We have 8 food in bin and 6 shields accumulated.

Christiana city of Anarchie has 8 food in the bin and probably 6 shields accumulated.

Of Camelot of Knights and Essen of Kuche:

Both probably have 8 shields accumulated.
One is industrious.

I don't know who has the commerce advantage, but one of our rivals seems likely to be seafaring.

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Camelot - size 1, 12 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +2 shields, and +5 commerce (+1 from road completing)
Production so far: 8 shields
Commerce so far: approximately 22 commerce

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Essen - size 1, 12 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +2 shields, and +3 commerce?
Production so far: 8 shields
Commerce so far: approximately 18 commerce

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Aerie - size 1, 8 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +2 shields, and +4 commerce
Production so far: 6 shields
Commerce so far: 14 commerce

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Christiana - size 1, 8 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +2 shields, and +3 commerce?
Production so far: 6 shields.
Commerce so far: 10 commerce

 

[Calis]

Here is turn 6...

 

[AutomatedTeller]

Interesting that there may be 2 seafaring civs (or the mapmakers gave someone a wheat/cow on a river, but I'm betting another seafaring.

Let's see - Portugal, England, Scandinavia, Carthage, Spain. Scandinavia could be a serious problem in the mid-game. Carthage would probably be able to beat us to mapmaking. Portugal and England certainly would be able to beat us to mapmaking (neither of them have to go pottery first) Assuming, of course, they want to go to mapmaking.

 

[EvilConqueror]

England and Portugal could easily beeline to philosophy and take map making as their free tech. Hittites as well. Though I think it's unlikely that any team chose Portugal or the Hittites.

 

[Chamnix]

From Turn 6:

Commerce (we have 4 cpt):

1 rival has 6 (Knights)
2 rivals have 4 or less (Kuche - 4; Anarchie - 3)

Shields (we have 2 spt):

All rivals also have 2 spt (Knights and Kuche will get +2 shields on growth).

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have at least 3 excess fpt.

Productivity (we have 10 = 4 food + 2 shields + 4 commerce):

1 rival has more than 10 (Knights: 12 = 4 food + 2 shields (+2 on growth) + 6 commerce)
1 rival has 10 (Kuche: 4 food + 2 shields (+2 on growth) + 4 commerce)
1 rival has 9 (Anarchie: 9 = 4 food + 2 shields + 3 commerce)

At least one rival is likely to be seafaring.

We have 12 food in bin and 8 shields accumulated.

Christiana city of Anarchie probably has 12 food in the bin and probably 8 shields accumulated.

Of Camelot of Knights and Essen of Kuche:

One probably has 10 shields accumulated - they did not complete a warrior.
One has just completed a warrior and has 0 shields accumulated.
Both likely have 16 food in the bin and will be size 2 next turn.

One is probably industrious.

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Camelot - size 1, 16 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +2 shields +2 on growth, and +6 commerce
Production so far: 10 shields (either they or Team #2 completed a warrior).
Commerce so far: approximately 28 commerce

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Essen - size 1, 16 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +2 shields + 2 on growth, and +4 commerce
Production so far: 10 shields (either they or Team #1 completed a warrior).
Commerce so far: approximately 22 commerce

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Aerie - size 1, 12 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +2 shields, and +4 commerce
Production so far: 8 shields
Commerce so far: 18 commerce

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Christiana - size 1, 12 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +2 shields, and +3 commerce
Production so far: 8 shields.
Commerce so far: 13 commerce

 

[Chamnix]

Interesting that there may be 2 seafaring civs (or the mapmakers gave someone a wheat/cow on a river, but I'm betting another seafaring.

I don't think even a cow/wheat on a river could explain the commerce - one rival had 6 GNP on turn 2. I think they had to have 4 from their city center and work the sugar hill for a turn.

 

[Chamnix]

I have crunched numbers like a madman, and assuming that everyone has tiles similar to ours (but not exactly the same as ours - some teams apparently got their food bonus on the river), and assuming that everyone is optimizing growth to size 2 as quickly as possible, here is what I believe to be the story:

Team A (one of the first 2 teams in the turn order) is seafaring, industrious, and has their bonus wheat on a river. Their first 2 turns, they worked the sugar hill, then switched to the wheat. Their worker moved to the wheat and irrigated and roaded.

Team B (the other of the first 2 teams) is not seafaring or industrious, but does have their bonus wheat on a river (or is seafaring and their bonus wheat is not on the river). They worked the sugar hill for 1 turn, then switched to the wheat. Their worker moved to the wheat and irrigated.

Team D (the 4th team in the turn order) is not seafaring or industrious and does not have their bonus wheat on the river. They worked the sugar hill for 1 turn, then switched to the wheat. Their worker moved to the wheat and irrigated.

I believe this is consistent with everything we have seen on F11, and I don't think there is any other plausible explanation that would be consistent with the information.

 

[Sparthage]

Judging from my knowledge, this means that Team A is probably Carthage (There are no other Civs with both Seafaring and Industrious traits).

 

[Chamnix]

Predictions for turn 7 :

Essen and Camelot will both be size 2.

We will be #1 in approval rating with 50%.
We will be #3 in population.
We will be #3 in GNP with 4. Our rivals will have 8, 6, and 3.
We will be #3 in manufactured goods with 2. Our rivals will have 3, 3, and 2.
We will be #1 in family size, but our rivals will also have +4 fpt.
We will be #1 in military service.
We will be #3 in productivity with 10. Our rivals will have 15, 13, and 9.

 

[Bowsling]

Judging from my knowledge, this means that Team A is probably Carthage (There are no other Civs with both Seafaring and Industrious traits).

That would be the Brotherhood. They apparently didn't bother hiding their civ.

Kuche, I would imagine, is Germany, especially the Brotherhood, judging by their turn two productivity, is the only team who has two traits that improve the city square.

As for Anarchie, they also concealed their civ, but not by disguising as another one. If Kuche is indeed Germany, Anarchie probably has one of the four traits that improves the city square (Seafaring, Industrious, Agricultural, and Commercial)

 

[Calis]

turn 7...

 

[Chamnix]

From Turn 7:

Commerce (we have 4 cpt plus we will get 1 extra from the road being completed):

1 rival has more than 6 (Knights - 8)
1 rival has 6 (Kuche)
1 rival has 4 or less (Anarchie - 3 + 1 from road being completed)

Shields (we have 2 spt + 2 on growth):

2 rivals have 3 spt (Knights, Kuche)
1 rival has 2 spt (Anarchie +2 on growth)

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have at least 3 excess fpt.

Productivity (we have 10 = 4 food + 2 shields +2 on growth + 4 commerce + will get 1 extra commerce from road):

2 rivals have more than 10 (Knights: 15 = 4 food + 3 shields + 8 commerce; Kuche: 11 = 4 food + 3 shields + 6 commerce)
1 rival has 9 (Anarchie: 4 food + 2 shields +2 on growth + 3 commerce +1 from road completing)

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Capital is Camelot, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/2 tile and a 2/1/2 tile.
No food in bin.
Produced 14 shields so far (either they or Team #2 completed a warrior).
Earned 34 commerce so far.

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Capital is Essen, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile (or a 4/1/0 tile if seafaring) which is likely to be roaded on this IBT and a 2/1/2 tile.
No food in bin.
Produced 14 shields so far (either they or Team #1 completed a warrior).
Earned 25-26 commerce so far (25 if river wheat, 26 if seafaring).

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Capital is Aerie, size 1.
Currently working a 4/1/0 tile which will be roaded this IBT.
16 food in bin (will grow this turn).
Produced 10 shields so far. Built 1 warrior, no shields in bin.
Earned 22 commerce so far.

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Capital is Christiana, size 1.
Currently working a 4/1/0 tile which is likely to be roaded this IBT.
16 food in bin (will grow this turn).
Produced 10 shields so far.
Earned 17 commerce so far.

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Camelot - size 2, 0 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +3 shields, and +8 commerce (minus 1 for luxuries)
Production so far: 14 shields (either they or Team #2 completed a warrior).
Commerce so far: approximately 34 commerce

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Essen - size 2, 0 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +3 shields, and +6 commerce (minus 1 for luxuries)
Production so far: 14 shields (either they or Team #1 completed a warrior).
Commerce so far: approximately 26 commerce

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Aerie - size 1, 16 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +2 shields + 2 on growth, and +4 commerce + 1 from road completing
Production so far: 10 shields; produced warrior, 0 shields in bin
Commerce so far: 22 commerce

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Christiana - size 1, 16 food in bin
Current turn – will get +4 food, +2 shields + 2 on growth, and +3 commerce + 1 for road completing
Production so far: 10 shields.
Commerce so far: 16 commerce

 

[Calis]

And turn 8...

 

[Chamnix]

From Turn 8:

Commerce (we have 6 cpt):

1 rival has more than 7
2 rivals have 6

Shields (we have 3 spt):

All rivals have 3 spt

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have 4 excess fpt.

Productivity (we have 13 = 4 food + 3 shields + 6 commerce):

1 rival has more than 13.
2 rivals have 13.

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Capital is Camelot, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/2 tile and a 2/1/2 tile.
4 food in bin.
Produced 17 shields so far (either they or Team #2 completed a warrior).
Earned 42 commerce so far minus 1 for luxuries equal 41 potential beakers.

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Capital is Essen, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile (or a 4/1/0 tile if seafaring) and a 2/1/2 tile?
4 food in bin.
Produced 17 shields so far (either they or Team #1 completed a warrior).
Earned 31-32 commerce so far (31 if river wheat, 32 if seafaring) minus 1 for luxuries.

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Capital is Aerie, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile and a 2/1/1 tile.
0 food in bin.
Produced 14 shields so far. Built 1 warrior, 4 shields in bin.
Earned 27 commerce so far.

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Capital is Christiana, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile and a 2/1/2 tile.
0 food in bin.
Produced 14 shields so far.
Earned 20 commerce so far.

Something is wrong with this picture. By my reckoning Kuche should be at 7 cpt instead of 6. Either:

1. They mistakenly reassigned their second citizen to a 2/1/1 tile instead of the sugar hill.
2. They moved their worker off the wheat immediately instead of roading first.
3. I have a tile between Kuche and Anarchie confused.

I’ll have to wait for more information to see which it is.

Edit - they may not have a sugar hill in their immediate 9 since we've seen no evidence of their being one previously.

 

[Calis]

turn 9 for inspection...

 

[Calis]

Sorry, but here is turn 10...

 

[Chamnix]

From Turn 9:

Commerce (we have 6 cpt):

1 rival has more than 7
2 rivals have 6

Shields (we have 3 spt):

All rivals have 3 spt

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have 4 excess fpt.

Productivity (we have 13 = 4 food + 3 shields + 6 commerce):

1 rival has more than 13.
2 rivals have 13.

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Capital is Camelot, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/2 tile and a 2/1/2 tile.
8 food in bin.
Produced 20 shields so far (either they or Team #2 completed a warrior).
Earned 50 commerce so far minus 2 for luxuries equals 48 potential beakers.

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Capital is Essen, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile (or a 4/1/0 tile if seafaring) and a 2/1/1 tile?
8 food in bin.
Produced 20 shields so far (either they or Team #1 completed a warrior).
Earned 37-38 commerce so far (37 if river wheat, 38 if seafaring) minus 2 for luxuries.

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Capital is Aerie, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile and a 2/1/1 tile.
4 food in bin.
Produced 17 shields so far. Built 1 warrior, 7 shields in bin.
Earned 33 commerce so far minus 1 for luxuries equals 32 beakers.

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Capital is Christiana, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile and a 2/1/2 tile.
4 food in bin.
Produced 17 shields so far.
Earned 26 commerce so far minus 1 for luxuries equals 25 potential beakers.

Still not 100% sure…

 

[Chamnix]

From Turn 10:

Commerce (we have 6 cpt):

1 rival has more than 7
2 rivals have 6

Shields (we have 3 spt):

All rivals have 3 spt

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have 4 excess fpt.

Productivity (we have 13 = 4 food + 3 shields + 6 commerce):

1 rival has more than 13.
2 rivals have 13.

What we "know" about our rivals so far:

Team #1 - Knights playing as Carthage (seafaring and industrious)
Capital is Camelot, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/2 tile and a 2/1/2 tile.
12 food in bin.
Produced 23 shields so far (either they or Team #2 completed a warrior).
Earned 58 commerce so far minus 3 for luxuries equal 55 potential beakers.

Team #2 – Kuche (may be seafaring but is not industrious)
Capital is Essen, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile (or a 4/1/0 tile if seafaring) and a 2/1/1 tile?
12 food in bin.
Produced 23 shields so far (either they or Team #1 completed a warrior).
Earned 43-44 commerce so far (43 if river wheat, 44 if seafaring) minus 3 for luxuries.

Team #3 – Eagles playing as Byzantines (scientific and seafaring)
Capital is Aerie, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile and a 2/1/1 tile.
8 food in bin.
Produced 20 shields so far. Built 1 warrior, 10 shields in bin.
Earned 39 commerce so far minus 2 for luxuries equals 37 beakers.

Team #4 – Anarchie (not seafaring or industrious)
Capital is Christiana, size 2.
Currently working a 4/1/1 tile and a 2/1/2 tile.
8 food in bin.
Produced 20 shields so far.

 

[Chamnix]

I think what is inexplicable to me is turn 4-5 - one tribe seems to have gone from 4 commerce to 3 commerce, and I can't come up with any rational explanation.

 

[Cyc]

From what I gathered from early discussions at CivForums, some players there like to change up their citizen working assignments to confuse anyone whose studying the F11. Counter-Intelligence.