Demographic Analysis & Intelligence

[Cyc]

Hmm. Maybe someone built a scout. I'll have to look at the save again. 2 Warriors, a Scout, and a Worker maybe?

EDIT: Think maybe Kuche is Portugal?

The building of a Scout is no different than a Warrior, so that idea is out. But if they started with a Scout and are popping friendly huts, they may not need to stress commerce every turn. Especially if they've only built one Warrior.

 

[CharlemagneXLII]

An interesting idea, and that could have severe consequences for the philosophy race. It also explains why they opted for a worker over a settler. If they've been hut-popping, they've likely avoided building a settler for now in order to have a chance at getting one from a hut.

 

[Chamnix]

From Turn 15:

Commerce (we have 5 cpt):

1 rival has more than 6
2 rivals have 6

Shields (we have 2 spt):

2 rivals have more than 3 spt
1 rival has 3 spt

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have 3 or 4 excess fpt

Productivity (we have 11 = 4 food + 2 shields + 5 commerce):

All rivals have more than 11

Essen is now size 2.

 

[Calis]

Does anyone know anyone on that team? Are they very good players, or could they just be playing poorly?

From what I can say, both German teams have excellent players. At least Justanick (Kueche) and d73070d0 (Anarchie) are outstanding players. And there are other capable guys, too.

 

[EvilConqueror]

I omitted the team analysis in turn 14 because I really don't know who is doing what right now. We'll know more when we see who doesn't grow - one team is only getting 3 excess fpt instead of 4, and that team has likely produced more shields the last 2 turns. I will go back and edit in anything we can figure out.

Kuche produced around 35 shields by turn 13 = 10-shield warrior + 20-shield unit apparently.

Based on the Military Service figure in F11, we know that one team (and only one team) completed a military unit prior to our turn 6. Essen and Camelot should have each had 10 shields at that point, and Anarchie should have had 8, so we know that it was a warrior from either Essen or Camelot. No one had a second military unit until our turn 13. No one completed a worker or settler until our turn 15. Whatever was completed on turn 13, it took 7 turns, during most of which the city was at size 2.

Perhaps Essen built a 20 shield unit and then a curragh. And Camelot built the warrior prior to turn 6. Would that fit?

 

[Chamnix]

I think that would fit, but it is hard to believe anyone would build a 20-shield unit first instead of 2 warriors.

 

[Cyc]

With scouts not having an attack value, would that preclude them from the military statistic category?

In games I'm playing with Lanzelot, I've noticed that he does like to build a Curraph early. Maybe a build pattern for Kuche could be Warrior, Scout, Curragh, Scout, Worker. If the Hood went Warrior, Scout, Curragh, and then started a Granary wouldn'tthat substantiate the F11 Military status (If scouts don't have an effect on it).

 

[Calis]

As an expansionistic tribe you already start with a scout. I am not sure, whether it would be worthwhile building another one on such a small map

 

[Cyc]

So how would you answer Chamnix's question then?

 

[EvilConqueror]

As an expansionistic tribe you already start with a scout. I am not sure, whether it would be worthwhile building another one on such a small map

I think it would make sense to build another scout. Finding the other team quickly and getting a better feel for the land has its benefits.

Or something bad may have happened to the original scout and they had to replace it.

 

[Calis]

turn 16...

 

[Chamnix]

From Turn 16:

Commerce (we have 5 cpt):

2 rivals have more than 6
1 rival has 6 cpt

Shields (we have 2 spt):

2 rivals have more than 3 spt
1 rival has 3 spt

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have 3 or 4 excess fpt

Productivity (we have 11 = 4 food + 2 shields + 5 commerce):

All rivals have more than 11

Life Expentancy slipped to second place.

 

[Calis]

turn 17...

 

[Chamnix]

From Turn 17:

Commerce (we have 5 cpt):

All rivals have more than 6

Shields (we have 2 spt and will get +2 on growth):

All rivals have more than 3 spt

Food (we have 4 excess fpt):

All rivals have 3 or 4 excess fpt

Productivity (we have 11 = 4 food + 2 shields + 5 commerce):

All rivals have more than 11

Camelot is size 4.
Essen is size 3.
Christiana is size 3.

It appears that Christiana worked the +3 fpt so they will get to 60 shields before growth to size 4.

Life Expentancy slipped to third place.

 

[Chamnix]

Edited in that our life expectancy slipped to second place on turn 16 and third place on turn 17. Two tribes apparently completed granaries. It doesn't look possible with what we know about shield production, but they could have been aided by chops. We now should have enough information to fill in all the blanks once I (or someone else) has some time...

 

[Cyc]

Hood ~ Warrior on turn 6, then Granary on turn 16

Kuche ~ ?, Worker on turn 15

Eagles ~ Warrior on turn 7, Settler on turn 15

Anarchie ~ Warrior on turn 7, Granary on turn 17

Kuche is the Mystery. On turn 7 we produced our Warrior, so did Anarchie, making a three way tie for 1st in Military. But we dropped to 3rd in GNP, MFG, and Productivity. All three eventually made it back up to 2nd place by turn 11. Turn 12 saw us go back to 3rd in those three ctaegories, plus go to 4th in Disease because of our expansion. Looks like someone may have popped a Warior or Settler on Turn 13, as we went to 2nd place in Military, but it doesn't look as if any tribe produced a unit. We increased to 2nd place in GNP and Productivity.

Then in Turn 15 we dropped to 4th place in Pop, GNP, MFG, and Productivity because we produced a Settler and fel to size 1. But the production of the Settler raised us to 1st in Military.

Then on Turns 16 and 17, The Hood and Anarchie built their Granaries, respectively.

So what happened on turn 7 that made us drop a grade in GNP, MFG, and Productivity, even though we produced a Warrior? Did both Anarchie and us drop back a grade because of our Warrior? Or did Kuche produce a Scout, that has better stats? Or both? Hmmm. Gotta think about that one.

 

[Chamnix]

On our turn 7, we were still size 1, but Anarchie and The Hood were size 2.

 

[Cyc]

Ah, thanks. That wasn't in my notes. Should have looked again.

 

[Cyc]

Kuche could be...

Greece, having built a Hoplite (start with BW) and then a Curragh (start with Alphabet). Reason for a 20 shield unit is the extra defense and the UU. Followed by their Worker.

Japan, having built a Warrior then built a Chariot (start with The Wheel, had Worker hook up Horses), followed by their Worker.

Not sure about Portugal. 2 Curraghs and a Worker?

There are 6 expansionist tribes. Not sure if Scouts alter the Militaristic category.

As I posted in an earlier thread, Greece is favored by one of the leads in Kuche. It was either justanick or klienerHeldt. Can't rememer now. But I would guess they are Greece. Hoplites are the best defensive unit in the AA, then a Curragh for exploring, then their Worker. They are already back up to size 3, so with a fresh mine from their Worker, a Settler will probably come quick.

 

[CharlemagneXLII]

What do we make of the possibility of Zululand being out there? That could have immediate and drastic consequences, so it'd be good to know the odds of that.