Demographic Analysis & Intelligence

Maybe Essen did not build a worker, but whipped a cheaper building or unit for one citizen, then switched to a granary.

We were #3 the turn before, so in that time something happened to put us at #4- the only explanation is Essen building a granary.
 
OK, so they completed a unit on turn 13, had say 10 shields in the bin on turn 15, whipped an additional 20 shields, then accumulated 30 shields over the next 4 turns = 5 spt + 10 from a chop. It looks like it fits.

I really do hope they are on our continent - they seem to be playing strangely. Whipping a granary in a capital with only +4 fpt and lots of shields doesn't seem like it could be optimal.
 
Turn 20 - Kuche has a second city, but there is no way Essen built a settler. Essen dropped from size 3 to size 2 on turn 15. If that was from building a settler, then they would have had to have no food in the bin. They grew back to size 3 on turn 17. They must be the master hut-poppers this game. I'm not so sure I want to face them early anymore if they got a free settler/town...
 
From Turn 20:

Commerce (we have 11 cpt; 10 after corruption):

1 rival has 12 cpt
1 rival has 10 cpt
1 rival has 6 or less cpt

Shields (we have 6 spt):

1 rival has 6 spt
2 rivals have 5 spt

Food (we have 6 excess fpt and an average of 3 excess fpt):

All rivals average 3 excess fpt

Productivity (we have 22 = 6 food + 6 shields + 10 commerce):

2 rivals have 21
1 rival has 14

Camelot (Knights) is size 4.
Essen (Kuche) is size 2.
Wurzburg (Kuche) is size 1.
Christiana (Anarchie) is size 3.

We are #1 in military service with 3 years.

We are still #4 in disease with 3%, so I guess Wurzburg is not a flood plains city.

Our approval rating is 50%, and we are now #2. 66% would still leave us at #2, and 83% would make us #1. Kuche must have 2 happy and 1 content to be over 66%.
 
I'm not sure about the barbarian emergency theory anymore- I'm pretty Kuche is expansionist. Going by the fact we haven't seen any huts yet, it's fairly likely they've been using a scout for hut popping in order to find them so quickly. They must have popped a warrior and a settler (at least) from huts, possibly a tech too, They've also built a warrior, and still did that whip for the granary. The timing of the granaries for the other two, and a lack of any whipping, makes it unlikely the military units come from them.

Was it certain that both the Knights and Kuche are seafaring? If that's true, then Kuche, who is Portugal, has finished most of writing and will be on to philosophy soon.
 
It is not at all certain that Kuche is seafaring. The Knights are the only ones I'm (relatively) sure of.

Your theory makes sense, but I'm not sure how to account for Kuche losing a unit - they couldn't pop barbarians, and I wouldn't think there were barb camps already. Maybe they disbanded the popped conscript for shields? I would think the explorer/MP would be worth more to them than 2 shields :dunno:.
 
From Turn 21:

Commerce (we have 11 cpt; 10 after corruption):

1 rival has 12 cpt
1 rival has 10 cpt
1 rival has 7 cpt

Shields (we have 6 spt):

1 rival has 6 spt
2 rivals have 5 spt

Food (we have 6 excess fpt and an average of 3 excess fpt):

1 rival averages more than 3 excess fpt
2 rivals average 3 excess fpt

Productivity (we have 22 = 6 food + 6 shields + 10 commerce):

2 rivals have 21
1 rival has 16

Camelot (Knights) is size 4.
Essen (Kuche) is size 2.
Wurzburg (Kuche) is size 1.
Christiana (Anarchie) is size 3.

We are #1 in military service with 3 years.

We are still #4 in disease with 3%, so I guess Wurzburg is not a flood plains city.

Our approval rating is 50%, and we are still #2. 66% would still leave us at #2, and 83% would make us #1. Kuche must have 2 happy and 1 content to be over 66%.

Note that the water to the south/east of our warrior is fresh water.
 
CharlemagneXLII said:
They must have popped a warrior and a settler (at least) from huts, possibly a tech too,
Click to expand...

Seems kind of odd that they were able to pop so many huts and we haven't seen a single one. :sad:

Chamnix said:
Your theory makes sense, but I'm not sure how to account for Kuche losing a unit - they couldn't pop barbarians, and I wouldn't think there were barb camps already. Maybe they disbanded the popped conscript for shields? I would think the explorer/MP would be worth more to them than 2 shields :dunno:.
Click to expand...

Maybe disease killed a unit?
 
Both are extremely unlikely. Does disease % allow for any other civ to have jungle in their borders?

Yet if they beat a barbarian and fortified in the jungle to heal, it is a possibility. I really don't think they would have been stupid enough to leave a units chilling near an active volcano.
 
They could be acting strangely to confuse us so we spend a good deal of effort trying to figure out what's going on. Counter espionage, as it were.
 
From Turn 22:

Commerce (we have 11 cpt; 10 after corruption):

1 rival has more than 12 cpt
1 rival has 10 cpt
1 rival has 7 cpt

Shields (we have 6 spt):

1 rival has 7 spt
1 rival has 6 spt
1 rival has 5 spt

Food (we have 6 excess fpt and an average of 3 excess fpt):

All rivals average 2 excess fpt

Productivity (we have 22 = 6 food + 6 shields + 10 commerce):

1 rival has 22
1 rival has 21
1 rival has 17

Camelot (Knights) is size 4.
Essen (Kuche) is size 2.
Wurzburg (Kuche) is size 1.
Christiana (Anarchie) is size 4.

We are #1 in military service with 3 years.

We are still #4 in disease with 3%.

Our approval rating is 50%, and we are still #2. 66% would still leave us at #2, and 83% would make us #1. Kuche must have 2 happy and 1 content to be over 66%.

Our annual income of 1 per capita is now second place.
 
Some cumulative results through 22 turns assuming the ranking of our rivals has stayed the same every turn.

Most commerce - 190
Second most - 148
Least commerce - 115
Our commerce - 135

Most shields - 91
Second most - 85
Fewest shields - 72
Our shields - 75
 
Are you assuming that the Brotherhood takes first in Commerce and the Kuche takes first in Shields? That would seem to keep things balanced.
 
I'm not really assuming anything about specific teams in that post. I'm just saying that if one team (excluding us) has been in first place in commerce every turn so far, then that team would have earned approximately 190 commerce.

Similarly, if one team (excluding us) has been in first place in shields every turn so far, then that team would have produced approximately 91 shields.

It could be the same team in both categories, or it could be different teams. Most likely, the leaders have changed at least a few times, so that no team has earned quite that much commerce or quite that many shields.
 
I've noticed that Essen (size 2) is still 2nd on the Best Cities list, even though Christiana is a size 4. Just for shucks, can you try running your numbers to see if the Kuche may have built a Temple? Maybe they chose to be a religious Tribe. A very early Temple would give them a large lead in the Culture department and certainly help with lack of luxuries.

Of course The Brotherhood is still in 1st place, so that probably doesn't make a difference.

EDIT: Spain was the Tribe I was thinking about. Seafaring and Religious.
 
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