Diplomatic Victory AI attitude prediction

Doug L

Aug 28, 2022
I just finished playing a game as the Celts on Emperor difficulty. Everything went swimmingly and I managed to generate a big tech lead and build the United Nations. Prior to this, I had only been involved in one major war when the French attacked without warning. This resulted in the French being reduced to one city on a little island that I couldn't be bothered trying to find and they were remained furious for the remainder of the game. The only other "war" was a sneak attack by the Persians that I saw off easily without entering their territory. The second largest civilization was China. With the exception of the French, AI attitudes ranged from polite to gracious IIRC. Prior to the first vote, I entered MPP with the French (thought it was worth a try), the Aztecs Persians and Russians. The "polite" Babylonians declined my MPP offer. I gifted techs and gold to the Babylonians, Aztecs and Persians on the basis that they appeared to be the most likely to support me in the UN vote along with the Indians who were gracious and had been at war with China.
The vote resulted in a tie with support coming from India, Persia and the Aztecs. The other three supported China, so there was no result. Two Civs with which I had MPP still voted for the other side! Thereafter the Indians were eliminated, so I decided not to chance another vote. I continued to trade with everyone and gifted the odd tech and cash just to keep my options open but passed on a couple of votes. When the fourth voting chance came, I mis-clicked and the vote went ahead. To my surprise, everyone now supported me apart from France.
Nothing obvious had happened that would lead me to expect that Babylon and Russia would switch sides, so my question is whether there is any formula that determines whether an opposing civilization will vote for you or not?
MPPs do not affect voting behavior. You need actual wars, as the AI won't vote for someone they are at war with. They also won't vote for someone they don't like, even if the other guy is worse. (For example, if they are cautious toward you, they won't vote for you, even if they are furious at your opponent.) They vote for the person they like best of the options remaining after throwing out anyone they are at war with or don't like. If no one is left, they don't vote.
MPPs do not affect voting behavior.
They do affect AI Attitude and therefore voting behavior. Still MPPs are not they best way to approach the subject. Leading everyone into a war against your opponent in the election is far more effective.

Here is the formula for AI Attitude:

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