#### Seraiel

##### If you want anything from I please ask in German

- Joined
- Sep 6, 2011

- Messages
- 8,165

**Hi everybody!**

I'm just puking (literally speaken) really hard because of what happened in a beautiful round

**twice**!

I can only give data on the

**2nd series of combats,**because the combat log doesn't go back far enough:

Conquistador 1 attacks LB with

**75% chance: loss**

Conquistador 2 attacks LB with

**75% chance: loss**

Conquistador 3 attacks XB with

**78% chance: loss**

**Then:**

Enemy

**HA attacks my fortified Formation Pikeman (!) with 8% chance: Pikeman wins but his health is only 0.6 / 6**so he lost 90% of his life in a fight where he had 90% chances to win.

**After that:**

2 Conquistadors attack wounded HAs with 99% chance, both get reduced to 75% health.

Next Conquistador attacks with

**65% chance: loss.**

Followed by Conquistador with

**75% chance: win.**

And again Conquistador with

**85% chance: loss.**

Conquistador with

**85% chance: win.**

Conq with

**90% chance: win.**

Conq with

**90% chance: win.**

Conq with

**50% chance: loss.**

Conq with

**75% chance: win.**

Conq with

**99% chance: win**

__but only 10% health,__this was a GG.

Now I know this is wrong math (I can't do better, that's why I ask the mathematicians in this forum)

**but from just counting the % I've lost about 250% in 6 fights. How likely is this to happen?**

Also, when I look at specific fights, like the HA against the fortified Formation-Pike (just think about that, the Pike from late medievil times and it's tripple promoted for anti-mounted while the HA is from ancient times and I think was double promoted, STR was 8 for the HA and 13 for the Formation Pike) , or the Conquistador-GG against a Catapult (!!!!)

**with 99% oods, where my Troops loose almost their whole life...**

How in the world can this happen?

When I looked at the combat-odds for the next fight (just random-Conq against random-defender) , he had 40% chances to win, but 20% chances to be reduced to 10% life.

**I'm asking you 3 questions:**

**1.**A mathematician, please tell me, how likely are the results of the combats I've posted. It's real data, I didn't fake it, I just wanna know if it's something very very unlikely, or something which can happen from time to time, because if it's the last, I have to adapt.

I'm skeptical, because this actually happend twice in a row, first with Knights, having the same chances (I took notes about the chances because I was just so mad about it, I lost 75%, 85% and 95% in a row followed by 2 70% losses so 5 losses in 5 fights having over 70%) and then with the Conqs, so please, tell me the chances for this to happen 1 time, and the chances for 2 times in a row.

**2.**Why are my units loosing so much health? Why do I have a 40% chance on a win, but half of that chance, my unit is reduced to a minimum of life? Is there something I understand completely wrong, or how can a HAs be so successful against a Formation-Pike, how can a Conq fail so badly against a lousy Catapult. Is there something I can learn from this.

**Is there some sort of general advice you can give , like "if you attack with 80% odds, you need double numbers because loosing all your troops has a likehood fo 1:x" . Is AI cheating somehow or are there hidden modifiers not shown by the game-interface / BUFFY, or do I simply don't get it. I'm a student of medicine, I'm horrible at Maths, but I'm very good in repetition, can you give examples?**

3.

3.

Appreciate your answers,

Seraiel