Wut ? It's the entire point of your post, to describe how conservative are supposed to think and assign moral value. That's one part. Humans tend to overestimate personal responsibility and underestimate outside factors. But that's just one of several aspects. Another part is simply perception bias - until you've actually lived through something, you just infer how it happens or work through how you imagine it does. Yet another part is just psychological defense mechanism : if something is bad, you try to find reasons why it shouldn't happen to you - inversely, if something is good, you try to find reasons why it should happen to you. My message you quoted initially was in fact mainly about this third point.