BlackBetsy
Emperor
- Joined
- Feb 15, 2005
- Messages
- 1,049
For anyone following my Hall of Fame thread, you know I am working on a 20k game at Large Emperor. To meet my hoped for completion date (1625), I am dumping all games that do not result in an SGL with Ceremonial Burial. I'm playing as the Persians (Scientific, Industrious) I've picked all non-religious civs as opponents, and there are no barbarians (AI can't pop CB in huts). Pangaea, 60% water. So in general, if I am the first to a tech, I have a 5% chance to get an SGL. The Industrious trait allows you to road faster, allowing faster science to happen in the early game.
I am playing almost exclusively river/cow starts with a BG on a river tile as well. As a result, I am fairly frequently hitting CB @ 3250 BC, or turn 15. I have not seen any sudden unexplained reduction in time to completion of CB suggesting some other civ has gotten it first, but it's hard to tell early in the game.
My results suggest I am either insanely unlucky or I am doing something wrong. In my first attempt, I got an SGL the first time I eliminated Barbs. In that game, my opponents were the French, Korea, Greece, Germany, Byzantines, and England. I finished that game in 1685.
I then tried again. I re-rolled 36 times before I got an SGL. There is about a 16% chance that a 5% SGL doesn't hit in 36 turns. I had to dump that because the map was bad and I rolled another 50 times before I got an SGL. There is only an 8% chance of that. I finished that game @1655 without another SGL during the game.
I started re-rolling again. It took me 46 tries before I got an SGL, which only came when I was located on an island off the mainland (without Alphabet to trade for to build curraghs, of course). There is a 9% chance you can go 46 tries without an SGL. Now I've tried again and just finished try number 40 without an SGL (13%). The odds of these things are 16% * 8 % * 9% * 13%, which is 1 in 6,677.
My current opponents are Germany, Byzantines, England, Mongols, Russians, and America. None have CB. Only America is industrious, so it takes them a bit to ramp up science.
Yes, 1 in 6,677 events happen. But the more likely explanation is something I'm doing is wrong. Clearly SGL's aren't turned off! As noted above, I haven't noticed any drops in completion of CB, so I think I'm hitting it first.
Any thoughts?
I am playing almost exclusively river/cow starts with a BG on a river tile as well. As a result, I am fairly frequently hitting CB @ 3250 BC, or turn 15. I have not seen any sudden unexplained reduction in time to completion of CB suggesting some other civ has gotten it first, but it's hard to tell early in the game.
My results suggest I am either insanely unlucky or I am doing something wrong. In my first attempt, I got an SGL the first time I eliminated Barbs. In that game, my opponents were the French, Korea, Greece, Germany, Byzantines, and England. I finished that game in 1685.
I then tried again. I re-rolled 36 times before I got an SGL. There is about a 16% chance that a 5% SGL doesn't hit in 36 turns. I had to dump that because the map was bad and I rolled another 50 times before I got an SGL. There is only an 8% chance of that. I finished that game @1655 without another SGL during the game.
I started re-rolling again. It took me 46 tries before I got an SGL, which only came when I was located on an island off the mainland (without Alphabet to trade for to build curraghs, of course). There is a 9% chance you can go 46 tries without an SGL. Now I've tried again and just finished try number 40 without an SGL (13%). The odds of these things are 16% * 8 % * 9% * 13%, which is 1 in 6,677.
My current opponents are Germany, Byzantines, England, Mongols, Russians, and America. None have CB. Only America is industrious, so it takes them a bit to ramp up science.
Yes, 1 in 6,677 events happen. But the more likely explanation is something I'm doing is wrong. Clearly SGL's aren't turned off! As noted above, I haven't noticed any drops in completion of CB, so I think I'm hitting it first.
Any thoughts?
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