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Early SGL - Please Help

BlackBetsy

Prince
Joined
Feb 15, 2005
Messages
502
For anyone following my Hall of Fame thread, you know I am working on a 20k game at Large Emperor. To meet my hoped for completion date (1625), I am dumping all games that do not result in an SGL with Ceremonial Burial. I'm playing as the Persians (Scientific, Industrious) I've picked all non-religious civs as opponents, and there are no barbarians (AI can't pop CB in huts). Pangaea, 60% water. So in general, if I am the first to a tech, I have a 5% chance to get an SGL. The Industrious trait allows you to road faster, allowing faster science to happen in the early game.

I am playing almost exclusively river/cow starts with a BG on a river tile as well. As a result, I am fairly frequently hitting CB @ 3250 BC, or turn 15. I have not seen any sudden unexplained reduction in time to completion of CB suggesting some other civ has gotten it first, but it's hard to tell early in the game.

My results suggest I am either insanely unlucky or I am doing something wrong. In my first attempt, I got an SGL the first time I eliminated Barbs. In that game, my opponents were the French, Korea, Greece, Germany, Byzantines, and England. I finished that game in 1685.

I then tried again. I re-rolled 36 times before I got an SGL. There is about a 16% chance that a 5% SGL doesn't hit in 36 turns. I had to dump that because the map was bad and I rolled another 50 times before I got an SGL. There is only an 8% chance of that. I finished that game @1655 without another SGL during the game.

I started re-rolling again. It took me 46 tries before I got an SGL, which only came when I was located on an island off the mainland (without Alphabet to trade for to build curraghs, of course). There is a 9% chance you can go 46 tries without an SGL. Now I've tried again and just finished try number 40 without an SGL (13%). The odds of these things are 16% * 8 % * 9% * 13%, which is 1 in 6,677.

My current opponents are Germany, Byzantines, England, Mongols, Russians, and America. None have CB. Only America is industrious, so it takes them a bit to ramp up science.

Yes, 1 in 6,677 events happen. But the more likely explanation is something I'm doing is wrong. Clearly SGL's aren't turned off! As noted above, I haven't noticed any drops in completion of CB, so I think I'm hitting it first.

Any thoughts?
 
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Are you sure that you get CB first? You are playing on Emperor, they grow 25% faster and start with an additional worker, while you have to invest 25% more into technology. You are playing with 6 opponents on a large pangea map with 60% water, so a lot of great starting possibilities for the ai and some will also start researching CB. Have you checked if they do not have it (for example via safe game editor of Civ3 multi tool)? Sorry if the question is stupid.
 
It's a cheap 1st tier tech, so theoretically easy to get first, if there are no Religious civs on the map.
 
Since you did not check how often an AI has simply researched CB before you, it will be way less than "1 in 6,677".
And 4 repetitions is virtually nothing in statistics, so I would not expect to find anything special if you got the basic numbers straight...
t_x
 
Since you did not check how often an AI has simply researched CB before you, it will be way less than "1 in 6,677".
And 4 repetitions is virtually nothing in statistics, so I would not expect to find anything special if you got the basic numbers straight...
t_x
My disbelief in the math is what led me to post this. I don't have a save file reader / editor (I tried the one here but it doesn't work on my more recent version of windows). The logical conclusion is that I am being beat to CB a very high percentage of the time.
 
You see a cost-reduction of a tech only if a civ, that you have met already, researches it! If a civ that you don't know yet, finishes it before you, you won't notice!
 
Hi Lanzelot. Long time no see. I hope you are well. Apologies for the derail everyone. Lanzelot basically taught me how to play.

On topic - have the rules changed? Can you get a GSL at start now?
 
On topic - have the rules changed? Can you get a GSL at start now?
Hi Walletta, good to see you here again!

No, the rules of the base game haven't changed*. You still can't get an SGL on Turn 1 from starting techs (if that's what you meant?).

But getting an SGL by being first to learn a cheap Tier 1 tech (in this case, CB) that no-one else has (because you deliberately chose non-Religious opponents), yes, that's always been possible.

*That said, there are now many additional bugfixes and improvements to the base-game available via @Flintlock's "C3X" patch-system. If you thought DG+ AIs were scary before, just imagine them wielding Artillery and Armies... :hide:
 
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