Election ads for unelectable governments

[Arwon]

Background: In March, the state of New South Wales will go to the polls and turf out the NSW Labor government which has been in charge for 16 years.

For various reasons, the result is likely to be unprecedented in living Australian memory, in terms of how bad it looks for Labor. They'll be out of power for a generation. They are polling 20% and while I'd expect them to get more than that, that is still nearly third party territory. Almost half of Labor's MPs are not re-running, the campaign is focusing on normally safe seats Labor has never lost before. There is blood in the water.

Anyway, I'm posting because this appears to be their first ad. I've been curious what line they could possibly run and it turns out the answer is: running desperately against their own record, not mentioning what party they're from, and apologising for everything:


Link to video.

Ever had any desperate election ads from politicians - ads that don't even bother to go negative against the opposition, but just beg for forgiveness and another chance? I'm sure the Irish will have some fun examples in their upcoming election.

 

[emzie]

If a party is that out of favour, I don't see what else they can do but go for sympathy, play to party loyalists and pretend to acknowledge every failing.

Is she from North America? Her accent is so odd.

 

[Karalysia]

Labor is the left-wing party right? So who's going to pick up their seats? Liberals (the conservatives right?)? Or does any third party stand to gain? Greens? Socialists?

 

[Arwon]

The Liberals are looking at winning 2/3rds of the 90-something seats. At least. Their mates the Nationals will retain theirs and possibly pick up a couple more off independents and Labor.

Labor are nominally "left wing" but the NSW branch in particular is utterly dominated by Labor Right, they can barely be called progressive in NSW (as opposed to in the ACT or Victoria).

The Greens are hoping to win 2 seats from high profile inner city Labor members (the Deputy Premier and Education Minister), and we'll come second behind the Liberals in a bunch of other inner city seats, relegating Labor to third. I think we'll also end up a distant second in Premier Keneally's seat, demographically it is getting stronger for us.

There's some independents who will retain their seats, most notably the Mayor of Sydney Clover Moore (her seat would be Labor vs Greens if she wasn't there getting 60% of the vote), and several rural indepenendents. There may also be a couple of other independents who win seats, probably in traditionally strong Labor areas around Wollongong, Western Sydney or Newcastle

If a party is that out of favour, I don't see what else they can do but go for sympathy, play to party loyalists and pretend to acknowledge every failing.

Is she from North America? Her accent is so odd.

Ohio, became a citizen in 2000.

 

[emzie]

Just how did Labour drive themselves so firmly into the ground? I mean, between this election and last, what went wrong with them? Was it the election of ---

Ohio

-- oh, well there's your problem.

Is the accent just putting on airs then?

 

[Arwon]

Nah, it's just a hybrid of her American accent and having lived in Australia for 15 years. Most American-Australians get something similar.

She's the 4th Premier since the last election, 3 others were dumped and replaced. As for what went wrong... the (mostly accurate) perception of unending sleaze, corruption, instability, scandal and incompetence.

In Australia we expect nothing from our state governments except service delivery (there is serious talk of abolishing states because they don't do anything else). So the perception that Labor is utterly failing on basic managerial competence (in transport especially) has killed them.

Add to that the natural problems with longevity (16 years now they've been in power), and the fact that there's now a Labor government federally, but it's mostly just the sleaze and incompetence thing. Really Labor should have been gone 4 years ago, but the Libs totally botched the campaign.

 

[Camikaze]

There are no safe seats for the ALP this election. Which is kinda hilarious. I noticed a few signs in people's yards for my local member, and it took a while to find the tiny little 'Labor' stamp right at the bottom.

I like how this ad gives absolutely no details about this new act, but just focuses on positive buzz words. It makes it easier for me to preference Liberal. What I don't like is the seeming lack of good alternative to the hopelessness displayed in this ad.

@contre- she's the third premier since the last election, and she's generally regarded as a factional puppet (although her personal popularity isn't actually that bad, AFAIK). Her deposition of Rees was certainly not very popular.

 

[emzie]

Wait, you spell the party Labor? What is wrong with your country?

 

[Camikaze]

Wait, you spell the party Labor? What is wrong with your country?

Yes. Thank him. Labor traditionally represents labour.

 

[Arwon]

A politician called King O'Malley, supposedly a Canadian but probably American, got Labor to adopt the American spelling in the 1910s or 1920s because it was thought to look more modern and to distinguish from labour in general.

 

[Camikaze]

@Arwon- what exactly is the statewide swing looking to be? My seat has always been Labor, and is held 65-35. A 15 point swing seems quite likely.

 

[Arwon]

It'll probably be uneven, but a 15% swing in some seats is within the realms of possibility (remember the Penrith by-election had a 25% swing). For example, Antony Green calls Strathfield a possible Liberal gain.

What seat are you in? Strathfield? Some seats on that margin are certainly vulnerable (I know the Liberals are working very hard on building bridges with groups like the Chinese community, who judging by what happened in the Federal election, are likely to desert Labor in record numbers). A lot of individual seat outcomes will come down to preference flows, bearing in mind that preferences are optional in NSW. Greens and independent voters will exhaust their ballots at an unusually high rate this time around, depriving Labor of preference flows which will increase the apparent swing on TPP.

I expect you'll see unusually intense campaigning. I understand that the Libs are pouring resources into places like Wollongong and some hugely safe seats in Western Sydney, and Labor is essentially writing off anything held by less than 10% (except for Balmain and Marrickville against the Greens).

The Tallyroom (run by a mate of mine in the NSW Greens) has some excellent seat-by-seat analysis including booth maps.

And of course Antony Green's website is always good too.

 

[Camikaze]

East Hills for me. The other seat I'm pretty interested in is Bankstown, which was Tony Stewart's, and is now going to be contested for the ALP by the Bankstown mayor. It would seem pretty safe, though. Cabramatta should also be pretty interesting.

 

[Masada]

Good, New South Wales Labor needs to die on a fire - what a bunch of corrupt petite facists.

 

[Lord Baal]

Good, New South Wales Labor needs to die on a fire - what a bunch of corrupt petite facists.

In any other country they'd have been lynched years ago. Sometimes - okay, often - I despise the general political apathy of this so-called nation.

 

[Bast]

I will probably vote for Kristina. But I'm so sick of political ads advertising how they're for families. They're annoying. Kids are annoying. We're overpopulated. How about somebody who's for singles?

 

[Tee Kay]

I know zilch about state politics outside of Victoria (and come to think of it, not much about Victorian politics either. Yeah, I guess I'm one of Lord Baal's apathetic people), can I get a list of all the crimes the NSW Govt have commited?

 

[Lord Baal]

I know zilch about state politics outside of Victoria (and come to think of it, not much about Victorian politics either. Yeah, I guess I'm one of Lord Baal's apathetic people), can I get a list of all the crimes the NSW Govt have commited?

It would probably be easier to give you a list of the crimes they haven't committed. No, that's not just a joke, it's sadly true. There are even a few of them who were considered suspects in that legitimate businessman/ loan-shark Michael(?) McGurk's murder.

EDIT: While I've been unable t find an actual list of all the NSW governments' crimes and scandals, to put this into perspective a quick wiki search revealed this list of around 40 political controversies in Australia's history, ranging from the Rum Rebellion to "UteGate" (stop putting the word "gate" at the end of every scandal already! ). There have been a greater number of scandals involving the NSW government, this term, than on that 200 year list.

 

[Arwon]

I've started calling NSW Labor the Rum Corps.

I will probably vote for Kristina. But I'm so sick of political ads advertising how they're for families. They're annoying. Kids are annoying. We're overpopulated. How about somebody who's for singles?

You live in Heffron?

If so, vote for Mehreen Faruqi, the Greens candidate. She's my mate's mum and is awesome and I will be handing out for her on election day.

I know zilch about state politics outside of Victoria (and come to think of it, not much about Victorian politics either. Yeah, I guess I'm one of Lord Baal's apathetic people), can I get a list of all the crimes the NSW Govt have commited?

The list of actual criminal offences is probably relatively small, but the list of scandals will be far longer.

 

[Lord Baal]

A quick google search has revealed the following scandals, several of them outright criminal acts and others merely "alleged," at least at this time.

The most current scandal, involving the Education Minister's husband being caught buying drugs in a sting operation.

The first of several sex scandals involving the Planning Department. (You want a house built? How about you and I discuss it while I nail a hooker on your dime?)

This sex scandal cost John Della Bosca his job. He was considered a likely Premier at the time.

Here's the guy who used his taxpayer-funded car to visit gay pick-up joints, including (allegedly) several outright brothels. His job? Transport Minister.

And this is a short story on the situation in Penrith.

If I had time I could find plenty more to choose from. Notably Planning Department scandals. They seem to have a lot of them.