Elections in 2017

[onejayhawk]

I think their morale really needs this win.

edit: Also, VA Gov primaries were yesterday. Seems to have been close on the GOP side.

Good point about their morale. Comey and Sessions blew up in their face. They need good news badly.

On the Va. primary, the Trump aligned candidate did much better than expected.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...keaways_from_the_virginia_primary_134189.html

J

 

[onejayhawk]

Another twist in the Georgia runoff. The Republican is sent a note ranting against fascists and dusted with white powder. This is the day after the shooting of Republican Whip Scalise and three others.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...P-candidate-gets-white-powder-mailed-her.html

J

 

[dutchfire]

Funny that the Daily Mail should have the best coverage of a special election in Georgia.

 

[JohannaK]

Not even the Sakhartvelo Georgia, at that.

 

[onejayhawk]

Funny that the Daily Mail should have the best coverage of a special election in Georgia.

It tends to cast the Republican in a sympathetic light.

J

 

[Lexicus]

Ossoff loses by 5%

 

[metalhead]

Not that surprising.

Archie Parnell losing by less than 4? Pretty surprising. He needs to be the model for candidates going forward.

 

[dutchfire]

Everybody aboard the Trump train! Full steam ahead!

(Never mind that the track might be a dead end)

 

[metalhead]

The track runs into the side of a mountain painted to look like a tunnel. Just like in the old Roadrunner cartoons.

 

[Lexicus]

The track runs into the side of a mountain painted to look like a tunnel. Just like in the old Roadrunner cartoons.

Sure, yeah, except that the Democrats can't win elections apparently.

 

[metalhead]

That's why the train is going to crash into the mountain at full steam.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Still overall encouraged. It sucks to have no wins, but that's 5/5 in vastly over performing previous election results, and only in Georgia did Dems do worse than Hillary. I mean, these were tough states for Dems to win anything at any level in. 538, RCP, all of them are showing a good 8 point swing towards generic dem candidate from last congressional elections. The biggest hurdle is how brutal the 2018 map is. It might be 2020, with the president on the line, that we get a real Dem wave-ish thing. Too bad that's so far off still.

 

[Lexicus]

I'm not encouraged by this. I am pretty convinced at this point that the Democrats are going to lose seats in 2018. I can only hope that I'm wrong, and I will say that obviously my mind is open to being changed and that November 2018 is still a long way away.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Yeah, I mean, a lot still relies on Trump and the economy and what happens with health care. As said, the 2018 map is really tough, all things being equal, for Dems. Their success hinges on if they really have opened up a sizeable lead, otherwise it's not a good year to try to make gains. And it's not like gerrymandering and voting restriction is going anywhere. I think 2020 is where the big push is going to be. That's 3 more years though of a cluster**** of **** from DC.

 

[Lexicus]

Nah, I think we need to get out of our heads the idea that it relies on Trump. If we think that way Trump is just going to win again. The election needs to be about what the Democrats will do for people when they're in power. One of the articles I read today about Ossoff's loss said that a recent poll showed only 31% of voters believing that their lives will improve if the Democrats take control of Congress. If they can't get that number up they're going to lose, period.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Well, that goes along with institutional cynicism, which is tough to get a fix on. The same poll had 26% for the current Republican congress making their lives better. Congress - both parties - have lower approval ratings than Trump, significantly. I don't know what the fix is. There's a seething hatred (much of it fair) and tribalism that basically protects only incumbents and gerrymandered districts. I think it's currently impossible, truly, for an entire political party to poll that high right now, even if it was entirely lead by politicians that have good ratings, like Sanders or, on the other side, Kasich.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Also, I wasn't that clear; my point was that a lot of election results will rely partially on what Trump does - if the economy stalls a bit and Trump doesn't have any policy to fix it, people will turn. If he gets us into a crappy war, people will turn. It wasn't that we need to be all "we're not trump!!!!!" just that electoral success is still partially predicated on his success, or lack there of.

 

[Lexicus]

I don't know what the fix is.

Neither do I. I like to think it would involve doubling down on the Sanders challenge and going left in an effort to inspire people who don't normally vote. But I'm not sure that will work either. I am, as you probably know, not convinced that the US is going to be a democratic country (which probably begs the question of whether it is currently a democratic country) for much longer.

If he gets us into a crappy war, people will turn.

I'm worried that the opposite will occur. The establishment seemingly couldn't praise him enough after he fired missiles at Syria. Starting a war may be his last resort if he really starts to come under domestic political pressure.

 

[dutchfire]

I am pretty convinced at this point that the Democrats are going to lose seats in 2018.

Sorry, do you mean house or senate? Latter, probably yes. Former, well, that would be real bad news for them.

 

[Lexicus]

Sorry, do you mean house or senate? Latter, probably yes. Former, well, that would be real bad news for them.

Both.