Elections in Israel

Who'll win?


  • Total voters
    65

Winner

Diverse in Unity
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Since this will influence the whole Middle East and thus by extension the whole world, I think we should have a thread about it.

So, let's discuss who'll win, post articles and media updates here and talk about the consequences and possible scenarios for the future.

So far voter turnout is higher than expected:

Voter turnout in Israel's general election Tuesday was heavier than expected, standing at 23.4 percent of the electorate by midday.

In contrast, only 21.7 percent of voters had cast ballots by the same point during the last election in 2006. If the voter turnout remains constant throughout the day, the final rate could reach 69 percent, as opposed to 63.5 percent in the 2006 vote.

Haaretz
 
No idea, really. Israeli politics is a mess - too many parties, too many changes in coalitions, it's hard to follow for an outsider :)
 
Opinion polls.


The latest (6 feb)

Likud: 27
Kadima: 25
Yisrael Beiteinu: 18
Labour: 14
Shas: 9
Meretz: 7
United Torah Judaism: 6
other smaller parties...

There are 120 seats in Knesset, you need more that 60 to have a stable government. If this was the final result, Likud could probably form a government with 4 or 5 smaller parties.

Sheesh, and I thought that Czech politics was messy...
 
Just ignore him and focus on the topic, please :)

OK, thats fair enough. I'll change the question, Winner, what party do you support and why, and Bast, why do you support Kadima? Which of their policies do you like over Likud, etc?
 
OK, thats fair enough. I'll change the question, Winner, what party do you support and why, and Bast, why do you support Kadima? Which of their policies do you like over Likud, etc?
Well first of all they're centrist. And I'll support centrist parties over right wing parties any day. I like Tzipi's policies on civil liberties and foreign policy (I think peace is more achievable with Kadima) and obviously they're tough on national security too. Likud has a bad image as too right wing and that's not the message that Israel should want to give out to the world right now. That's what I think anyway.
 
OK, thats fair enough. I'll change the question, Winner, what party do you support and why, and Bast, why do you support Kadima? Which of their policies do you like over Likud, etc?

Well, in present situation, I'd vote for Likud. Talks with Palestinians have failed because there is simply nobody to talk to - Palestinian Authority has practically collapsed and it doesn't control its own territory anymore and Hamas is a terrorist organization bent on destroying Israel.

Kadima's programme has always been focused on diplomacy/foreign policy, that is the reason why it was founded in the first place. Without it, what else could it offer? Israel waged two wars with Kadima at the helm and it has not won a decisive enough victory in either of them. I think Kadima is too worried about dimplomacy, so much that it threatens Israeli national security for the sake of Israel's image abroad.

On the other hand, I don't trust Likud to be much different.
 
Don't have much knowledge about Israeli politics, but I read a long interview with Livni recently and the way she tried appearing hawkish would be a great turnoff for me. Her arguments sounded a lot like the right wing crap that the neo cons in the US were spouting in the Bush years.
 
Don't have much knowledge about Israeli politics, but I read a long interview with Livni recently and the way she tried appearing hawkish would be a great turnoff for me. Her arguments sounded a lot like the right wing crap that the neo cons in the US were spouting in the Bush years.

She has to be. She leads a centrist party to elections in which right wing parties are more likely to win a majority.
 
Just to clarify, are you asking who will win, or who we want to win?
 
Something about the Israeli political system:

Israel has a parliamentary democracy system with partial separation of powers between the judicial branch on the one hand, and the legislative and executive branches on the other. The President is largely a ceremonial figurehead. The post was probably created in part by David Ben-Gurion to honor Chaim Weizmann (see Presidents of Israel). The President is elected by the Knesset.

120 members of the Knesset (parliament) are elected in nation-wide elections from party lists. The head of the party that has the best chance of forming a coalition (usually, but not necessarily the party with the largest number of mandates) is then chosen by the President to attempt to form a government. Since no party has ever won a majority, a coalition must be formed.

The Israeli system is not like the British system, in which members are elected from districts. Rather, it is like the French Fourth Republic system. The members are chosen from party lists, and are elected in proportion to the number of votes received by the party, according to the predetermined order of candidates that was presented to the elections commission. As a result, the members are not beholden to a particular constituency and some of the back-bench members of larger lists are virtual unknowns. In theory, this produces a system based on ideologies represented in the party platforms. In the early years of the state this resulted in the formation of numerous small lists. The law has been amended repeatedly to raise the minimum percentage required for a party to enter the Knesset. According to the latest revision (Bader-Ofer Law), a party that receives less than 2% of the vote gets no representation at all, and its votes are "lost" - they are distributed proportionately. Excess vote of different parties that passed the minimum may be traded according to prior agreement.

A peculiarity of the system is that even though members are elected to lists, the mandate belongs to the individual. Individuals or groups may split off from the main party taking their mandates with them. Often they do leave to form new lists and one person "factions," resulting in a bewildering array of tiny "parties" that usually exist for one Knesset session only. Individuals or groups that leave with the intention of forcing a change in their party often form "lists" rather than parties, indicating that the ideological platform is the same as that of the original party, but the personnel are different. Such lists (reshimot) usually last for one or two elections. The Rafi list of David Ben-Gurion was one such party.

Source
 
I voted to Kadima a few hours ago, and my mom voted to Labor party (Haavoda). My cousin voted Meretz.

Elections are always a mess.
I'll try to sum my views of why.. I'll use the poll of parties as legend, but don't forget we have 33 parties (!!!) running, including 2 for marijuana legalization, 3 mainly for arabs, etc...

Likud: (poll 27) : Right-wing party with Netanyahu. They (and him) are corruption at it's peak. Netanyahu is a megalomaniac with personal ambitions for more wealth, respect and prestige. He can sell you stuff, he is very eloquent, but full of crap. I just can't trust him. Or his party members. Like you can't really trust a drug dealer..

Kadima: (poll 25) : Center party. Unfortunately, almost as corrupt as Likud, but with a NORMAL REASONABLE PATRIOT human being as leader (Tzipi Livni). I think she REALLY cares what happens here and not just want a seat in the Knesset. That should have a massive impact, since we had jerks for PMs for over 10 years.

Yisrael Beiteinu: (poll 18) : Fascist party. Yep. He is a criminal waiting justice for 2 long because of slow courts. He wants minorities to be questioned about loyality to the state to get their citizenship.
Many will vote for this garbage of a human, just because they are sick of the weak government response to all the Arab issues we are facing (be it Gaza, Israeli arabs rioting, or Arab anti-Israeli parties which are still legal inside Isral). Many in the south, where most Gaza rockets landed will vote for him. The rockets, as you MAY know, are STILL falling there, although at a much slower rate.

Labour: (poll 14) : Left-wing party, lead by Ehud Barak. Good party overall. Not as corrupt as the others. Ehud Barak is a very intelligent man, great on security issues, but a total failure in politics. He couldn't talk to his party members before he went on camp david in his prior term.
He's a loner, and also an egomaniac who cares first about his own status, and only then even thinks about his country. I personally believe he will forgo any ideal he may have had for being a Security minister in any government, nomatter what the government will do or who will be there. Prestige..

Shas: (poll 9) : Racist religious party for people who are weak in the brain area. The support only Sfaradi jews, and infact bring more hatred in this country than many others. Pure Yuck. Don't want to continue even talking about their primitive views. (yep you wouldn't wanna be gay or atheist in their government - u'll probably b stoned to death)

Meretz: (poll 7) : Left-wing party. Once this was the sane option.
They SPEAK about values, and on how education and social rights should be, including religious freedom. The problem is their too left-wing opinions on diplomacy. They wanted us not to go into gaza, but they don't have any alternatives.. the leader and whole bunch of men are changing from elections to elections, and although their manifesto looks good, I don't think there is someone there who really understand what they originally wrote. I voted for them several times. Enough is enough.

United Torah Judaism: (poll 6) : Orthodox jews mainly. don't have too much to say about them. There are far worse religious parties (like Shas), so this would be one of the more sane options for a religious man.



The big issue on this elections will be if Tzipi can overrun Netanyahu for PM.
If not, we r fukkkkked beyond belief. If she will... we have a chance for something normal.
Also I hope people won't vote too much for Yisrael Beytenu..
 
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