Endgame in Iraq

Bozo Erectus

Master Baker
Joined
Jan 22, 2003
Messages
22,389
Reality has finally started to sink in at the Pentagon and the Whitehouse. Who knows what will be happening in Bagdhad in April, May and June of next year. Anyway, handing over power to a puppet regime but keeping troops in the country wont solve anything. They want us OUT. Would we tolerate a puppet regime in Washington, installed by foreign invaders and kept in power by them? Or would we redouble our resistance, now that our enemy is showing signs of weakness?

Timetable set for Iraq transfer

The US-led coalition in Iraq will hand over power to a transitional government by June 2004, the Iraqi Governing Council has said.


The announcement came after Iraqi leaders met the US chief administrator, Paul Bremer, in Baghdad.

Mr Bremer had earlier returned from the US, where plans for a faster handover were agreed at the White House.

The transitional body will prepare for a full sovereign Iraqi government by 2005, following a general election.

A BBC correspondent in Baghdad says the plan is a much faster process to achieving Iraqi sovereignty than the one previously laid out.

The move comes in the context of daily attacks on coalition troops, which continued on Saturday with fresh blasts in Baghdad.

Nevertheless, President George W Bush insists US soldiers will remain in Iraq until it is "free and peaceful".

Council President Jalal Talabani - speaking after the meeting with Mr Bremer - said the transitional body would be selected after consultations with "all parties" in Iraqi society.

Sunni Muslim council member Adnan Pachachi added: "The reason behind the setting up of this transitional government is to restore sovereignty, to end the occupation and to give a chance to a representative of the Iraqi people to represent Iraq."

'Iron Hammer'

One American soldier was killed and two injured by a roadside bomb in the centre of Baghdad.

An explosion was also heard in Baghdad on Saturday at about 1635 local time (1335GMT), with black smoke seen rising in the city centre.

Australian Defence Minister Robert Hill has been quoted as saying the coalition may have underestimated the desire of those loyal to the former regime to fight back.

Insurgents are now mounting about 30 attacks a day and have killed at least 160 US soldiers in Iraq since Bush declared major combat over on May 1.

US forces in Baghdad have hit back in the past few days with "Operation Iron Hammer", employing air strikes to destroy buildings they say were used by insurgents.

But more Iraqis have died in the guerrilla attacks than coalition troops - one estimate puts the toll at about 200 civilians since 1 May.

Early reaction

Under Mr Bremer's initial plan, a new constitution would have been drawn up before any transfer of sovereignty could have taken place.

But the new, speeded-up blueprint, gained positive reaction even before the announcement on Saturday.

"This is good for everyone," said council member Ahmed Chalabi, according to the New York Times.

"We will have the US forces here, but they will change from occupiers to a force that is here at the invitation of the Iraqi Government," he was quoted as saying.

Representatives of the majority Shia population also appeared pleased by the new proposal.

Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most senior Shia cleric, had issued a decree that the constitution should be written by an elected body - not the US-appointed 24 member Governing Council.

"Instead of starting with the constitutional process, it will come at the end of the road," said Adel Abdel-Mehdi of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Sciri), quoted by the Washington Post.

"We are reversing the whole process to meet the demands of all the parties," he said.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3272721.stm
 
I find the timeline of theirs unrealistic and must wonder if it is conveniently scheduled to coincide with the elections the United States will be having a few months after June.
 
Originally posted by Richard III
They used to call this approach "Vietnamization of the war."
Funny you should mention that. I just finished rereading an old book called The New Legions by Donald Duncan, a former Green Beret who served in Vietnam during the war. The parallels are amazing. This book came out in 1967, but if you substitute 'Iraq' for Vietnam', it could have been written last week about this quagmire. I plan to read some more on the Vietnam war as a way of trying to figure out the current one.

edit: I think the last 2 weeks have been this wars version of the Tet Offensive btw. This was the turning point.
 
Do. There are more parallels than most are willing to admit. I highly recommend, if you can find it, a very long and dry but worthwhile read called "Big Story," by a Post reporter about mistakes made in covering the war during Tet. Amongst other things, it gives you a real appreciation for what the media doesn't know - and I'm speaking as someone who thinks things aren't going so well.

Vietnamization was actually a successful policy, provided RSVN troops were kept in their home areas and not asked to fight somewhere else.

And Selueces, you're an awful cynic. I'm sure the election is the farthest thing from George W. Bush's mind right now; after all, he is a man of honor. ;)
 
So they want to introduce democracy faster and in the meantime they bomb a little more.

Sounds awfully logical to solve an almost unsolvable problem even faster with such delicate measures. I'm 100% positive that a population that was terrorized for decades and liberated in shock and awe is perfectly ready to embrace a system from a totally different world in no time.

Resistance is futile ...
 
The Americans aren't exactly dropping their guns and running for it though are they? The casualties the Americans are suffering are pretty trivial - and of a level that could be endured by a democratic Iraqi administration. Its prudent that the Americans accelerate the timetable to Iraqi sovereignty - the insurgents can't be dealt with until the Americans leave, emboldening them to come out of the shadows and make their bid for power.
 
What I'm wondering is how the hell Iraq can get a workable constitution that defends all ethnic groups and religions, by mid-December. Sounds like a rush job of the worst kind....

We might as well be supporting another Diem.
 
The sooner the Americans hand it all over to a sovereign Iraqi government, the more it will be the same as before.

Radical change just doesn't happen overnight, no matter how much force you put into it.
 
I think the last Americans will be fleeing Iraq from the embassy terrain in Baghdad by helicopter within a few years, then the ayatollahs will take over.
Nam all over again.
 
Wasn't the current council the "transitional" government? :confused:

I don't get it. If it takes us a year to set up the transitional government, how long will it take the permanent government to be set up? And, historically, how stable are transitional governments anyway?
 
I'm trying to be optimistic about Iraqi government. The problems (and infighting) are undeniable, but there are several factors working in favor of a nonSaddam regime taking hold. For one thing, no matter how poorly equipped or supported, there are over 100,000 Iraqi police. In addition, the Kurds are very little trouble as are the majority of citizens in the southern urban areas.

Also, the Iraqi citizenship is used to orderly affairs. No matter how evil the Baathists were, they did keep the domestic scene orderly. Once the citizens smell even a whiff of stability coming from a government, they'll likely support it.

With luck, any combination of those factors will provide the government what it needs most to last: inertia.
 
That is optimistic. My problem isn't with that, however, it's with the speed by which the Iraqi Council (most of which never shows up at meetings) is being forced to come up with a Constitution that would be the basis for the new Iraqi government.
 
Speed is definitely an issue. Momentum and inertia take time to start...

I just hope that regardless of who wins the presidential election here in the states that they continue to support Iraq and Afghanistan, otherwise, there will only be more trouble in the long run.
 
I would hope so as well. But, if Afghanistan is any indication, I have little faith in the current administration to follow through and support what needs to be done.
 
Indeed, that's why I'm pinning my hopes on the next administration.
 
Originally posted by superslug
Indeed, that's why I'm pinning my hopes on the next administration.

Well, I can only hope the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan will still be solvable in 2009.
 
I hope for the best but I've a bad feeling about this..
 
The iraqis have a long memory. They rember Bush sr calling for the Iraqis to overthrow Saddam, and then doing nothing when saddam crushed the resistance. The USA even withheld weapons from them. The USA is trying to install a puppet goverment in Iraqi. When people in south vietnam voted for the wrong people in the 60s. The Americans ignored the result. If the Iraqis vote for the wrong people i think histroy will repeat itself. Democracy is only allowed when its works in the US intrests, if not dictatorships are the peffered choice.
 
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