Erdogan: Nato isn't strong enough to stand against Turkey

[Thorgalaeg]

We should restablish all the good old empires. Somebody should put order in the colonies.

 

[Kyriakos]

I would welcome re-establishment of Byzantine Empire as in VI century A.D.
Except small parts of it... we're building bridge there...

And yet Catherine the great founded new cities there with ancient greek name, exactly planning to give those parts to the re-established byzantine empire ^^

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The RBMK design flaw is positive coefficient of reactivity, which makes reactor less stable and puts higher requirements on control systems and personnel. Using flammable material as moderator isn't a major problem, since under normal circumstances there's no contact of graphite with oxygen. And when there is such a contact (e.g. reactor innards are exposed to atmosphere), it means that catastrophic failure has already happened. In other words, flammable graphite itself didn't lead to a catastrophe, just made the already happened catastrophe more difficult to handle.

Other types of reactors also have materials which can be dangerous in case of accident, for instance zirconium which in contact with high temperature steam can generate hydrogen. At Fukushima there were several hydrogen explosions which could possibly damage reactor's outer shell. In Chernobyl, one of explosions also could be caused by hydrogen.

Well, since there is no known option to Zirconium there isn't much point in discussing whether use of it is wise. So let's take a look at this "there are other dangerous materials, so why would a FLAMMABLE material be a particular problem?

The answer is that even a hydrogen explosion that breaches all containment doesn't produce smoke, which by definition is soot particles suspended in the atmosphere, in which those suspended soot particles are radioactive. Putting materials which will become irradiated and then can subsequently be converted to airborn contaminants in a reactor is flat stupid, full stop. If there were nothing else that could serve the purpose, as is the case with Zirconium, then we would be forced to discuss whether the horrendous risk was worth it, but the fact is that there are LOTS of moderators to choose from. You already pointed out that even barring the fact that it is flammable graphite isn't a terrific choice because unlike water you don't get self regulation through thermal expansion.

It should be pointed out that your defense that "the graphite didn't cause the problem," while accurate, is irrelevant. "It just made the already happened catastrophe more difficult to handle" is a remarkable statement, since it is both a gross exaggeration and a complete understating at the same time. The actual reactor problem was bad. Bad enough to breach the containment. That happens here and there from time to time, and in itself is not a 'catastrophe.' But when you breach the containment while simultaneously creating a massive quantity of airborne radioactive material that isn't just 'more difficult to handle.' That is the creation of a catastrophe. And it was predictable the first moment some dimwit said "hey, how about we build this reactor out of a flammable material that will become activated in a neutron flux?"

 

[Commodore]

I don't at all expect US (or France; or Britain, etc) to do anything in any first part of a brief war or cis-war.

We may not outright commit troops to fight alongside you on the battlefield, but you know we'll be giving you some nice covert support. Most likely in the form of severely ramping up our support for the Kurds to keep the Turks from focusing all of their military efforts against you.

 

[Hrothbern]

@Kyriakos
I would not worry as Greece that much about this Erdogan act
The people of Turkey have more reasons to be worried.

• Turkey trade is almost fully dependent on the West (EU,US) with some export to Iraq and some import from China.
• The initiatives the past decades of Turkish industry to build up a regional position in the Near East for business and trade has not succeeded
• The Kurdish issue is as difficult as always, just like the relation with Russia
• The political/military foreign policy of Erdogan towards the Near East has failed AND they (Erdogan) did upset the US
• The economical perspective to get better and deeper economical ties with the EU has failed AND they (Erdogan) did upset the EU.
• The inflation rate is steady at a very high 10% the last two decades despite being helped by EU trade and foreign investments (in the 80ies and 90ies on average 60%, which was devastating for domestic business), and economical isolation of Turkey after sanctions would likely make inflation go up again.
• The EU companies do not need Turkey anymore as cheap labor country because Eastern Europe is tied in to the EU, and for the low end like Turkish textile etc, China is there.
• Turkey has already a trade deficit, in the past decades overcome by roughly 3% GDP growth, but that growth will collapse when sanctions would stop foreign investments and trade, plunging Turkey in massive national deficits and inflation, also because of a too big military
• The necessity for the NATO to have bases in Turkey aimed at Russia is now more of a convenience because of technological military changes.

All in all, Turkey is at economical crossroads and so far drifting on emotions towards isolation:

• The very high national pride of the ordinary people (up to the sentiments that the EU is now "the sick old man" as Turkey was labelled in WW1) will only encourage Erdogan to more sabre rattling, but will be no good for a health perspective of working together with the EU. Working together with Near East (Arab) countries failed already and was from historical Ottoman empire sentiments always a weak card.
• The deal with the EU about the refugees is a trump card, but with the Near East calming down, and the reaction time for the EU bought by that deal, of diminishing value.
• And yes... there are many Turkish people living in the EU, but will that really be a card to play by Erdogan to support Turkey ? It is more likely only more inflammable material for Erdogans sabre rattling.

The only thing Greece needs to do is to keep her head cool in the waiting game.

 

[red_elk]

The answer is that even a hydrogen explosion that breaches all containment doesn't produce smoke, which by definition is soot particles suspended in the atmosphere, in which those suspended soot particles are radioactive. Putting materials which will become irradiated and then can subsequently be converted to airborn contaminants in a reactor is flat stupid, full stop. If there were nothing else that could serve the purpose, as is the case with Zirconium, then we would be forced to discuss whether the horrendous risk was worth it, but the fact is that there are LOTS of moderators to choose from. You already pointed out that even barring the fact that it is flammable graphite isn't a terrific choice because unlike water you don't get self regulation through thermal expansion.

Do you have estimations of how much this flammable moderator contributed to radioactivity leak? Because as Fukushima showed, it can perfectly leak a lot without graphite burning. And Fukushima explosion wasn't nearly as catastrophic as Chernobyl. Thing is, I read a few reports and a book about the catastrophe (didn't read so much about Fukushima, admittedly), but nowhere I saw flammable graphite described as "fatal design flaw". INSAG report states two major design flaws of reactor, but (correct me if I'm wrong) doesn't even mention flammable graphite as a flaw.

The actual reactor problem was bad. Bad enough to breach the containment. That happens here and there from time to time, and in itself is not a 'catastrophe.'

No, it wasn't merely a breach of containment. It was explosion powerful enough to toss up plate of upper bioshield (500 tons), destroy the building and left whole reactor crack open. Such things don't happen here and there.

If you believe it was just another breach incident and only graphite fire made it worst nuclear catastrophe in history, you have absolutely wrong idea about what happened there.

 

[Kyriakos]

@Kyriakos
I would not worry as Greece that much about this Erdogan act
The people of Turkey have more reasons to be worried.

• Turkey trade is almost fully dependent on the West (EU,US) with some export to Iraq and some import from China.
• The initiatives the past decades of Turkish industry to build up a regional position in the Near East for business and trade has not succeeded
• The Kurdish issue is as difficult as always, just like the relation with Russia
• The political/military foreign policy of Erdogan towards the Near East has failed AND they (Erdogan) did upset the US
• The economical perspective to get better and deeper economical ties with the EU has failed AND they (Erdogan) did upset the EU.
• The inflation rate is steady at a very high 10% the last two decades despite being helped by EU trade and foreign investments (in the 80ies and 90ies on average 60%, which was devastating for domestic business), and economical isolation of Turkey after sanctions would likely make inflation go up again.
• The EU companies do not need Turkey anymore as cheap labor country because Eastern Europe is tied in to the EU, and for the low end like Turkish textile etc, China is there.
• Turkey has already a trade deficit, in the past decades overcome by roughly 3% GDP growth, but that growth will collapse when sanctions would stop foreign investments and trade, plunging Turkey in massive national deficits and inflation, also because of a too big military
• The necessity for the NATO to have bases in Turkey aimed at Russia is now more of a convenience because of technological military changes.

All in all, Turkey is at economical crossroads and so far drifting on emotions towards isolation:

• The very high national pride of the ordinary people (up to the sentiments that the EU is now "the sick old man" as Turkey was labelled in WW1) will only encourage Erdogan to more sabre rattling, but will be no good for a health perspective of working together with the EU. Working together with Near East (Arab) countries failed already and was from historical Ottoman empire sentiments always a weak card.
• The deal with the EU about the refugees is a trump card, but with the Near East calming down, and the reaction time for the EU bought by that deal, of diminishing value.
• And yes... there are many Turkish people living in the EU, but will that really be a card to play by Erdogan to support Turkey ? It is more likely only more inflammable material for Erdogans sabre rattling.

The only thing Greece needs to do is to keep her head cool in the waiting game.

There is zero possibility of Greece starting a war. Yet if there is some violent act (with deaths) started by Turkey, it can happen. Note that Turkey did (highly likely, though officially it was denied) down a greek helicopter in the 1996 islet incident, and so two greek pilots did die. Which was why the back-down then was ignoble, from the greek side. I think it will be extremely unlikely to avoid war now if such an act with deaths is repeated. Yet Greece will in no case be the aggressor, that is true.

 

[Hrothbern]

There is zero possibility of Greece starting a war. Yet if there is some violent act (with deaths) started by Turkey, it can happen. Note that Turkey did (highly likely, though officially it was denied) down a greek helicopter in the 1996 islet incident, and so two greek pilots did die. Which was why the back-down then was ignoble, from the greek side. I think it will be extremely unlikely to avoid war now if such an act with deaths is repeated. Yet Greece will in no case be the aggressor, that is true.

yes
And even if there are between Greece and Turkey hostilities, military actions, casualties..... even if some military gestures and moves are made by other countries
as long as Turkish troops do not really gain much territory, or do real bombings, it stays a tempest in a teakettle....
the real chess board is not military, but the international consensus and the follow up international economical actions.
The first action typical being, forced by diplomatic threats, Turkey to retreat from territorial gains if any (in exchange for a litlle bit less harsh sanctions, which fits BTW the IMF interests also).
Just remember the Yom Kippur war. Israel was not allowed to leverage the military position gained in that awfully short time, exceeding her "allowed" geopolitical position, because the international community forced an ending of that war.

So Greece only needs to play "right" enough, compared to Erdogan, on that international chessboard, the military strategy incl domestic emotions getting some leeway but in the end subordinated to that international play.

This sabre rattling of Erdogan towards Greece/NATO is a dead end withouth any perspective for Turkey.
And what will be next ?
What more failures can he engage to, feeding internal populistic sentiments to maintain his position ?
Is Erdogan going to stir up Islamic issues ?or flirt with China ? or get more athletes naturalised for the next Olympics ?

 

[Kyriakos]

^Only realistic gain is Turkey occupying a couple of tiny islets (ie those rocks with either no population, or 5 people registered as having something there). I agree that the important thing will be the follow up reaction to Turkey. Hopefully it doesn't only include expulsion from nato. We will see when/if it comes to that, though, cause while no land gain is realistic in a Greece-Turkey war, from either side itself as result of the contained war, the same isn't true for casualties (those can be a significant number even in a day).
Imo the most important factor - and the one different now from 1996 - is that Turkey has also alienated the US. That can be lethal for it.

 

[red_elk]

Looks like Turkey is going to liquidate Kurdish enclave in Afrin in coming weeks. Their advance is very slow, but steady.
Another news - Russian MOD reported that rebels prepare another provocation in Eastern Gouta, intending to blame government in chemical attack.

 

[Hrothbern]

Looks like Turkey is going to liquidate Kurdish enclave in Afrin in coming weeks. Their advance is very slow, but steady.
.

And if that really threatens to happen...
Will the Kurds not move out of Afrin, to be replaced by pro-Assad Syrian militia ?
Who are definitely far more anti-Turkey than Kurds ?

 

[Broken_Erika]

If Turkey gets into a war ad loses, Erdogan will blame their defeat on the Treacherous Gulenists, Kurds and Armenians. Then things will get real ugly....

 

[red_elk]

And if that really threatens to happen...
Will the Kurds not move out of Afrin, to be replaced by pro-Assad Syrian militia ?
Who are definitely far more anti-Turkey than Kurds ?

That was an option before, but now it seems Afrin soon will be occupied by Turkey and their allied Syrian rebels, such as these guys:

Spoiler :

Thousands of Kurds are fleeing from the region.

There were some talks between Kurds and Syria/Russia before Turkish attack, most likely the talks were about re-establishment of Syrian government control of the province. Most probably, they refused all offers and decided to fight for their independence. They received help from Syrian NDF militia and Rojava Kurds, but they have no chance to withstand against organized military.

 

[Kyriakos]

^That Abe-beard guy looks quite strange ^^

 

[Broken_Erika]

The guy at the far left looks like my cousin.

 

[red_elk]

They are salafites. Russia had lots of problems with these guys in Chechnya 15-20 years ago.

 

[Kyriakos]

The guy at the far left looks like my cousin.

Maybe you should give your far-left cousin a call!

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Do you have estimations of how much this flammable moderator contributed to radioactivity leak? Because as Fukushima showed, it can perfectly leak a lot without graphite burning. And Fukushima explosion wasn't nearly as catastrophic as Chernobyl. Thing is, I read a few reports and a book about the catastrophe (didn't read so much about Fukushima, admittedly), but nowhere I saw flammable graphite described as "fatal design flaw". INSAG report states two major design flaws of reactor, but (correct me if I'm wrong) doesn't even mention flammable graphite as a flaw.


No, it wasn't merely a breach of containment. It was explosion powerful enough to toss up plate of upper bioshield (500 tons), destroy the building and left whole reactor crack open. Such things don't happen here and there.

If you believe it was just another breach incident and only graphite fire made it worst nuclear catastrophe in history, you have absolutely wrong idea about what happened there.

At Fukushima radioactive material left the containment because the ocean came in and got it. At Chernobyl there was no ocean required because the reactor design provided the means for the radioactive material to leave the building. "Left the whole reactor crack open" happens. You fill the containment building, or what's left of it, with concrete and then pour more on top of that, end of story. You don't have miles and miles of contaminated area spreading into neighboring countries.

If you can't or won't follow that pumping radioactive soot into the atmosphere is the unique element of the Chernobyl situation then I can't lead you there, but it's definitely on you.

 

[Kyriakos]

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Tuesday that Turkey-U.S. relations was at the point of breakup, stressing that Washington should fulfil its promises.

“The people of Turkey are of a very negative opinion of the United States because it does not keep its word, it always lies.

“Our relations are at the point of breakup,” Cavusoglu said.

He said that two working groups were created in February to prevent this.

“And we set a condition, if you don’t keep your word, then we will not tolerate it any longer,’’ he said when meeting with students of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.

According to the official, one of the issues is the U.S. supplying weapons to Kurdish groups in Syria.

https://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2018/...kup-point-because-of-unfulfilled-promises-fm/

Well, US played its little game, but in the end it was discovered by Turkey. Tough going, US No one should mess with Turkey; the 6th fleet should be aware.

 

[red_elk]

At Fukushima radioactive material left the containment because the ocean came in and got it.

No, part of radioactivity was released into the atmosphere in form of aerosol, the other part leaked into the ocean with contaminated water, which was pumped through reactor to cool it.

The tsunami effect was that it took out reactor's cooling system (more precisely, reserve power generators), which ultimately caused overheating and core meltdown.

If you can't or won't follow that pumping radioactive soot into the atmosphere is the unique element of the Chernobyl situation then I can't lead you there, but it's definitely on you.

It was probably unique - Chernobyl disaster was unique in many aspects, it's just far from being the worst one.