EU expanding its 'sphere of influence,' Russia says

[Winner]

Blocking the Black Sea will be a piece of piss, once we have Turkey in the EU.

I don't want to wait until 2509

I am confident we could use Greece with the same effect.

But it's an interesting reversal of perspective; what if the EU was doing politics like Russia?

Now that's a very inspiring question - an Alternate History Challenge, perhaps?

What if the EU behaved like Russia - no moral reservations, no ideals driving its policies, no gloves... only self-interest, bribes, bullying and blackmail.

For starters, EU would be bigger - Switzerland and Norway would be forced to join in the 1990s.

 

[Reno]

At least we wouldn't be taking Russian actions towards us as passively. And hey, they have it coming with interest of at least 60 years if not more.

I am confident we could use Greece with the same effect.

Aaww, but it wouldn't be as easy as with Istanbul and the Bosporus.

 

[Dachs]

Aaww, but it wouldn't be as easy as with Istanbul and the Bosporus.

It wouldn't be that much harder either.

 

[Winner]

At least we wouldn't be taking Russian actions towards us as passively. And hey, they have it coming with interest of at least 60 years if not more.

So, first they'd be forced to give up all territories they've taken from Finland + Kola, then they'd return East Prussia to Germany. Then we'd kick them out of Caucasus region.

Sounds good, I'll write a letter to my EU commissioner

Aaww, but it wouldn't be as easy as with Istanbul and the Bosporus.

Perhaps not, but the chance that the Black Sea fleet would make it through Aegean in one piece is probably next to none And it would be so much more fun to humiliate the Ruskies this way

 

[Dachs]

Perhaps not, but the chance that the Black Sea fleet would make it through Aegean in one piece is probably next to none And it would be so much more fun to humiliate the Ruskies this way

That's also assuming that Turkey, as a member of NATO, doesn't just join outright anyway, or at the very least deny the Black Sea Fleet access through the Bosporus.

 

[Winner]

That's also assuming that Turkey, as a member of NATO, doesn't just join outright anyway, or at the very least deny the Black Sea Fleet access through the Bosporus.

Why would they want to do the dirty job for the Europeans? Besides, it would make them a target and I suspect that the Russians have never really given up hope on recovering Constantinople...

 

[plarq]

Why would they want to do the dirty job for the Europeans? Besides, it would make them a target and I suspect that the Russians have never really given up hope on recovering Constantinople...

1. Turkey doesn't like Russia and Armenia.
2. It's the Greeks who want to recover Constantinople.

 

[Winner]

1. Turkey doesn't like Russia and Armenia.
2. It's the Greeks who want to recover Constantinople.

1) So...?
2) Imperial Russia's long term goal was to secure the straits and recover Contantinople fro the Orthodoxy.

 

[Winner]

More interesting question - would the economic strangulation work? How would the Russians react? Most of their foreign trade would cease to exist, they'd have nobody to sell their resources too, their money deposited in European banks would be seized, they'd have nothing. How long could Kalingrad last with no land connection to Russia and with sea routes blockaded?

They could either start a war, or give up.

Hmmm, that's a veeery interesting question indeed

 

[Reno]

My guess is that Russia would never risk a war with a united Europe. But it is an interesting scenario to contemplate.

 

[Winner]

My guess is that Russia would never risk a war with a united Europe. But it is an interesting scenario to contemplate.

It really is, let's start a thread about it

 

[plarq]

My guess is that Russia would never risk a war with a united Europe. But it is an interesting scenario to contemplate.

But sending an ultimatum to Russia?
"Kaliningrad or War"?

Isn't it like "Danzig or War"?

 

[Reno]

But sending an ultimatum to Russia?
"Kaliningrad or War"?

Isn't it like "Danzig or War"?

With the difference that the Russians would be up against an entire continent. I doubt they'd risk everything they have, although given an enough insane nationalistic ruler in Russia you never know what will happen.

 

[Winner]

I started a new thread to discuss our hypothetical scenario, so lets end the off-topic here.

 

[Winner]

DW article:

EU's New Eastern Partnership Draws Ire From Russia

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized on Saturday the European Union's new partnership with six former Soviet states, suggesting the 27-member bloc was seeking to extend its own sphere of influence.

"We are accused of trying to have spheres of influence," Lavrov said during the annual Brussels Forum in the Belgian capital. "What is the 'Eastern Partnership'? Is it a sphere of influence, including Belarus?"

On Friday, after a two-day summit in Brussels, EU leaders approved the new partnership, which would allow the union to increase its aid to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and possibly Belarus by 600 million euros ($814 million).


"Our dream has come true, we have been able to adopt the Eastern Partnership," said Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, whose country currently holds the EU's rotating presidency.

Under the scheme, the EU is to negotiate new association agreements -- accords setting terms for cooperation with non-member states -- as reward for democratic and free-market reforms.

The plan envisages the gradual creation of a free-trade zone with the countries. Of the 600 million euros in aid, some 350 million euros will be new funds for strengthening state institutions, border control and assistance for small companies.


Giving Belarus a chance?

The EU's interest in its eastern neighborhood has surged since Russia's August invasion of Georgia. The bloc is now keen to strengthen its ties with its neighbors to counter-balance Moscow's growing assertiveness in the region.

As a gesture of goodwill towards Russia's staunch ally Belarus, EU foreign ministers on Monday extended until December the suspension of travel restrictions for the country's top government officials, including President Alexander Lukashenko,

The EU put the ban into effect in 2006 in response to human rights violations allegedly committed by Lukashenko, whose regime former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice once called "the last remaining true dictatorship in the heart of Europe."

But the bloc put the visa ban on ice in October in a bid to encourage the Belarus president to take a more pro-Western and pro-democracy course as part of a carrot-and-stick policy.


A sore spot for Russia

Lavrov, however, condemned the union's effort to draw ex-Soviet countries closer to the West as meddling into other countries' internal affairs. [this is rich - Winner]

"When my good friend Karel Schwarzenberg publicly says that if Belarus recognizes Abkhazia and South Ossetia it could forget about "Eastern Partnership", is it blackmail or is it democracy at work?"

"After those kinds of statements, we have questions," Lavrov added. "Is it about pulling countries (away) from the decisions that they are supposed to take freely?" [ ]

Russia recognized the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions following its short war in Georgia in August to widespread international condemnation. Moscow has been urging its neighbor to follow suit.

The official launch of the EU's partnership with six eastern European countries, which is backed strongly by Poland and Sweden, is set for May 7, although doubts remain about whether Lukashenko will be invited.

"That will depend on the behavior of Mr. Lukashenko and the Belarus government in the coming weeks, but Belarus should be in the 'Eastern Partnership'," Schwarzenberg said on Friday.

tt/afp/dpa/reuters

 

[Verbose]

So, first they'd be forced to give up all territories they've taken from Finland + Kola, then they'd return East Prussia to Germany. Then we'd kick them out of Caucasus region.

Sounds good, I'll write a letter to my EU commissioner

It would start with the EU handing out Finish-EU passports to every man, woman and child in Russian Karelia willing to take one. You know, to establish the utmost necessity for the EU to protect its citizens. Next we would be demanding extensive concessions to "oversee" stuff there from the Russians.

Being creative about it, one might even try doing the same with the other Ugrian groups in central Russia, Mordvins and Udmurts and whatnot, just stretching the definition of "Finn" a bit here.

In fact, Russian ethnic demographics leaves a bit of leeway for exploitation like this:
# Finno-Ugrians: 2,686,790 (1.86%)
# Germans 597,212 (0.41%)
# Roma 182,766 (0.13%) (I'm sure even you under the circumstances would be bang alongside a "EU Roma Russian Protectorate")
# Greeks 97,827 (0.07%)
# Poles 73,001 (0.05%)
# Lithuanians 45,569 (0.03%)
# Bulgarians 31,965 (0.02%)
# Latvians 28,520 (0.02%)

Another reason to get the Turks into the EU is that a "pan-Turanian" EU policy would mean more than 8% of the present Russian population would suddenly become available for the same kind of manipulation.

 

[dosed150]

It would start with the EU handing out Finish-EU passports to every man, woman and child in Russian Karelia willing to take one. You know, to establish the utmost necessity for the EU to protect its citizens. Next we would be demanding extensive concessions to "oversee" stuff there from the Russians.

Being creative about it, one might even try doing the same with the other Ugrian groups in central Russia, Mordvins and Udmurts and whatnot, just stretching the definition of "Finn" a bit here.

In fact, Russian ethnic demographics leaves a bit of leeway for exploitation like this:
# Finno-Ugrians: 2,686,790 (1.86%)
# Germans 597,212 (0.41%)
# Roma 182,766 (0.13%) (I'm sure even you under the circumstances would be bang alongside a "EU Roma Russian Protectorate")
# Greeks 97,827 (0.07%)
# Poles 73,001 (0.05%)
# Lithuanians 45,569 (0.03%)
# Bulgarians 31,965 (0.02%)
# Latvians 28,520 (0.02%)

Another reason to get the Turks into the EU is that a "pan-Turanian" EU policy would mean more than 8% of the present Russian population would suddenly become available for the same kind of manipulation.

do the finns even want karellia back its poor and russian speaking would it be worth all the necessary investment in bringing it up to finnish standards economically and the cost of switching to a bilingual government cant be cheap

 

[Winner]

It would start with the EU handing out Finish-EU passports to every man, woman and child in Russian Karelia willing to take one. You know, to establish the utmost necessity for the EU to protect its citizens. Next we would be demanding extensive concessions to "oversee" stuff there from the Russians.

Being creative about it, one might even try doing the same with the other Ugrian groups in central Russia, Mordvins and Udmurts and whatnot, just stretching the definition of "Finn" a bit here.

Sounds very evil, it would be a sort of poetic justice

Maybe we should try bribing the Russians in Kalingrad too - offer them some sort of autonomy as an EU protectorate (they would not join either Germany or Poland), if they declare their intention to free themselves of Kremlin's yoke

 

[Reno]

do the finns even want karellia back its poor and russian speaking would it be worth all the necessary investment in bringing it up to finnish standards economically and the cost of switching to a bilingual government cant be cheap

There are some people here who want it back. There are a lot of people whose grandparents come from the lost territories (my grandfather is one in my family).

But, realistically it would cost us a huge amount of money to "fix" the place so that it conform to the standards of the rest of Finland. Basically we'd have to demolish everything and build anew.

There's also the question of the large amount of people, who were moved there following World War II from various parts of the USSR, who now live there. Not many Finns want to have that large a Russian minority with Finnish citizenship.

Getting the Karelian Isthmus, Border-Karelia and Ladogan Karelia back would only be worth it to the average Finn, if the Russians vacated the area and used their own money to set everything in the area straight. And that's not happening.

Personally, all of this added in, I don't want the area back. It's simply not worth it.

Now, if we are talking about areas we could realistically have actual benefit from getting back, it would be Petsamo in Lapland. That would boost the economy of Lapland nicely (what with the access to the Arctic Ocean), and the presence of a few thousand Russians in there wouldn't matter at all.

 

[red_elk]

Then could you kindly explain where on earth did all of the three states of Estonia, Latvia and Liethunia suddenly vanish from the map of Europe from 1940 until 1991?

They became part of the USSR. You want to say, Finnish soldiers in 1939 were inspired by these events? Or you want to explain me how evil USSR was?

The area that Finland took from Russia in 1920 (Peace of Tartu) include, let's see, Petsamo (shown in the map in the article in red.) Yes, that was such a humongous lang grab.

Not too much really. They didn't manage to achieve the goal. And second time, in 1941 they failed again, so sad

As for Poland during that period? Are you forgetting who it was who attacked the Poles in the first place? Let's see, ah, the Soviets did. (Polish-Soviet War)

Do you read the articles you are posting links to? Somehow the Soviet "aggression" started from kicking out Poles from Kiev (the ancient Polish city, you know ). Would you kindly explain what they did there?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_Kiev_Offensive