#### Lily_Lancer

##### Deity

Assuming they all played only on wonders, and there's enough wonder for them to play. (Ignore all other promotions)

Assuming Goes to 11 affects 2 other Civs(So its tourism is doubled):

With Hallyu:

Promotion:

Album Cover Art--Goes to 11: Average Tourism(before disband): 48444=30 tourists

Goes to 11-- Album Cover Art: Average Tourism: 28993=17 tourists

Definitely shall pick the 1st route.

Without Hallyu:

No promotions: Average Tourism=6665=4 tourists

Start with Album Cover Art: Average Tourism=26225=16 tourists

Start with Goes to 11: Average Tourism=13329=8 tourists

Average Tourism=1/4*26225+9/44*13329+24/44*6665=12918=8 tourists, assuming all promotions appear uniformly random.

So Rock band w. Hallyu: 30 tourists in average

w.o. Hallyu: 8 tourists in average

before they disband, assuming they only play on wonders & there're enough wonders.

Code(In Python):

dicecount=[1,3,6,10,15,21,25,27,27,25,21,15,10,6,3,1]

print(np.sum(dicecount))

print(np.sum(dicecount[14:]))

alb=[0,0,1,2,3,4]

this=[-25,100,-25,150,0,200]

count=np.zeros((4,3,3,1001))

num=0

num=50*k*6.17+2187

num=50*k*10.8+8000

num*=2

count[3]

Assuming Goes to 11 affects 2 other Civs(So its tourism is doubled):

With Hallyu:

Promotion:

Album Cover Art--Goes to 11: Average Tourism(before disband): 48444=30 tourists

Goes to 11-- Album Cover Art: Average Tourism: 28993=17 tourists

Definitely shall pick the 1st route.

Without Hallyu:

No promotions: Average Tourism=6665=4 tourists

Start with Album Cover Art: Average Tourism=26225=16 tourists

Start with Goes to 11: Average Tourism=13329=8 tourists

Average Tourism=1/4*26225+9/44*13329+24/44*6665=12918=8 tourists, assuming all promotions appear uniformly random.

So Rock band w. Hallyu: 30 tourists in average

w.o. Hallyu: 8 tourists in average

before they disband, assuming they only play on wonders & there're enough wonders.

Code(In Python):

**Spoiler**

*:*

**import**numpy

**as**np

dicecount=[1,3,6,10,15,21,25,27,27,25,21,15,10,6,3,1]

print(np.sum(dicecount))

print(np.sum(dicecount[14:]))

alb=[0,0,1,2,3,4]

this=[-25,100,-25,150,0,200]

count=np.zeros((4,3,3,1001))

**for**i

**in**range(2):

**for**j

**in**range(2):

**for**k

**in**range(1001):

num=0

**if**i==0:

num=50*k*6.17+2187

**else**:

num=50*k*10.8+8000

**if**j==1:

num*=2

count[3]

*[j][k]=num*

key=12-i

prob=[np.sum(dicecount[key:])/216.0]

prob.append(np.sum(dicecount[key-w*2:])/216.0-np.sum(prob))

prob.append(1-np.sum(prob))

# print(prob)

sumthis=0

w=5-r

al=k+alb[w]

th=this[w]+k*50

th*=2

al=1000

upgrade=0

upgrade=1

sumthis+=prob[r]*(th+count[upgrade+2]

**for**k**in**range(1000,0,-1):**for**i**in**range(2):key=12-i

prob=[np.sum(dicecount[key:])/216.0]

**for**w**in**range(1,5):prob.append(np.sum(dicecount[key-w*2:])/216.0-np.sum(prob))

prob.append(1-np.sum(prob))

# print(prob)

**for**j**in**range(2):sumthis=0

**for**r**in**range(6):w=5-r

al=k+alb[w]

th=this[w]+k*50

**if**j==1:th*=2

**if**al>1000:al=1000

upgrade=0

**if**w>=4:upgrade=1

**if**w>=2:sumthis+=prob[r]*(th+count[upgrade+2]

*[j][al])*

sumthis+=prob[r]*th

print(w,2,i,j,prob[r],th,count[upgrade+2]**else**:sumthis+=prob[r]*th

**if**(k==2):print(w,2,i,j,prob[r],th,count[upgrade+2]

*[j][al])*

print(sumthis)

count[2]**if**k==2:print(sumthis)

count[2]

*[j][k]=sumthis*

key=14-b-i

prob=[np.sum(dicecount[key:])/216.0]

prob.append(np.sum(dicecount[key-w*2:])/216.0-np.sum(prob))

prob.append(1-np.sum(prob))

sumthis=0

w=5-r

al=k+alb[w]

th=this[w]+k*50

al=1000

upgrade=0

upi=0

upj=0;

upgrade=1

upi=3/(11-b)

upj=3/(11-b)*(8-b)/(10-b)

#upi=1

#upj=0

upj=3/(11-b)

#upj=1

th*=2

sumthis+=prob[r]*(th+upj*count[upgrade+b]**for**b**in**range(1,-1,-1):**for**k**in**range(1000,0,-1):**for**i**in**range(2):key=14-b-i

prob=[np.sum(dicecount[key:])/216.0]

**for**w**in**range(1,5):prob.append(np.sum(dicecount[key-w*2:])/216.0-np.sum(prob))

prob.append(1-np.sum(prob))

**for**j**in**range(2):sumthis=0

**for**r**in**range(6):w=5-r

al=k+alb[w]

th=this[w]+k*50

**if**al>1000:al=1000

upgrade=0

upi=0

upj=0;

**if**w>=4:upgrade=1

**if**i==0:upi=3/(11-b)

**if**j==0:upj=3/(11-b)*(8-b)/(10-b)

#upi=1

#upj=0

**if**(i==1**and**j==0):upj=3/(11-b)

#upj=1

**if**j==1:th*=2

**if**w>=2:sumthis+=prob[r]*(th+upj*count[upgrade+b]

*[j+upj][al]+upi*count[upgrade+b][i+upi][j][al]+(1-upi-upj)*count[upgrade+b]**[j][al])*

sumthis+=prob[r]*th

print(w, b,i,j,prob[r],th,count[upgrade+b][i+upi][j+upj][al])

print(sumthis)

count**else**:sumthis+=prob[r]*th

**if**(k==2):print(w, b,i,j,prob[r],th,count[upgrade+b][i+upi][j+upj][al])

**if**k==2:print(sumthis)

count

*[j][k]=sumthis*

print(count[:,0,0,2])

print(count[:,1,0,2])

print(count[:,0,1,2])

print(count[:,1,1,2])

print(count[:,0,0,2])

print(count[:,1,0,2])

print(count[:,0,1,2])

print(count[:,1,1,2])

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