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Final Mafia 2019 (Cold War Mafia)

Discussion in 'Mafia/NOTW' started by Montmorency, Nov 15, 2019.

  1. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Veteran of 1000 psycic wars

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    I wasn't among the last...in fact I was driving the Seon wagon pretty much all day. But that's okay. It does bear considering that anyone jumping in for the save would be suspect, and if someone had tried and failed they'd be out too. So the fact that someone was here and didn't jump for the save doesn't prove they are town.

    Which brings me to saying what I was thinking about while getting dinner.

    I know my weaknesses, and I am totally tunneled in on Snerk. Me giving my reasons and Snerk defending himself would just be tiresome beating of the poor dead horse from both sides, so I'm going to quietly withdraw. If someone points out that I'm just being daft I'm not gonna argue, but as I said about my weaknesses I'm in no position to judge their arguments either. If someone takes my side and Snerk sets out a defense maybe seeing it from the sidelines will give me a different perspective. If that happens I'll let you know.

    Somethings other than Snerk that I think merits a deeper look now that we know where Seon actually stood...that exchange around post 250 that set me on "Seon or bust" was started by Tak, and then he backed off. He gave me a good explanation when I asked him why...good enough at the time anyway...but someone with fresher eyes revisiting that would be a good thing. Obviously the other characters that jumped off the Seon wagon besides Snerk need examining too.

    Those who were in for the kill maybe can't be just assumed town, but I'm mostly willing. If Visor was playing a deep feint with that last minute switch to kill a mafia mate he's way too deep for me and we should just concede. And despite me being loud and persistent and Raskol being gracious enough to commend my effort the truth is I was pretty much just parroting arguments she had made early on so I think her unwavering Seon vote can be taken at face value. Note that I have nothing to say about Zelda here.

    So, sleep well, if with one eye open, and let us hope that USA#1 comes through for us again.
     
  2. Omega124

    Omega124 Challenging Fate

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    I missed the dramatic showdown at the end again, that's a big oof. But we got one of the scum, and that's fantastic.

    Two things that stuck out from me from the events going on last night:

    1. Mansai flinched really hard when the heat was getting at him. The flinching almost didn't work out for him, but at the very end visor switched to seon, saving him (and syn incidentally enough) and dooming seon. Obviously, this ended up being a good play, because seon actually was scum and thus we got one of them.

    I want to write down my thoughts about the situation: it is possible that all three could have been scum, or that only seon in the tie was scum. Visor himself theoretically could have been scum, a possibility I'll get out of the way to say I think is incredibly unlikely but it would be remiss not to mention since it throws the dynamic off completely if true. I think the only configuration we can definitely rule out is visor and seon alone being scum, because there was really no reason in that scenerio for visor to bus seon.

    Syn got voted on hard early on, for actions that he did the prior day that was already discussed to death. I think that was a legitimate vote, and I don't really have much to say on people who stuck to their guns with it. I'll be frank; I mostly zoned out of the thread because I don't think much would have convinced me to vote otherwise, although I even mentioned I thought a seon-syn linkage is possible during the day. Mansai flinched hard, which I think is what caused the dogpile against him. Still, I'm sympathetic to trying to do everything to avoid the lynch; people say I tend to flinch hard when I'm voted on in the past.

    I'm more interested, however, in the people who voted Mansai. Knowing that Syn was a high priority target for the town, and that seon actually 100% was scum, why were people trying to bus him? I think its very much possible he got bused to spread FUD, in the hopes to save at least Seon, if not also Syn. The fact they didn't do it with Syn, though, makes me even more suspicious that he is most likely scum. After all, that would explain why it suddenly became a three person race rather than a two person race.

    As for Visor, I'm going to say he is confirmed town for me. There was very little reason for him to cast the deciding vote to kill a goon, if he was actually a scum. There is one scenario that comes to mind that might justify it: if he is scum, and one of the other two between mansai and syn is scum, then maybe he made the decision to kill the less active goon as a way to boost his credibility and, if he's the USSR, get closer to his own kills. However, that would require so much coincidence to line up properly, not to mention that I just don't think intentional scum on scum kills to be all that likely to begin with (there's rarely good reason to do it).

    I still think syn is supicious, and I'm probably going to vote for him D3.

    2. I want to raise an alternative hypothesis for why there was no kill on N1: seon just never sent a kill order. I'm being 100% serious here. I know him enough to know that he was really distracted/busy the past few days, and that his heart really wasn't in the game. Since he is confirmed to be East Germany now, I think its actually possible that he just literally forgot to send his scum orders, and then North Korea was roleblocked. Not that it changes much in practice, except it indicates that possibly scum communication is bad in this game.
     
  3. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Veteran of 1000 psycic wars

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    Omega...

     
  4. pzelda

    pzelda Warlord

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    Hey, what a good morning!
    I don't really like Johanna's reaction to the lynch, immediately looking for bussers. I'm kind of sticking to my scum lean on her for now. There's not much of a case to build for her lack of solving posts, tho.
    Also, Omega's wall is notable for several reasons.
    1)It starts with commentary mode and it's more than flowery.
    2)It is rying to sell us both Manasi and Syn as wolves. We would be very lucky to have votes on all three wolves
    3)It creates a narrative about n1 actions based on angle-shooting.
    4)The wall doesn't mention Johanna at all or I missed it.
    I kind of see a possibility of this wolf team (Seon, Johanna, Omega), but there are several other players I can't call town.

    Rask's lock town for spotting the slip and making the case.
    Visor's ride or die town for me for his jumping around and landing on Seon.
    Tim keeps on posting solid comments and he's rather consistently towny.
    Tak had the best d1 and I'm keeping him in my towncore for now.

    Manasi looks decent for being Seon's wagon of choice..

    The rest is pending.
     
  5. pzelda

    pzelda Warlord

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    As for the rest of players, I don't think I interacted with them or were alerted by their interactions a lot. Some of them are almost under my radar.

    Mary - A lot of people suspected her and I find some of her early posts stiff, but I think that she stepped it up yesterday with some of her reads. I need to interact with her more to ensure myself. For now it's V tier.

    Snerk - He made a good early impression but someo his stuff yesterday felt sketchy as he was suggesting things without saying them out loud. I'm waiting for him to show up and come up with some conclusions.

    Syn - They clearly are a low impact player with their posts not being very good or solvy. Their refusal to self-press is kind of pure.

    Manasi - I got this gut feeling Manasi is a good girl, but I can't really sell others on it as it's not a proper read. Actual posts are kind of lackluster content-wise.

    Tiers (for now)
    VVV - Rask, Visor, Tim
    VV - Tak
    V - Manasi, Mary, Syn
    Null - Snerk
    W - Omega
    WW - JohannaK
    WWW
     
  6. Omega124

    Omega124 Challenging Fate

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    Ah yes, group all the three IOTers, and the only three IOTers in this current game, together into a scum team. That doesn't sound like an awfully convenient scum pairing, totally not at all kneejerk. I really applaud your detective skills. /S

    The main reason I don't mention Joan is because Joan, as a specific player, doesn't make that much of an impact to me. I do talk about trends of the way some people voted, but he's a bit of a background player in my analysis. Which, fair enough, you could make an argument that alone is scummy, but I think there's better avenues of attack. Not going to defend him either; I'd vote against him if the town wasn't putting forward stronger canidates.

    I'm not actually trying to sell anything other than I think Visor is town. I still am very suspicious of syn, but that suspicion predates D2. It's called "exploring every avenue", trying to see why the mafia may have not tried to save Seon, because, like Snerk said, that was an avoidable lynch easily.

    If you don't like my writing style when making posts, then fair enough, but that's honestly one of the worst arguments I heard for calling someone scum. That's just downright bad faith arguing. I'm not diginfying that line of logic any further.
     
  7. pzelda

    pzelda Warlord

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    Ofc, Bussing is not 100% out of window, but I will only start further thinking about it if flips suggest it. All people ending o Seon are my top towns and seeing one of them as a bussing wolf is difficult for me now.
    That's why I think am easier explanation like wolves failing to prevent us from lynching him by being already on other wagons and too afraid to pile up on a single counter-wagon is more likely.
     
  8. Omega124

    Omega124 Challenging Fate

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    Also I just want to apologise for getting Manasi's name and gender wrong in my last big post. That wasn't cool of me; I'll make sure to keep that in mind in the future

    I'm pretty certain Joan/Johanna uses he though. Or, at the very least, should have corrected me on Discord in any point in the last few years. :p
     
  9. pzelda

    pzelda Warlord

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    Omega,
    I don't know what an IOTer means, but if it's some kind of low hanging fruit I don't see you or Johanna as such. Also, I usually don't lock my reads and always reevaluate, if something looks off. Also, Manasi, Syn, Seon pack isn't any better from this pov.

    I played with Johanna before and her being a background player is problematic and kind of easy to replicate as wolf, because it's difficult to find any agenda in her low impact posts. I don't think that any of her actions indicated town alignment, tho.
    I guess you mean Manasi and Syn as stronger candidates, but I personally find them having more going for them.
    Can you update me on Syn later?

    I think this post was way better than the previous one (except for frequent use of fair enough), which triggered me with commentary mode in the second paragraph.
     
  10. pzelda

    pzelda Warlord

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    Thanks for telling me this. I noticed some peeps used he, when referencing to Johanna, but it being a strictly female name, I stocked to she. I'm sorry for that misgendering.
     
  11. RRRaskolnikov

    RRRaskolnikov Goldfish

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    Getting gender seems as hard as getting alignment in this game :lol: for instance:

    @Timsup2nothin : I repeat, I am a dude.

    ---

    I'll have a closer look at Seon's interactions and report before EON. Just in case I can't post afterward :hide:
     
  12. Snerk

    Snerk Smeghead

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    Tim: I could write a paper on Tim at this point. But I'll list my main thoughts on him instead. Tinfoiling me hard this entire game. And you're way off the mark here. Started with a critique of how some people parroting my vote and that somehow being my fault. Then a bunch of weird stuff on how I didn't vote for for my main suspects, which was also nonsense. Then an extreme tunneling on the fact that I left the Seon wagon while refusing to offer any explanation on how my early scum lean on Seon and sequential vote on him make any sense whatsoever as mafia in the first place. Basically flinging ungrounded accusation at me hoping that something would stick. I'm chalking it up to town paranoia. I've had a town lean on Tim this entire game and I still do.

    Tak: Hasn't quite followed up a good D1. Jumped with me on the Jo wagon which I'll admit wasn't necessarily a great look, though we still don't know. Made a post about manasi that pinged me. Opportunistically jumped on Tim's tinfoiling of me. Though Tak never needs much of an excuse to jump the gun on my credentials.

    Manasi: Bad reaction to pressure last night. Did not at all live up to her "I'll be active later" stuff. Still a lynch candidate IMO.

    Jo: Similar to Omega, staying really low only to show up after the dust settles with some musings. First player to suspect bussing. Now that's possible but the players voting for the mafia are usually town and the mafia will benefit from doubt being casted on the motivations behind scumwagons.

    pzelda: perhaps my nullest of players this game but that Seon vote is a good look, no doubt.

    Mary: Made some better content and is hovering in nullmansland. Vouching so hard for Syn was perhaps a little weird. Though meta stuff can perhaps somewhat explain it.

    Omega: Again staying quiet when stuff goes down just to suddenly showing up post EOD for some hindsight reflections. Even tinfoil-tim now acknowledges it's shadyness. One of my scum leans this game.

    Syn: Weaseled his way out of a lynch without doing much. I still don't think he's mafia though.

    Ras: Occam's razor says he's town and he's not getting lynched anytime soon unless scanned otherwise by cop.

    Visor: Pushing hard for a Jo lynch out of nowhere after the manasi wagon really gained momentum. Then suddenly abandoning that for a Seon vote. Get's solid town credentials for the tie breaker after Seon's flip obviously.
     
  13. Omega124

    Omega124 Challenging Fate

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    Honestly, given my sleep pattern, around/post eod is simply when I wake up/start posting. I sleep during the day, I'm up during the evening. That's exactly what happened in Day 2. Made my initial comments, went do bed, woke up, saw the discourse didn't change much since I voted so I went along with my day, went to bed, woke up, did some things with family, when I was on my PC again EOD had already happened. Making my thoughts was actually one of the first things I did when I had the chance to do so.
     
  14. Omega124

    Omega124 Challenging Fate

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    About 8 pages of this thread, comprising the majority of day 2, were made in about the timeframe of the last 4 irl hours of the 48 hour period. I wasn't even aware of that conversation until after it happened because I was sleeping or eating. I can't be online 24 hours of the day.

    Make your arguments earlier if you want to call me out for waiting until a time I can actually respond to them.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2019
  15. JohannaK

    JohannaK Careless Whisperer

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    I only really suspect Visor of bussing, because he's such a good player I think he could pull it off, really. Also obviously because he was trying so hard to lynch me out of the blue and for no discernible reason whatsoever. Even if he later justified himself, all the dilly-dallying about flimsically switching votes back and forth is hardly a good look. It is something I absolutely despise even when it isnt done to me. He knows better than 'flipping coins'.
     
  16. JohannaK

    JohannaK Careless Whisperer

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    On the matter of gender and pronouns, just go with whatever feels right.
     
  17. Snerk

    Snerk Smeghead

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    I agree that Visor was flipfloppy as hell last night and that a bussing sure would have been tempting but not town leaning him at this point is way too tinfoily no?
     
  18. Visorslash

    Visorslash Deity

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    maybe you should be more villagery joan, and i wouldnt have to flip flop :p
     
  19. Visorslash

    Visorslash Deity

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    Not sure anyone is doing so but I wouldn't clear soon for pushing manasi, at that point he knows he's dead meat or needs credit so bussing manasi there is entirely plausible.

    Whether it's likely, for you fellas to decide
     
  20. Visorslash

    Visorslash Deity

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    Er, wouldn't clear manasi for soon pushing on her

    I can English I swear
     

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