#### anarres

##### anarchist revolutionary

**Edit: I will always have the latest version linked in to the first post so you don't have to go looking through the thread for it...**

Version 1.5

**Please note that Version 1.5 contains a significant change to the distance formula, you should update to this version straight away.**Version 1.5

*'Distance' dialog:*

Change list:

- Changed distance formula from:

to:

**max(x,y) + 0.5*min(x,y)**

1.4 (22nd June):

- Added a 'Minimum Garrison' field.

- Made the whole form dynamic. If all fields have valid values the calculations will be done automatically. If any fields are invalid 'n/a' is displayed, click 'Calculate' to see which one.

- Culture numbers now can be decimals instead of just whole numbers, this is so you can enter a ratio in like 2.5 : 1.

- Distance dialog box now keeps it's data when you close and re-open it.

1.3 (15th May)

- fixed some annoying bugs

1.2 (15th May)

- added new form to allow better entry of distance

- changed icon

1.1 (14th May)

- Added error checking

- Added cumalative probability of flip

1.0 (13th May)

- First version

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Taken from the FAQ:

How many units do i need to suprpess a culture flip?

- the full formula (this is from Sorenson, who is responsible for this programming):

P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/D

where:

P = probability that it will flip this turn

F = # foreignors, with resistors counting double

T = # working tiles under foreign control (out of the max of 21, no matter what the cultural boundaries are atm)

Cc = 2 if foreign civ has more local culture than you, 1 otherwise

H = .5 for WLTKD, 2 for disorder, 1 otherwise

Cte = Total culture of the foreign civ

Cty = Total culture of your civ

G = # garrison units

D = factor based on relative distance to capitals

Now reorganizing this gives the required garrison as:

G = (F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty)

As you can see there is a nice set of extra factors there. Now when you take a city Cc is likely to be 2 for a long while. And then there is the culture ratio. And this is a true ratio so it could be 1.1:1, 2:1, 5:1 depending on how much culture each of you has.

- According to this, the factor D is a crucial scaling variable that will enable us to work out the exact chance of a culture flip, since all other factors are known. 'D' should really be written 'n*d', where 'd' is the actual ratio of distance to capitals, and 'n' is the scaling factor.

P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/n*d

My ultimate goal is to produce a 'Flip Calculator', an in-game tool that will allow you to select a city and give you the chance of it flipping to each civ.

The exact culture score of an opponent is a slight spoiler, as is the existing culture of a city you capture, so in honesty a 'Flip Calculator' would not be 'pure' (usable in GOTM and tourney) if it gained this information in game. You could still have a manual entry for these which would allow a non-spoiler version, and you could estimate the relative culture ratio fairly accurately.

**Does anyone know what the value of 'n' is?**If not I will run some scenarios to determine it, it shouldn't be difficult, just a little time consuming.

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