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football thread No11

Discussion in 'Sports Talk' started by Carras Dad, Feb 26, 2013.

  1. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Warlord

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    Yes, I was asking about the stadium, which was awful back then, but that wasn't
    the main point of my argument against why it was a hopeless task a present.
    (And it was >>20 years ago, about 3 years after Arwon won the Melbourne Cup.)

    None of the soccer issues are specific to Canberra, but they make it harder to
    find the money there. Prior history of the sport there and nebulous estimates of
    revenue streams count against them.

    In a few years Canberra will have the (permanent) population to make it
    feasible; 30 odd years ago, when there were far fewer people and a much higher
    proportion of temporary residents, it was ridiculous.
     
  2. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Eh, we've got a bigger population than Newcastle and would have a bigger economy than them, Tasmania, Geelong or the Gold Coast.
     
  3. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Warlord

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    And yet that still isn't enough.

    It's not the absolute number, but the people who live there that want it badly
    enough and are willing to pay, attend often, and not treat it as a one-off
    "Let's have a look at this soccer thing next Saturday".
     
  4. Arwon

    Arwon

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    You've lost me. Why do you think Canberra's population is quantifiably different to other comparably sized regions in terms of proclivity towards sport attendance?
     
  5. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    I have no idea if this is the case for Canberra, but many people only actively support one or two clubs. Toulouse is one of the largest cities in France, yet it can't fill its football stadium on weekends because people there are more interested in rugby. LA doesn't field an NFL team because the attendance wasn't enough the last time they tried (people prefer baseball and basketball there). Maybe most people in Canberra already have their n°1 sports team ?
     
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  6. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Warlord

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    Education levels, public service numbers, and a younger population count against
    sports attendances compared to other cities. Not over-whelming numbers, but they
    don't help attendances.

    Importing "quality" players from overseas might help in the short term, but not
    long-term. My guess: home-grown players will build a more sustained following in
    Canberra. Without a team in place there though, it's not going to be easy.

    Dig a canal to Boatman's Bay and declare some part of Canberra a port. Name the
    team something like, I dunno, Port Political Power? ;P
     
  7. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Not much of that is correct.

    Firstly, some population stats. The median age in the ACT is 34.7, which is a whopping entire year younger than Melbourne, so there's not really much difference in age profile (again, Canberra has changed in the decades since you knew anything about it). It's difficult to be precise but Canberra also probably doesn't have a higher proportion of younger adults than Sydney or Melbourne. 39% of Sydney is aged 20 to 39, 25% of the ACT is aged 20 to 34.

    But even then, spectator sport attendance rates are higher for younger people. They're above 50% for people under the age of 35 and those rates drop off above the age of 35, so it isn't true that older people attend sport more. Younger people do.

    upload_2018-7-4_23-40-56.png

    Sport attendance rates in the ACT (49%) are also substantially higher than in the state capitals (42%), as well as the rest of each state (47%).

    It's also exactly wrong that higher education levels and public service employment are associated with lower rates of sport attendance. It's the reverse, and in fact this also explains the ACT's higher rates of sporting attendance compared to the rest of the country. People on higher incomes attend sport in higher rates (58% in the top income quintile, steadily down to 28% in the lowest), given that the ACT has higher incomes than the rest of the country.

    For education, certificate degrees are associated with the highest attendance, and the ACT is underrepresented there. But after that is graduate and bachelor level degrees, which have higher sport attendance rates than people with year 12 or below. Even the post-docs have higher sport attendance rates than people who stopped education after Year 10.

    upload_2018-7-4_23-59-32.png

    Also, in terms of talent, Capital Football has 30 000 registered players, which compares reasonably well with the Northern NSW federation's 60 000, South Australia's 55 000, Western Australia's 44 000. We've produced our share of internationals, of course.

    As for local appeal of "home grown" products, you're overestimating that as an attraction or an obstacle here. We're not really parochial in that sense of preferring locals. We're not uncouth Queenslanders or Tasmanians!

    Rather, as a city of interstate migrants, we instead tend to claim everyone as ours. We mostly moved here and nobody has roots past a generation or two, so anyone who moves here reflects exactly who we are. So, honestly anyone who went through the AIS is "home grown"! Most Boomers basketballers? AIS players and therefore Canberra's own. Daniel Arzani, who lived in Canberra from age 15? Canberran! Tom Rogic? OK he actually was born and grew up here so that's cheating. Also? Jackie Chan is a secret Canberran.

    But yeah, nobody has a problem with the Raiders being held up by Englishmen and Kiwis, and the Brumbies have made an artform of naturalising foreigners into Wallabies.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2018
  8. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Warlord

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    Many thanks for disabusing me of my myths, correcting my mistakes and hunting
    down ABS data.

    BTW, I worked for the AIS during 2011-2015, so I'm not going on impressions
    from 30+ years ago when I lived there. Rowing is not a close cousin to soccer
    though!

    No, it is a statistic, it doesn't explain why the attendance is higher. It could
    be lack of other entertainment, among many other possibilities. (That's an example
    not a fact I'm promoting!)

    Also, higher sport attendance among youngsters is too coarse a stat.
    I am not disputing what you said with regard to that, but I'd like to see more
    details about what they attend, e.g. rugby vs AFL vs basketball vs cricket.
    Attendances at sporadic high-profile events (one or two AFL/Cricket matches at
    Manuka) could distort the stats too.
     
  9. Arwon

    Arwon

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    There was one AFL game in 2009-10, a Swans v Dogs game which likely had a fair number of travelling Swans fans. There wasn't any major cricket at Manuka between 2008 and 2013. The only other international event was a Union test vs Fiji which got 15k.

    In terms of crowd demographics, soccer crowds are the youngest and most male of the major sports. 34% of soccer crowds are men under 35, vs 23% to 26% for the other football codes.

    For all the football codes, attendance rates are higher among younger people, but soccer is the youngest with 53% of the crowds being under 35 compared to 40% for Union and Aussie Rules and 46% for league and cricket. If Canberra is a younger city, it should be friendlier to soccer (and basketball, apparently) than other sports.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2018
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  10. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Warlord

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    Thanks again. Not really that relevant if distorted by flocks of blow-ins.

    Late edits when I found time...

    Statements like this are just puffery...
    "We have a number of world-renowned football professionals backing the bid. These advisors and professionals have all personally committed to move to work for the club when we get a licence."

    Why should that carry any real weight in the argument for a club? They can walk
    away whenever they like.

    Same with the promises of start-up millions by cashed-up individuals who might
    go broke themselves at any time. Political parties promising millions in support
    can't be trusted either: they can rescind or cut short promises with the numbers
    in the ACT Assembly. And their long-term future is hardly guaranteed.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2018
  11. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    Always remember that zero is a number.
     
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  12. Arwon

    Arwon

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    You know every bid is like that, right? Only difference is they'll give it to the cashed up individuals in Sydney and Melbourne instead.
     
  13. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Warlord

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    All are like that? Big claim. I'll take you as someone who is just acknowledging
    commercial reality and not one who advocates the distorted bidding process. :)

    I suspect that Canberra will get up, but you can see the difficulty regulators,
    decision makers and others have in trying to winnow out puffery and outright
    exaggeration. And if FIFA are somewhere nearby then it's no surprise they are
    even more suspicious of any claims.

    The biggest crooks are more likely to come from Sydney or Melbourne so if FIFA
    have any say in awarding the new teams, Canberra's odds lengthen.

    But it probably doesn't matter to diehards whether the award is made on merit or
    not, or if it is sustainable, or if it is made transparently and not corrupt, as
    long as they get to thump the drum for their tribe.
     
  14. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    More on third-best Ronaldo: Real Madrid are un-/semi-/quasi-officially going to officially lower the ludicrous €1,000,000,000 price tag.
     
  15. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Warlord

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    Yes, zero is the number of people who are committed to the bid and face some
    form of financial sanction if they break their promise.
    The financial numbers are also imaginary, so it's complex. ;)
     
  16. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    No, Gigi, no! NOT PSG!
     
  17. Sofista

    Sofista card-carrying

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    C'mon, it will be like these last years with Juve for him: domestic domination interspersed with trips to the Champions.

    (More seriously: if he's feeling good and wants to play still, why not? Unless PSG gets someone like Courtois, he's going to be good for them).
     
  18. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    It's slightly annoying because Areola was considered the absolute n°1, and didn't disappoint last year. The club spent a lot of years grooming him, and if he becomes a sub again he'll probably decide to leave.
     
  19. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    Somebody like Gigi needs to go to a club with style.

    btw, Pastore to Roma… hmmm, nice move. It's a pity that third-best Ronaldo will almost certainly ensure that Juventus win a few more scudetti in a row.
     
  20. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    It's official, Juventus are to pay €100,000,000 to Real Madrid for 3rd-best Ronaldo's transfer, then €30,000,000 a year to the star himself for four years and the same amount in tax to the italian state, so it's €340,000,000 for four years of 3rd-best Ronaldo-ness.

    Meanwhile, Manchester Citeh buy Riyad Mahrez for sixty million!
     

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