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French presidential election 2017

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by AdrienIer, Nov 20, 2016.

  1. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    They :
    -make news reports
    -organize the MP's agenda
    -act as advisors
    -represent the MP at the local HQ when he/she is in Paris for a vote (for several hours a day)
    -actually write the legislation

    And I'm probably forgetting some. Most parliamentary assistants are underpaid and overworked (especially these past years, our parliament has passed more laws since 2012 than in any previous 5 year period).

    This campaign is becoming weirder everyday. It's just been announced that, for the first time in french history, there will be a debate prior to the first round between the 5 main candidates (on march the 20th).
     
  2. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

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    If you bought Fillon then like I did, you could've made an easy 50%. I didn't buy very much though..
     
  3. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    All of those things are extremely hard to quantify, can be done for home, and are strictly speaking not necessary. You could sit in your home all day reading the Financial Times and say you're using the information to "advise" the MP. As for organizing the agenda, there are apps for that, and I'm sure they have private secretaries anyway.

    So it's a muddy role. I would rather give the MPs a fixed stipend and let them spend it as they want it (if they feel like they need an assistant, they hire them and pay for it themselves). And I very much doubt Fillon will be convicted, exactly because it's such a muddy role. She can always argue she worked from home or whatever.
     
  4. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    I find it disturbing that people are paying attention to betting odds as if that were the important thing in an election!

    Truly this is the time of universal venality.
     
  5. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    When you do these things from home you usually have emails to show as proof that you were doing something.

    The PNF announced they they were not considering dropping charges. I doubt that Fillon will get out of that mess easily.
     
  6. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Meanwhile, in Azerbaizan, the president just made his wife the vice-president :lol:
     
  7. HannibalBarka

    HannibalBarka We are Free

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    First remark: the issue with Fillon is not that he hired his wife (and kids) because that is fully his right and is done by about a quarter of MP. What is an issue in his case is about if his wife was truly doing the job she was paid for. If she wasn't than that is not OK in french law as it is considered "travail fictif" (fictuous job) and can be qualified as "abus de bien sociaux" (misusing social assets) and /or "détournement de fonds publics" (misuse of "State" money"). Even in the private sector the Boss can't hire some one and pay him knowing that he won't do his job as the "company" money is not at the disposal of the boss. Penelope Fillon has actually an issue of that kind with a private newspaper as well. The judges are therefore fully in their right in this affair.
    Second, how the affair blew up is the guess of everyone. Most certainly someone who knew did send the information to Canard Enchainé (which is very common in France). the person is maybe from the left or the right as Fillon has enemies on both sides. Dati is maybe behind this as she really hates him especially after he has chosen her arch enemy NKM to replace him in his Paris circoncription for the Parliament (a golden circoncription for the right) just a couple of days before the affair. It's maybe a pro-Macron guy as well as weakening Fillon opens a boulevard to Macron. It's maybe a guy from the left more linked to the current Gvt. What is also a bit bizarre is why did the affair came out of the Right Primaire and not before? Maybe because Fillon was really behind in the polls during the Primaire and so no body really cared.
    Now I don't think the Judges are to be blamed about why didn't they went after Fillon earlier because no body knew .
     
    AdrienIer likes this.
  8. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

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    The oddsmakers often have better understanding of what's going to happen than the pundits. If you believed the latter 2 weeks ago, Fillon was completely dead in the water. Now he's polling better than Macron.

    The state of geopolitics is a joke anyway. Why not entertain yourself and try to make some profit if you're going to follow it at all.
     
  9. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    If it was someone on the Right or someone wishing to harm Fillon specifically they would have leaked it before or during the primary. Right now this is a complete disaster for the whole Right, not just for Fillon. So this is a desperate gamble to save the PS from electoral cataclysm, which they richly deserve after this quinquennat.
     
  10. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    Given the lack of support from a lot of socialists for Hamon I doubt it. It could be from Macron (who gains the most from it), from the FN, or from the people on the right who hate Fillon (Dati is not impossible, and she has nothing to lose from it). But given the lack of opportunistic attacks from any of them I doubt it's directly linked to a candidate.
    There's also the Hollande hypothesis, where despite not having a horse in the race he decided to prove to himself that he still matters.
     
  11. Mise

    Mise isle of lucy

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    I mean, he shouldn't have paid his wife for doing nothing. It's a scandal of his own making. You'd hope he'd take some sort of personal responsibility for the situation and fall on this sword; at least then he can return to politics later on, if/when his name is cleared.
     
  12. GoodSarmatian

    GoodSarmatian Blackpilled Idealist

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    Yeah, to strategically time a revelation about corruption could be classified as a dirty political trick, but it is a trick that can only work on the corrupt.
     
  13. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

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    Falling on his sword would be a whole lot easier before or during the primary, when indeed he would be the only one affected. The opposition would choose Juppé and he would be the frank favorite to win the general election. Now it would mean destroying the chances of his party and ensuring that people who worked on the unsuccessful (to put it mildly) Hollande administration continue to run France.

    Indeed, but right now we have no definite proof that he's indeed guilty. I mean, the French left-wing press already decided he's guilty, but the case hasn't even been investigated yet, much less tried. All we have so far is a journalistic hit-piece.
     
  14. HannibalBarka

    HannibalBarka We are Free

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    French Left is out of the race on this election: they are the outgoing majority with no clear successes to say the least and they are being eaten both by Melonchon and Macron. Hamon will have 15% in best case scenario. The clear winner of the Penelope-gate is Macron and that is why I think that's from where the phone call to Canard came. Fillon also have many enemies in his own Party, especially because after his clear win of the Primary, he was too confident and treated many of the "losers" badly: Wauquiez wants him dead, Dati wants him dead, Guaino wants him dead to name just 3. The first two at least would prefer to see him lose if at the cost of having a Macron become president. Wauquiez is already looking to 2022 election and knows that it's easier to win if the Right is not the outgoing majority. A bit like what Chirac did against D'Estaing in 1981 ;-)
     
  15. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

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    Bayrou just endorsed Macron. This is pretty big - if he had run Macron was probably all but sunk barring another scandal from an opponent.
     
  16. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

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    Actually that's not what the polls were saying. Macron was neck and neck with Fillon with or without Bayrou, although Bayrou's support will probably help him.
     
  17. Cheetah

    Cheetah Chieftain

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    Bayrou?

    I like this guy!
     
  18. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    So what? History is filled with politicians from one party having as first priority to destroy a rival within the party. They play for a longer run that the next election, or can see some way of advancing they cause (often but not necessarily their career)

    Example: what's happening in Italy now.

    It seems to me, at least, that Melenchon is the relevant part of french left in this election. Can't find much real difference between Hamon and Macron except for the basic income thing (a bad idea anyway) and the drugs thing. The rest has little impact.
     
  19. Vahnstad

    Vahnstad Chieftain

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    what is the difference between Hamon and melenchon? I like Hamon, i support him but I also see Melenchon as favorable. I have doubts about Emmanuel Macron, although i would support him if he made it to the second round. I absolutely don't like Fillon and would even support Le Pen in case of a match-up in the second round.
     
  20. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    Hamon supports the EU, which means nothing will change from the current status quo. He says he wants a different Europe, but that beast has too much inertia, too many interests set up, too many laws and treaties shielding the current situation against any big change of course. It must be thrown out wholesale and replaced with something new, if anything is to change. Hamon is four more years of Hollande, with some token gestures to "leftist" causes, of which the only one possible with some impact may be decriminalizing drugs.

    Melenchon already understands what the Hollande experience, the Greek experience more strikingly, the Italian experience, the approval of CETA, etc, the Renzis and Varoufakis, have all shown: the EU will not change course.

    The situation of ongoing "debt crisis" is exactly what the people that set policy in the EU want to lock Europe into forever. They don't want to "solve" it, they want to make it last forever. This is not a cabal by a group of individuals, but the natural agreement over shared interests among a group of people in the same position, the kind of thing even old Adam Smith commented on hundreds of years ago. The reason is that the higher the debt, the higher the wealth amassed by the "owner class" in out finantialised capitalist system. Financial wealth is made up of claims upon other people, that is what a debt is: an obligation owed to the creditor, the wealthy owner of the debt. That gives the creditors power over the debtors, in our market-oriented societies: for example, fail to pay the rent and you'll have to more into worst housing, or become homeless, though creditors much rather make only a few homeless as an example and keep all the rest in fear. The continued creation of new financial assets is driving up the prices of property, rents and some essential services in every big city worldwide, and pushing the common citizens into greater economic insecurity. With that comes fear. And if things go well for the creditors, subservience.
    The bankers, the managers, the "investors" who control "the markets" that most of our european politicians worship and claim as justification for their every unpopular action, all thrive on the accumulation of further debt. The greater the debt stock in existence, the greater their power and their ability to dictate public policy, and intimidate the scared citizens desperately hanging on to their habitual standard of living to agree to these policy changes. "Flexible labour" as a solution for unemployment, for example. "Market rents" as a solution for housing shortages. Retirement accounts as a replacement for social security. Every one of these moves further inflates the debt and the financial assets, and further weakens the economic position of the majority of the population.

    It is no accident that the "social democrat" candidate in Germany is now talking about "european bonds" as a "solution" to the public debt crisis. That will be yet another way to keep inflating the volume of financial assets in existence, to increase the wealth of its owners, the power of its managers. The common citizens are supposed to be kept "in debt" to these, obedient subjects to them. The more crushing the debt, the more obedient they can be made. Property bubbles will continue to be inflated, and so will living expenses for everyone, with greater recourse to debt to finance stagnant incomes. A vicious cycle. Except if they say enough is enough and throw out the rules of the game. Democracy and elections, what a problem that is! The end game of this will either be the election of a "radical" and "populist" that breaks the power of finance. Or revolution and war ater on. But those on top now expect the game to last long enough past their deaths before reaching rupture point. Or at least they try to make it so. "Class war", former generations called this...

    To change the rules of the game that empower finance against the rest of society in internal politics in a member state of the EU, that state must leave it - subject to blackmail, destabilization and retaliation, which scared the greeks and even the italians. Or put an end to it and create something new afterwards - that the french can do. He's more vocally campaigning against the Euro but it is obvious that the Euro and the neoliberal EU stand (and will fall) as one.

    Edit: I've included another explanation of my hostility to the EU here, I feel I should explain why I see the EU as the single most important policy issue in Europe at present, and therefore in the upcoming french elections.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2017
    Kyriakos and Vahnstad like this.

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