1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

French presidential election 2017

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by AdrienIer, Nov 20, 2016.

  1. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,295
    Location:
    Paris
    There was a poll this morning about the election if Fillon was going to step down for Alain Juppé. The result was unexpected. Juppé 26.5%, Macron 25%, Le Pen 24% and eliminated. I think it's the first poll of this cycle where Le Pen doesn't go to the second round.
     
  2. HannibalBarka

    HannibalBarka We are Free

    Joined:
    May 14, 2003
    Messages:
    3,946
    Location:
    Paris, France
    As much as I think either Macron or Juppé will be fine, I'm a PRAFist after all, having the two in the second round will make many people angry and about half the population "unrepresented" at all in the second round which is a bit weird.
     
  3. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,295
    Location:
    Paris
    Yeah, Macron vs Juppé would be a choice of which coalition you want in power, not a choice between different policies. Macron would probably govern with the centrists and, if needed, with the socialists (at least their right wing) when Juppé would govern with the right and center right (and, amusingly, with Macron's people if needed).
    There's also the hilarious (but only if you're into dark humour) idea that both would govern with the same coalition (Macron-UDI-LR) and that the second round would just be a choice of which man you think can enact those policies more efficiently. :sad:
     
  4. HannibalBarka

    HannibalBarka We are Free

    Joined:
    May 14, 2003
    Messages:
    3,946
    Location:
    Paris, France
    A Macron-Juppé coalition: One may say that that's how Germany has been governed for most of the last 15 years, and it worked quite nicely ;-)
    Now this is France
     
  5. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    54,579
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    ^Yes it worked quite nicely. It also produced the current massive EU death crisis.
     
  6. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2006
    Messages:
    11,057
    My guess is that one was ordered to push Fillon to give up. The numbers make no sense when you consider that Macron and Juppé cannibalize each other: where would the extra support for the sum of the two come from?
     
  7. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,295
    Location:
    Paris
    Looking at the numbers from 2012 :
    Hollande 28
    Sarkozy 27
    MLP 18
    Melenchon 11
    Bayrou 9
    Joly 2
    Dupont Aignan 2
    Poutou 1

    Let's look at the voter's movement since then.

    Current polls have Melenchon at 11-12 and Hamon at 16.
    I assume this poll was a bit less favorable to the left, probably with Melenchon at 10 and Hamon at 14 (it has to be, there are only 24.5% remaining after the top 3). It doesn't make the poll an outlier, just in the low range for the left.

    So Melenchon + Poutou makes 12% in 2012, down to 10% now. Let's say those missing 2% are voting for Hamon.

    Out of Hollande + Joly's 30, plus the 2% from before, 14 are going to Hamon. That leaves 18% for others.

    Let's just say that out of Sarkozy's 27, 6% have gone to Le Pen. That leaves 21. Add to that the 9 from Bayrou and you have 48% of people left in the center + right.

    Add to that Dupont Aignan's 2% and you're at 50. Juppé gets Sarkozy's 21%, Dupont Aignan's 2% and 3.5% from Bayrou for 26.5. Macron gets 5.5% from Bayrou, 18 from Hollande and 1.5% for "novelty" (and to correct my rounding of all the numbers). And now he's at 25.

    It's not too far fetched. It relies on the left doing very poorly, and on there being no other right wing candidates (Dupont Aignan seems on course to get there). I don't think it will happen though, because right now Hamon hasn't really started his campaign. After chasing down Jadot and Melenchon for deals he's just starting the actual campaigning, and can only go up in the polls now, leaving less room for Macron on his left.
     
  8. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,295
    Location:
    Paris
    The right is in shambles. After Fillon's ridiculous rally on sunday Juppé confirmed this morning that he was not going to be candidate (but still criticized Fillon's obstination). Apparently Sarkozy was still opposed to Juppé taking over : someone close to Juppé said that Sarkozy preferred losing with Fillon over winning with Juppé.
    The sarkozists are trying to push François Barouin up, but the other two "young guard" of the right (X. Bertrand and L. Wauquiez) are keeping him in check. So currently Fillon is still the most likely candidate.

    Meanwhile the UDI (centre right) is still asking for Fillon to step down, and they're trying to bring Jean-Louis Borloo back to the national stage (he's been busy these past 5 years mounting a program to bring electricity to 600 million Africans by 2025). They've already withdrawn their support for Fillon, and IMO if he's maintained by the right as their candidate they might turn to Macron.
     
  9. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    54,579
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    ^Would a leftist candidate in round 2 (along with Le Pen) produce a win for leftist candidate?
     
  10. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,295
    Location:
    Paris
    There have been no poll on that yet. Unless you count Macron as a leftist, but I doubt that.
    My gut says that it would be a tossup, and would depend on how the campaign went. Hamon would have a much better chance than Melenchon
     
  11. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2001
    Messages:
    13,232
    Location:
    Facing my computer.
    I'd say it would be much more than a toss-up - a large majority win. Most of the mainstream, both left and right, will vote against MLP for now, and a good amount of the FN draw is about economic exploitation (though, like for Trump, people voting for the FN against exploitation are for in a rough wakening when they realize that a wealthy candidate with a history of lining her pockets and ties to the wealthy elite is unlikely to actually bother a lot for the worker beside populist rhetoric) which would be more sensitive to Hamon's campaign.
     
  12. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,295
    Location:
    Paris
    You underestimate the right's loathing of the left (the real left), and overestimate how much the far left would mobilize for Hamon. For certain people on the far left, belonging to the socialist party automatically makes you a traitor.

    The distance between Fillon and Hamon is now greater than the distance between Fillon and Le Pen. And some of Melenchon's supporters are completely oblivious to how close Hamon and Melenchon truly are.


    We're heading for an election with 9 candidates including two additional anti-EU right wingers (Dupont-Aignan and Asselineau), which could take some votes away from Le Pen and Fillon. Good.
     
  13. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2006
    Messages:
    11,057
    I still am not convinced that Hamon is real left. His history in politics before he advanced to this election says otherwise, he was happy enough to keep supporting Hollande's government instead of breaking away from him, and from his party if necessary.
     
  14. HannibalBarka

    HannibalBarka We are Free

    Joined:
    May 14, 2003
    Messages:
    3,946
    Location:
    Paris, France
    that would depend on how you define right and left ;-) If Hamon is not the left than the Left won't weight more than 25% in France.
    I'll only be worried if Lepen is against Melonchon on the 2nd round because He is anathema to many people in the center and right, even more so than her. But that 2nd round won't happen in any scenarii. I think most likely we're going for a Macron-Lepen: left/right divide will let its place to the globalist/anti-globalist duel
     
  15. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,295
    Location:
    Paris
    Yesterday Hamon compared the choice between him and Macron with a choice between Sanders and Clinton. He noted that Clinton did not win.

    If the divide becomes globalist vs anti globalist then Le Pen has won ideologically and it's probably just a matter of time before she's elected. That's why the left needs to unite (after the elections of course, it's too late for 2017), and propose an alternative.
     
  16. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,057
    Gender:
    Male
    I can tell you the main reason Hillary lost (this is coming from an ex Sanders supporter) is not that Sanders lost to Hillary, but HOW he lost.

    He got completely cheated, both by the Democratic party, by the media, by the corporations that overwhelmingly donated to Hillary, and by the establishment.

    Whoever 'the left' elects, it should be fair.
     
  17. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2005
    Messages:
    6,822
    Location:
    Land of the Successor
    Hamon is being disingenuous. Macron is young, charismatic, and lacks baggage. If anyone, he's Obama. Now, the people outside of his base could definitely feel alienated during a potential presidency and mobilize to elect a FN candidate down the line, like what's happpened here, but he's no Hillary.
     
  18. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Chieftain

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,295
    Location:
    Paris
    There are two sides to his comment. When it comes to comparing them policy wise with their American counterparts he's mostly right. Macron is pro business, Hamon actually represents the left. But yeah, I don't see Macron losing this election to Le Pen.
     
  19. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2006
    Messages:
    11,057
    Pro business... what if we called that kind of politicians instead for what "pro business" means: pro oligarchs?
     
  20. Arwon

    Arwon

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2006
    Messages:
    17,399
    Location:
    Canberra
    Presumably turnout change? That's often the hidden variable in multi party polls like this.
     

Share This Page