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French presidential election 2017

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by AdrienIer, Nov 20, 2016.

  1. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Turns out I was wrong : a poll just came out saying that Macron's party would get between 249 and 286 MPs (majority is at 289), LR would get 200-210, the socialists 28-43, the FN 15-25 and the far left 6 to 8. Which would make a Macron + PS coalition possible. I think the far left is going to get more seats than that (they currently have 10) but it's an interesting first poll.
     
  2. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    I think that all pollsters have a major problem in dealing with the people who are uncontactable,
    decline to take part in their polls, tell them that they don't know, to get lost or none of your business.

    They know that such people's actual votes won't necessarily map the respondents voting; so they
    correctly feel that they can not just omit them from consideration and try to guess their intentions.

    But guessing their intentions is difficult, often relies on analogies with previous polls, estimates, actual
    voting and post vote survey analysis; but such analogies have a limitation in that each election or
    referendum has many unique features so refining models for previous inaccuracies is only partially relevant.

    There is a theory that such non respondents tend to vote for the status quo so for example they might
    be allocated 4/7 (5/9) status quo, 3/7 (4/9) for change. But what is status quo and what is change?

    For the UK referendum, pollsters may have assumed that Remain was status quo and Leave change.
    This was the line those in authority postulated and no doubt that many people and pollsters bought it.
    But some people considered that the UK was not yet fully incorporated as becoming a region of EU state,
    so Leave was for the status quo, continuing existence of UK, while Remain was for change closer union.

    So if 21% decline to reply, the difference between 4/7 of 21% (12%) and 3/7 of 21% (9%) is 3%.
    Or if 18% decline to reply, the difference between 5/9 of 18% (10%) and 4/9 of 18% (8%) is 2%.

    So a prediction of a 51%/49% one way can easily be surprised by a 51%/49% result the other way.

    I also have a theory that if you think your side is going to win, one is more likely to relax and not vote.

    If one thinks that one's side is going to lose, one may turn up to reduce the other's side's majority
    or merely to be able to smugly say later in the pub (bar), well I didn't vote for that.

    While this would normally just reduce the margin of victory/loss; if the poll prediction has a result but
    the wrong result; this overconfident abstainers, grumpy defeatists factor may further swing the result.

    In practice I think that the poll difference in the French Presidential election is sufficiently wide that these
    two factors would merely result in Macron's majority being reduced from that estimated by polling.

    Still I await the result, to refute or vindicate my humble theorising.
     
  3. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    I just learned that Macron will be going to Mediapart (a very left wing online newspaper) on friday. Considering how tough they usually are, and how critical they are of his policies, it's a brave move. Melenchon for example was too scared to go.
     
  4. Cheetah

    Cheetah Deity

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    What kind of though?

    Also, is there anywhere I can see an English version, like the previous debate?

     
  5. Cheetah

    Cheetah Deity

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    Found. :)

     
  6. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Not afraid to ask you questions you don't want to answer. Being frontal about where you F-ed up or about something stupid you said. On the other hand they'll let you explain yourself and won't be there to lynch you.
    But I guarantee that it won't be the best hour of his life.
     
  7. Cheetah

    Cheetah Deity

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    So... This was interesting.

    I got everything through translators, of course, but... Le Pen sounded... Did she really claim that the Vichy regime wasn't "real" French people?

    And all the other stuff she said...Did the translators mess up?
     
  8. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

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    Le Pen chains lies upon lies. Don't be surprised by what you hear her say.
     
    AdrienIer likes this.
  9. Colon

    Colon King

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    I've been following the BBC live blog and it looked like a nasty fight.
     
  10. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Typical FN position. Things France did wrong fall into 2 categories. Either they weren't so bad or they weren't really done by french people.
    Hence the current economic problems are the EU's fault because it can't be France's fault
     
  11. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

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  12. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Well...:



    (I suppose it means neither country - nor Lepen, and neither patron (pejorative) - nor Macron, and apparently originally it was patrie=Lepen, patron=Macron).

    Both seem apt, though :p
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2017
  13. Grisu

    Grisu Draghetto Retired Moderator

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    Considering how many votes Le Pen got in the first round I was expecting (or fearing) a lot more seats for the FN. Is that because of the voting system or would just nobody vote for the FN a as a party?
     
  14. Lillefix

    Lillefix I'm serious. You can.

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    She has tried to distance herself from the party during the election, so maybe that's a part of it.
     
  15. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Definitely the voting system. FN vs non FN will usually trigger a "republican front" against the FN, which will lead to its defeat.
    The main way in which the FN can win seats is that, unlike in the presidential election, there can be more than two candidates in the second round (to qualify for the second round you need to have a number of votes larger than 12.5% of the number of eligible voters in the electoral district, which can lead to 3 or even 4 candidates in the second round). So if more than 2 candidates are qualified and the one who finished third doesn't withdraw in favor of the other non-FN one the FN candidate has a chance. In most other cases it has no chance.

    Basically that's what happened in the last regional elections where Marine Le Pen and Marion Maréchal Le Pen lost in the second round in very winnable regions after the socialists withdrew from the second round in favor of the right
     
  16. Mark Havel

    Mark Havel Warlord

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    That was more or less what most French leaders said until Jacques Chirac in 1995. It originated from De Gaulle, who was back then probably more concerned about reuniting and reconciling the country after the war rather than historic and factual truth. More than 70 years later, there shouldn't be any debate whatsoever. This is something she said to appeal to her base before the first round of polling, when all hell broke loose after everyone saw that Mélenchon had skyrocketted in polls and was seemingly about to be the third or even second man in this election. And it came back to her face during that braw... erm, debate.

    I think it's a reference to the anarchist motto "no gods, no masters", which, in this case, is to be translated as "No fatherland (Le Pen), no boss (Macron)".
     
  17. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

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    More than anything, it's a witty play on words, sounds and what the actual candidates more or less stand for.
     
  18. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    ^Patron isn't really more appealing even than Patrie, though.. At least Patrie can be spinned more easily to mean something positive.
     
  19. danjuno

    danjuno Emperor

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    Definitely catchy.
     
  20. Leoreth

    Leoreth Prince of Blood Moderator

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    Bless France24, really.

    Seems to be mostly Americans. My personal impression is that general confidence in actual polling dropped after the presidential election was allegedly mispredicted, combined with the cultural belief that markets know best. Nothing against people trying to make money there but it's ridiculous to treat them as actual political indicators.
     

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