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French presidential election 2017

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by AdrienIer, Nov 20, 2016.

  1. Leoreth

    Leoreth Prince of Blood Moderator

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    That's not really specific to French polling though.
     
  2. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Then I don't know what to say. Our presidential polls between the first and second round are usually very closely packed so I'm not suprised at all.
    In 2012 they were all between 53/47 and 56/44 for Hollande. Final result 51.5/48.5
    In 2007, between 51/49 and 54.5/45.5 for Sarkozy. Final result 53/47.
     
  3. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Deity Retired Moderator

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    Yeah, I'm assuming the likely voter screening is similar but with a higher probability of voting. It sounds like the reason the preliminary results are right is because a representative sample of actual polling stations do all their counting extremely quickly, but there's no way there could be anything like that going on before the election. I don't know of any way to get these results without herding or a true statistical fluke.

    Herding will produce something within 1 standard poll MoE of the correct result fairly often, so a string of a few successes is to be expected. It just means there's a much higher probability of the poll average being wrong by more than a couple percentage points, because all polls have been essentially reduced to just a single poll, with some time lag built in too. It doesn't matter in this case because they could miss by 18 in either direction and still get the final outcome right, but the odds of the final result being either 55/45 or 67/33 are both considerably higher than the poll margins of error would indicate.
     
  4. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

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    So how do people think the French will take the leaks? I feel like it could even swing numbers toward Macron, since the appearance is that he is being attacked by foreign terrorists and spies. It certainly doesn't have the aura of legitimacy that a statement by a certain FBI did six months ago.
     
  5. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Deity Retired Moderator

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    What is even in the leaks? I haven't heard details yet, just that there has been a big one against him, with the NYT seeming to insinuate that it's Russia again.
     
  6. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    It seems to me that Macron's tax evasion schemes were busted and he's trying to pass himself off as a victim of "election hacking" announcing the theft of campaign emails. Possibly in hope of confusing the issue until after the vote. Whatever hacking his campaign suffered should not have produced details on his bank accounts domiciled in tax evasion jurisdictions. But it sure is timely to distract attention from those.

    Then again I'm biased against him and inclined to believe the worst about him. No time to objectively evaluate it yet.
     
    Kyriakos likes this.
  7. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    Don't you just love it when the corrupt get their dirty laundry aired out and they try to act like they are the victims for being exposed?
     
  8. Kozmos

    Kozmos Jew Detective

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    A cursory examination of the tax evasion papers revealed they forgot to merge the layers. Emails seem real. Mr. Macron loves chocolate bread or cocaine, depending on who you ask.
     
  9. Mechanicalsalvation

    Mechanicalsalvation -

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    God I hope its Le Pen.

     
  10. Gigaz

    Gigaz civoholic

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    Of corse it's Russia.
    The information is publicly available and it's about 9 Gb of emails, documents and photographs. It's not difficult to find the raw data via google and twitter. Macron says it's part real, part fake, and there is little time to check anything. So most mainstream french media are obviously hesitant to publish possible lies that may hand the election to Le Pen.
     
  11. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

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    So far it seems that the actually embarassing part (tax evasion) is completely and very obviously fake - the guys even forgot to remove the layers in the PDF. Even ***** people are laughing about it. En Marche has recognized that a number of email are true, mixed with the false data.
    It could come from some Internet trolls, right-wing friends or other sources, but obviously Russia is a major suspect (it has a documented history trying to interfere with western elections, and Le Pen is obviously the favourite of Putin).
     
  12. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Most incompetent leaks ever.
    Besides the fact that some of the documents are obviously fake, the leakers forgot that the french campaign is over since midnight. The national electoral commission has already recommended that newspapers radios and tv do not talk about what's in the leaks, because that would be interfering in the campaign, and that propagating false information is illegal.

    The hackers also forgot that unless Macron is eating live children in his basement every week, Marine Le Pen is already under investigation for worse than what he's doing.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2017
  13. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    That's the beauty of the internet though. Non-French media can publish the leaks all they want as they are not bound by French election laws, regulations, or customs. And assuming the French government doesn't censor the internet, the French people will still have access to all that info, even if their own media won't report on it.
     
  14. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    I can assure you that most people won't get the information if it's only available on non standard websites.
     
  15. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    Well I know it's all over YouTube right now. I'd say that's about as standard as websites get.
     
  16. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    What kind of youtube channel is reporting it ? I didn't see it on my youtube feed this morning. The question is whether there are french channels with good visibility (over 50k) that are reporting it heavily. I don't have the answer to that, but I doubt that it got much further than the far right channels.

    Edit : Macron stayed two and a half hours at Mediapart yesterday. From the comments I heard he did well, and there was some quality discussion. I'm tempted to listen to it, but 2.5h is a lot...
     
  17. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Would it be that surprising if Macron did do the Patron stuff?
    Not saying that if it was so it makes sense to leak it now, cause as you said no reporting is allowed, so it does sound more like a "they can't do anything at this point, so just flood them with anti-Macron stuff".
    I am not familiar with Macron, and like Inno i am not hopeful he will do anything real to make things better in the Eu, but i have no opinion on this leak, and the timing is obviously sub-par if the aim was to present good/thorough info against him.
     
  18. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    What are the French succession protocols for the presidency? I ask because it was mentioned that Le Pen is under investigation so I was thinking who would take over if she ended up winning, but then the investigation turned up something that warranted booting her out of office. Is it like the US, where the French equivalent of the vice president would take over? Or would the runner-up in the election become the new president? Or would there be an emergency election?
     
  19. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    ^It is Eu; they wouldn't lose their presidency. Berlusconi was under many investigations for years.
    Not that i suspect it is worse in France than here, cause here it is virtually impossible for any of those politician goons to ever be sent to jail.
     
  20. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    What do you mean ?
     

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