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French presidential election 2017

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by AdrienIer, Nov 20, 2016.

  1. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Deity Retired Moderator

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    Okay everyone, best guesses? I'm thinking it will be more of a blowout than expected; I'll go with 66/34 Macron. The data from the regional elections 18 months ago, at the height of the migrant crisis, makes me think that French voters for mainstream parties really do just virtually all plug their noses and all vote for whoever is not FN during the second round of any given election. I'm sure the blank+abstention rate will be higher than usual, but not by enough to matter. I think that any herding effect is much more likely to be biased against Macron rather than for him; it would go the other way if this election were close, but total blowouts don't deliver the same coverage and the narrative the world media have been spinning since Trump has tended to overestimate right-wing populists.

    In reality, the only real way right-wing populists end up in power in developed countries is by forming alliances with the mainstream right, most effectively by taking over the mainstream right party rather than by functioning as a third party in coalition*. Sometimes they do it in a competent, methodical way like Orban, and sometimes they do it in a cartoonishly inept way like Trump. People with far-right/RWP views are a solid 25% or so in most countries, but they tend to hit a wall once they get much above that level and need support by mainstream right people (e.g. Boris Johnson and Michael Gove for Brexit, or the whole GOP starting with Christie and ending with Ryan for Trump) who collude with them to further their own careers.

    *Hitler might seem like an exception, but he never got close to a majority (best free-election result was 37% in Feb 1932) and had to rely on being appointed by an executive president to form a minority government, and then use the very large number of SA and other thugs who dwarfed the real army. Still, even under the repression in place by March 1933, he ended up with 44% of the vote and quite a bit shy of a parliamentary majority. He had to get even more repressive than that in order to intimidate all of the centrists into supporting the Enabling Act and ending all semblance of democracy.
     
  2. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

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    Let's just say that I'm glad I put a small bet on MOV 22+ on predictit early this week.
     
  3. Gigaz

    Gigaz civoholic

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    In principle it can, since 2007.

     
  4. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Huh, that's weird. But good. I didn't find it on the french wikipedia
     
  5. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Here you can have parliamentary procedures to remove temporary (while they are mps) immunity of mps, but in practice the result is almost always a vote to keep it. Another charade.
     
  6. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Participation at noon is the same as two weeks ago, two points below 5 years ago
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2017
  7. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

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    • Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon : Macron 63,3%, Le Pen 36,7%
    • Saint-Barthélemy : Macron 58,4%, Le Pen 41,6%
    • Saint-Martin : Macron 67,6%, Le Pen 32,4%
    • Guadeloupe : Macron 75,1% , Le Pen 24,9%
    • Martinique : Macron 77,5, Le Pen 22,5%
    • Guyane : Macron 65%, Le Pen 35%
    • New-York : Macron 94,7%, Le Pen 5,3%
    • Chicago / Midwest : Macron 92%, Le Pen 8%
    • Boston : Macron 95,7%, Le Pen 4,3%
    • Ottawa et Montréal : Macron 90%, Le Pen 10%
     
  8. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Where did you get the numbers ?
     
  9. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

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  10. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    I am wondering how high the blank and spoiled vote will be... (probably my option if I had this to choose from)
     
  11. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Thanks. The belgians also say that Macron is getting above 60%
     
  12. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

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    Yes current projections 62-64% vote share, higher than expected turnout.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2017
  13. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    Participation at 17:00 is low. 65% when it was 69% two weeks ago and 72% 5 years ago
     
  14. Leoreth

    Leoreth Prince of Blood Moderator

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    We seem to have very different understandings of democracy and transparency. I want transparency to allow voters to make informed decisions based on facts as they are available. That explicitly includes allowing the accused to make a defense of their actions. If the leaks are genuinely damning, such a defense surely will be ineffective.

    Your world is a world where smear campaigns of incomplete or fabricated accusations become the norm, which is the opposite of why we want transparency in democracies.

    That's a reasonable course of action from a partisan perspective, but nevertheless not a good thing for democracy.
     
    Evie likes this.
  15. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    It's been proven by the Fillon case.
     
  16. dutchfire

    dutchfire Deity

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    Macron has it at 65%, Le Pen at 35%.

    Rather big polling miss, but in overestimating Le Pen.
     
  17. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Deity Retired Moderator

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    But I called it. :smug:
     
  18. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

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    Well, 65+ vs 35-, no surprise in the end.
    Still, lowest attendance for a presidential vote ever (that's still about 75 %, we're not the US), highest blank vote too (4 millions or so).

    This is a very strange election, where the obvious numbers and the real meaning are actually pretty dissonant.
    Macron, despite having a huge majority of the votes, already feels on a very weak footing, with a considerable opposition (ton of abstention and blank votes, and the highest number of FN voters ever).
    Le Pen, despite having said highest number of votes ever, actually fell quite short of what was hoped by the FN (above 40%). Her abysmal debate probably didn't help.
    The biggest winner is probably the EU, and the debate about the Euro is pretty much killed here.
     
  19. Takhisis

    Takhisis Jinping, wer fragt uns?

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    up yours!
    Eh? This is something you can only say if you're a policeman investigating them and you don't want them to hide the evidence.
     
  20. Kozmos

    Kozmos Jew Detective

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    Watching t_d foam at the mouth is great.
     

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