French presidential election 2017

5 years from now, France's economy will be doing a lot better; there will be more jobs and youth employment will rise to normal levels. France's place within the EU will be elevated once again to parity with Germany. The refugee crisis and the Eurozone debt crisis will be distant memories. Brexit will be a disaster, and a clear warning that isolationist, xenophobic politics is simply not an option: open, liberal politics is the only route to prosperity. As France's outlook improves, FN's voter base will diminish, and En Marche (or its successor) will continue to do well.

Calling it now.

This so naive! (Neo)Liberal politics is the reason the EU and the West is in such a mess in the first place. Wishful thinking! Lol.
 
Damn, this hit far too close to home to not hurt.

There is a wide warning (which is exagerrated, but carry the point), that electing Macron just means "electing MLP in 5 years". I don't think it's really true, but that's because the FN is too rotten at the core, too based on populism and fascism, too lacking in what a real solution need (which is : a real plan and moral honesty). But that the FN manages to reach such high numbers, and that it doesn't surprise anyone anymore (Jean-Marie Le Pen reaching the secound round in 2002 was really a complete surprise and an earthquake in the country, it's hard to overstate the scale of the shock ; MLP has twice the number of votes, and people actually expected her to do better), show there is really a deep problem, and it's doubtful it's going to go away.

But they will never win I think, even if elected. Money is too powerful, the electorate too fickle. Right wing populism is based on a hollow core of self-interest and thus must always seek the approval of the monied interests. Left wing populism might be more benevolent, but they too are beholden to evidence based policy and people who support that, which again is usually people with money. Friction is inevitable either way, but the end result is not I think. Which is the states implementing stronger social safety nets so people can keep buying more stuff.

This so naive! (Neo)Liberal politics is the reason the EU and the West is in such a mess in the first place. Wishful thinking! Lol.

Highest standards of life = mess.

5 years from now, France's economy will be doing a lot better; there will be more jobs and youth employment will rise to normal levels. France's place within the EU will be elevated once again to parity with Germany. The refugee crisis and the Eurozone debt crisis will be distant memories. Brexit will be a disaster, and a clear warning that isolationist, xenophobic politics is simply not an option: open, liberal politics is the only route to prosperity. As France's outlook improves, FN's voter base will diminish, and En Marche (or its successor) will continue to do well.

Calling it now.


This, but unironically.
 
Less democracy, more power to unelected elite and corporative fascism = mess

I don't like the term projecting and I've never used it before, but stop projecting the flaws of your country into ours.

Less democracy : we have plenty of parties, so no undemocratic two party system. And if you don't like political parties the guy who just won did it outside the political parties. So nothing like the 1-party state that is Russia nowadays.
Power to unelected elites : we don't have oligarchs running the country for us here. I don't know which "unelected elites" you're referring to but we have very little unelected leadership (except people named by elected people).
Corporate fascism : "fascism is an autoritarian political system that associates populism, nationalism and totalitarianism in the name of a supreme collective ideal". Exactly what MLP proposed. Also applies to Putin to some extent. Certainly not to Macron, or the EU. So unless you have a different rigorous definition of corporate fascism, stop applying random words at people.
 
Well it seemed you disagreed with my stance that in a democracy the will of the people being done is a good thing, regardless of what that will might be. If you do disagree with that, then you must support the idea that sometimes the will of the people must be ignored. And since I doubt you would support ignoring the will of the people when they vote for something you support, it's not too much of a stretch to assume you think those instances in which the will of the people must be ignored are instances in which they vote for something you disagree with.
There's a lot of nuance that you're ignoring. To say that it isn't good for a fascist to win power, even if it's the democratic will of the voters, is not to say that it would be better to ignore that democratic will. Rather, it's to say that the positive moral value in democracy does not magically make the outcomes of democracy good. Thus, the fact that a majority of voters opted for a fascist, would not make that choice an objectively good one, and it would not make the result of a fascist gaining power an objectively good result. Abiding by the democratic result would remain a good thing, but that good thing doesn't mean everything associated with it also, by definition, good.

In other words, the leap from "democracy is good and we should support democracy" to "the outcome of a democratic election is always good" is not logically sound.
 
Thus, the fact that a majority of voters opted for a fascist, would not make that choice an objectively good one,

There's the problem right there though. I'm someone who does not really believe there is a such thing as objective good and objective bad. Good and bad are a matter of perspective. So while you may see a fascist victory as a bad outcome, the fascists certainly wouldn't.
 
Less democracy, more power to unelected elite and corporative fascism = mess

No that's business as usual, democracy even in old Greece fell prey to baser instincts, more wealth, more loot, cheaper goods. Mess is defined by ethnic cleansing, starvation, riots, hiding in bomb shelters and fleeing ultranationalist paramilitaries who shelled you village. You should try it and then we'll reconvene on the definition of a mess.
 
No that's business as usual, democracy even in old Greece fell prey to baser instincts, more wealth, more loot, cheaper goods. Mess is defined by ethnic cleansing, starvation, riots, hiding in bomb shelters and fleeing ultranationalist paramilitaries who shelled you village. You should try it and then we'll reconvene on the definition of a mess.
You cant separate the mess of Syria, Libya, Iraq and other places from whats happening in the West. The material and human resources of the West together with its humanitarian and political capital was used for interventions and invasions by way of breaking international law, through commiting of war crimes and with disregard to democracy - popular will of either the Westerners or of the people in the supressed countries. The result is less democracy and less civil rights in the West itself.
 
Well it seemed you disagreed with my stance that in a democracy the will of the people being done is a good thing, regardless of what that will might be. If you do disagree with that, then you must support the idea that sometimes the will of the people must be ignored.

Uh, no, I mustn't.
 
One of the slogans that FN supporters love to shout at rallies is "On est chez nous," trans. "We are at home!"

I actually happen to love the slogan! Why?

Because it has an even better effect when immigrants shout it.
 
Strange complaints from a Putin fanboy.
You do realise that history matters? There is different development in various parts of the world and when you make judgments you need to take that into an account. On the top of that you cant expect govern China the same way as Switzerland for obvious reasons. And than there is the hostile geopolitical environment...

My point is that the democracy in the West is on decline. Prove me wrong.
 
You do realise that history matters? There is different development in various parts of the world and when you make judgments you need to take that into an account. On the top of that you cant expect govern China the same way as Switzerland for obvious reasons. And than there is the hostile geopolitical environment...
One of the few things the Soviets actually did a decent job of, was building up a strong public education system.
Tell me you're not arguing that Western standards of democracy and general good governance are a priori inviable in Russia because they lack proper "development".
You might have a case if we were discussing Afghanistan. With Russia you absolutely do not.
"Hostile geopolitical environment" is even sorrier excuse.
My point is that the democracy in the West is on decline. Prove me wrong.
If you count Turkey and Russia with "the West".
 
One of the few things the Soviets actually did a decent job of, was building up a strong public education system.
Tell me you're not arguing that Western standards of democracy and general good governance are a priori inviable in Russia because they lack proper "development".
No thats not my argument.
"Hostile geopolitical environment" is even sorrier excuse.
No itsnt:
P. Wolfowitz said:
Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.
 
You cant separate the mess of Syria, Libya, Iraq and other places from whats happening in the West. The material and human resources of the West together with its humanitarian and political capital was used for interventions and invasions by way of breaking international law, through commiting of war crimes and with disregard to democracy - popular will of either the Westerners or of the people in the supressed countries. The result is less democracy and less civil rights in the West itself.

Like I said, it's the same as it has always been. Democracy was always manipulated by the people in it and around it. You just didn't see it and/or didn't care. Every foreign policy that exploited other countries did so because people always vote on economic growth, comfort and security. Always have, always will. Singapore, China, Turkey, the West. It's the same all around. Democracy is doing exactly what you want it to.
 
No thats not my argument.
So what is?
No itsnt:
And? What in that perfectly reasonable strategy means "we hate Russia in its post-Soviet borders"?
And I don't consider "geopolitical situation" - no matter what it looks like - an excuse for corruption, although I understand this is a leading Putinist narrative.
"They all hate us - we need to stand together and refrain from questioning the Czar! There is no alternative!"

But we are hijacking the thread that should be about France - feel free to move to a Russian thread if you wish to respond.
 
There's the problem right there though. I'm someone who does not really believe there is a such thing as objective good and objective bad. Good and bad are a matter of perspective. So while you may see a fascist victory as a bad outcome, the fascists certainly wouldn't.
I agree, but yet it's quite a twisted moral philosophy that says we can't properly pass judgment on the outcomes of the democratic process, because the majority choice is always good, by definition. That wouldn't free you from the role of judge in any case - it'd just mean you'd be always calling the choice of 49% bad, instead of 51%, without exercising any independent judgment.

In other words, whilst everyone has their own perspective, we don't have to be ardent positivists to maintain that some of them are wrong. We just have to avoid a completely unsophisticated understanding of the word 'wrong'.
 
Glad madness did not prevail this time. I only hope that after all these scares the EU and all western governments examine themselves and get aware of what is broken, so freaks like Le pen, Trump or brexit wont happen again. At least the ones still on time to fix it.
 
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