Akka
Moody old mage.
Well, you probably understand better the political positioning of some posters at least.ok
Thanks for all that I now understand better
French presidential election 2024
- Thread starter innonimatu
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Understanding position, track record, etc goes hand in hand with understanding the topic from discussion contributions.
As an exemple, here's a own testimony in my previous city, with a conservative-pro-ue-right deputy-mayor (UMP at that time, would be LR now) in a city council in 2012 if I remember well :
With the JO in London, the local judo club thanks to its athletes got places to go in uk see the happening.
It was decided to let children have it, and let the mayor organize in the city's schools a tombola so kids may earn it.
Problem, the uk's visa capacities thus delays at that moment made it impossible for non-eu people to have their papers on time.
It was then decided by the mayor to limit the tombola to the children who could benefit from it : EU kids.
The leftist opposition organized a small party from outside the city to fudge the city council based on racist policy condemnation ...
The leftists prefered no one to benefit from these gifts rather than (mostly) french and eu kids to see uk stadiums during the jo, despite these french, in this near-Paris city, beeing from many colors (and racists far rightist would indeed judge too few white indigenous).
That's the left position in France nowadays towards "racism", which still exist indeed in diverse forms to fight against.
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Akka
Moody old mage.
Le Pen wouldn't openly support Russia due to PR, but she was still saying a few days ago (before Bucha I think) that "Russia might be a friend again once it's out of Ukraine".
She was openly friendly with Putin, and in 2014 got a loan from him.
So basically she would give lip service to international law and then undermine Western unity, kinda like Orban (of which she is on friendly terms too).
I don't know if Macron would support Ukraine more, less or the same. But he's the only pro-NATO among all the candidates. The center-left in France has been basically killed, there is only some measure of "left", a moderate "far-left", and from the ashes of a lack of left-wing policies during the 20 past years, a very strong far-right.
The stubborn refusal of the elites to reform the system is opening the path to populism, with the working class as the usual loser (because it's certainly not the far-right populist parties which will really improve the lot of the working class despite all their promises).
Truth is, rather than populism which in essence is a good thing to have as a goal, demagogic promesses and words are shared by all our politics.
None of them dare say how some treaties bind french possibilities.
Those who timidly do dare not say how costly for masses it would be to free from these treaties.
None of them dare say french people are rather rich, managing the people feelings when most of them compare their wealth with themselves, disregarding wealth in other geographics or in other times.
None of them dare say how even the poorer french consumption isn't compatible with french climate objectives.
All are proposing incoherent projects, caused by irealistic promesses in excess bound together.
.
In the end when some say the french monarchy got restored, that could roughly be seen true in some points :
The people of France would collectively be its king, vassal of ue and us, yet capricious and glutton victim of its own pleonexia, where our politics could be a kind of corrupted courtesanry turning around to wins its favors, using flattery on one side, some ploutocratic and mediatic influences on the other to seize ministry over the country.
On a democratic idealist point of view, that's quite a sad metaphore.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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Imo the only thing that can prevent a Le Pen win next month is Melenchon going o the second round against her and going unusually and unexpectedly good at campaigning.
My estimate is Le Pen with between 25-30% in the first round, Macron 25-20%, and Melenchon slightly under 20%.
The PCF candidate would have to quit NOW and come out strongly in support of a "left candidate to beat Macron" - no need to name names, everyone knows who he'd mean. Then the 2% who cling to the rotting carcass of the PS might switch votes tomorrow too. That might move about 5% of the vote. Still it would require luck - Macron underperforming now more that even I expect. But it's the last change. This should have been done a couple days ago. The left in France instead wants to hang separately.
Whatever happens the 5th republic is at an end, but there's one more cycle before it ends. It's not being replaced immediately as a result of this election. Next one - that will be the decisive one. Smart politicians probably don't want to win this election, considering the pile of crap currently sliding down the time slope. And that no one will this round have enough of a majority in legislative elections to start rewriting the constitution outright.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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Nothing so dramatic!
The trend is for France to evolve to a more parliamentarian system. That's very much a part of the Melenchon campaign. The president has far too much power in France.
How Le Pen, in case she wins, may explore dissatisfaction is hard to predict. She won't have a legislative majority, which makes scapegoating the legislature for any failures of the presidency an option and leads down different paths. But she can't pull an 18 Brumaire.
The trend is for France to evolve to a more parliamentarian system. That's very much a part of the Melenchon campaign. The president has far too much power in France.
How Le Pen, in case she wins, may explore dissatisfaction is hard to predict. She won't have a legislative majority, which makes scapegoating the legislature for any failures of the presidency an option and leads down different paths. But she can't pull an 18 Brumaire.
EnglishEdward
Deity
I assume you are referring to:
https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/london-2012/results/judo
The conservative liberal democrat coalition that took power in the UK in 2010 decided on three contradictory policies;
(a) to cut tax, (b) to massively increase overseas aid, AND (c) significantly reduce public expenditure in other areas.
There were very large cuts in HO Immigration and Nationality Departments and the Borders Agency then.
That reduced resources to quickly deal with visa applicants for short term attendance at UK events then.
The UK still has the consequences of those decisions e.g. in processing of visa for Ukrainian refugees.
Addendum
Macro visited Putin 10 February to defuse Russia-Ukraine crisis
As Vlad Putin initiated his "major operation" just two weeks later,
I'd guess that hardly helps President Macron's re-election chances.
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On Uk's defense, the gifts may have been awarded to the club somehow "late" too.
On the leftists in this particular point (led by the local deputy candidate), those idiots were arguing against the mayor rational decision, not against uk's policies.
Whatever.
A false "racist" blame was put on that mayor on an easy lying propaganda.
Of course idiots can be found everywhere.
Ms Tcheuméo still had children enjoying her victories and her medal if remembering well, and their parents knew who not to thank.
Mega Tsunami
Emperor
Another interesting poll, this time from YouGov. Apparently 18 to 24 year olds prefer Le Pen to Macron by an astonishing 56-44. 
Not just that but every age group prefers Le Pen (over Macron) except for the 55+ group
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...ion-boost-marine-le-pen-18-24-year-olds-back/
Not just that but every age group prefers Le Pen (over Macron) except for the 55+ group
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...ion-boost-marine-le-pen-18-24-year-olds-back/
A French friend of mine sent me this last night:
"I will vote for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the left wing candidate ( the leader of La France Insoumise: Unbowed France) who is in the best position to defeat Macron and the far-right. I do not claim he is the ideal candidate but on the whole I agree with his political platform. He is close to Bernie Sanders.
Unfortunately the left is divided and there too many candidates. I am not optimistic at all.
You will find his biography etc on Wikipedia but I do not totally agree with what is written."
"I will vote for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the left wing candidate ( the leader of La France Insoumise: Unbowed France) who is in the best position to defeat Macron and the far-right. I do not claim he is the ideal candidate but on the whole I agree with his political platform. He is close to Bernie Sanders.
Unfortunately the left is divided and there too many candidates. I am not optimistic at all.
You will find his biography etc on Wikipedia but I do not totally agree with what is written."
He's the only one with a chance of getting to the second round. I ended up voting for him by default, but his foreign policy positions are IMO terrible. The rest of his policies only seem extreme because we're so used to neo liberals who don't give a crap about the climate or the part of the population that doesn't make 40k a year.
There's time for that to change.Another interesting poll, this time from YouGov. Apparently 18 to 24 year olds prefer Le Pen to Macron by an astonishing 56-44.
Not just that but every age group prefers Le Pen (over Macron) except for the 55+ group
Media concentrated in stopping Mr Zemmour (which believed he could capt both Ms Pecresse and Ms Le Pen electorates) growth and ridiculing Ms Pecresse as beeing a bad copy of Mr Macron to strengthen its basement.
That gave a bonus to the inconspicuous big candidates like Mr Melenchon and Ms Le Pen whose likeness rose.
Whoever between those two goes against Macron in the final round would then loose points in the two last weeks :
-Ms Le Pen is considered a poor communicant, and we're used now to have french public media plan documentaries about nazi evil deeds between the two election to support the classic propaganda not to talk about politics when we have such "center"-"far right" duel.
-Mr Melenchon is a stronger orator, yet considered agressive and is really not helped by some of its political mediatic helpers, nor by his communicative postures, often too much.
All the previous governments also used far-left gangs to undermine social movements, usable as a mediatic weapon against him
Many don't understand even in France why such a division. That's simple.
Those are three anti-capitalist parties represented in this election with Mr Poutou, Ms Arthaud and the leading Mr Roussel which are remnant of the revolutionnary communist dream (and its disparities).
They have as much in common with Mr Melenchon as Ms Le Pen, as Mr Melanchon is with Mr Jadot a leader of the new revolutionnary paradigm :
"Ecology", "multiculturalism", "antiracism" (while the only place where people got publicly denied acces in accordance with their skin colors these twenty last years in France was an antiracist happening...), "antinationalism", "social justice", "Feminism" (up to a new sexism rather than equality) are their main themes.
Mr Jadot is simply more liberal and more talking about pseudo-ecology while Mr Melenchon talks more about social justice and migrants place in France.
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I'm not going to comment on the whole post, but this is clearly false. Mélenchon is a sovereignist with a strong anti-EU (and anti-NATO) tendency. His EU stance is part of why I didn't vote for him in 2017 and only took my decision this morning.
Oh apparently this year no polls close before 7PM (used to be 6PM) so it's better to wait for the 8PM estimates : anything you read before that is mostly speculation.
Truth, his Sixth republic objective is already a titanesque work.
Mr Melenchon have a special stance with EU :
He NEVER wished to leave it, always stanced he would stay in EU, and with his newest programm only said if EU wouldn't change, then France would pay the fines where it would block.
Mr Melenchon is not a sovereignist.
Furthermore, if Mr Melenchon revised his copy with economic frontiers, he still favor lax control on human frontiers.
To finish with it, Mr Melenchon positionned himself as an anti-nationalist, recusing the concept of "nation" his ideologic movement associated with hatred, bellicism and war, appart from the far-right "ennemy"
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Snowygerry
Deity
La Libre Belgique gives 24 % to Both Le Pen and Macron - and 19 to Melenchon, apparently.
La Libre.be - Suivez en direct toute l'actualité belge et internationale, économique et culturelle.
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