French presidential election 2024

[innonimatu]

I'll create this thread because with Germany and Italy burdened with incompetent governments, France will be the country influencing EU direction during the coming years of crisis. If it can be directed at all. So this is bigger than France.

Macron is ahead on recent polls but won't win on first round. Second is Le Pen, unsurprisingly. But surprisingly Meéenchon is third and not far.

It is widely assumed that Macron will win reelection. But the second round is stills months away and lost of stuff is happening fast. He is not a popular president, just counts on whomever goes to second round against him will be less popular.

Having said this, I'm not french so will leave the thread for others who should know better what's going on among the voters there.

 

[Samson]

I thought is telling that Marine Le Pen's niece joined Zemmour. Presumably she would have been able to get a job in FN if she wanted, I guess she thinks who will win the far right vote.

The best option would be Melenchon beating both far right candidates because of a vote split, but I would not put any money on it. However the betting public seem to think Macron is a shoe in, best you can get on him is 1/12, with Le Pen at 27/1, Zemmour at 33/1 and Melenchon at 80/1.

 

[Akka]

Lots of apathy about the election. Basically, it's seen as Macron will win because he's the only one who seems to have a stateman stature even if he's unpopular. Also, all his main opponents had sympathy or even links to Putin, and that's not flying very well right now. Nobody manages to make people care - at least nobody that I know of, and that includes myself.
I'm probably going to vote Jadot in the first round (not someone I particularly like, but he's among the least unpleasant and at least promotes ecology, even if unconvincingly) and blank in the second (everybody that is above 10 % of vote intention is absolutely repulsive to me, yay).

 

[The_J]

But surprisingly Meéenchon is third and not far.

The best option would be Melenchon beating both far right candidates because of a vote split, but I would not put any money on it. However the betting public seem to think Macron is a shoe in, best you can get on him is 1/12, with Le Pen at 27/1, Zemmour at 33/1 and Melenchon at 80/1.

mmhh... what polls show Melenchon 3rd?
I think the general opinion right now is that the final will be either between Macron and Le Pen, or Macron and Pecresse. I don't think anyone sees the left candidates getting considerable amount of votes. A recent attempt to make a united left front failed. As Samson predicts there'll probably a massive vote split on the (center)-right, which will probably be key if Pecresse or Le Pen or Zenmour go to the finals.


EDIT:
https://www.thelocal.fr/20220307/re...idates-for-the-french-presidential-elections/ list of all candidates:

Spoiler :

Emmanuel Macron (centrist, La République en Marche)

Marine Le Pen (far right, Rassemblement National)

Eric Zemmour (far right, Reconquête)

Jean-Luc Melenchon (far left, La France Insoumise)

Valérie Pécresse (centre-right, Les Républicains)

Yannick Jadot (green, Europe Ecologie les Verts)

Fabien Roussel (communist, Parti Communiste)

Anne Hidalgo (centre left, Parti Socialiste)

Jean Lassalle (Résistons)

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (sovereignist, Debout La France)

Philippe Poutou (far left, Nouveau parti anticapitaliste)

Nathalie Artaud (far left, Lutte Ouvrière)

 

[innonimatu]

A recent one in Le Figaro. But I'm not following closely the polls in France. Hard to have any enthusiasm for that election, even though it's important.

 

[Henri Christophe]

I hope Macron win, he seems to be a good guy.

Le pen is far right? I really hope she dosen't win

 

[Ajidica]

I hope Macron win, he seems to be a good guy.

Le pen is far right? I really hope she dosen't win

I mean, Macron is too smarmy for his own good.

Spoiler political compass meme :

Isn't le Pen now the face of the 'moderate' right wing now that Zemmour got involved?

 

[Gorbles]

Macron is meh, but in my non-French opinion, he's better than most of the alternatives. Which isn't praise of Macron, rather condemnation of the alternatives.

 

[The_J]

Isn't le Pen now the face of the 'moderate' right wing now that Zemmour got involved?

No, it seems they're pretty much on the same level.

The center right is still there, with Valerie Pecresse of Les Républicains (the party of Jaques Chirac).

 

[AdrienIer]

The dynamics are favorable for Macron and Melenchon right now. Macron gets credit (beyond what he deserves) for the handling of Ukraine, and Melenchon is gaining momentum like 5 years ago (although not as much). The far right is divided between Le Pen (still strong) and Zemmour (losing ground) with Pecresse for the "traditional" right imploding (and moving closer to the far right than ever). The rest of the left is between 0 and 5% currently, so non entities when it comes to having an impact on the final result.
What will decide who will qualify for the second round with Macron is wether the far right voters will coalesce around someone by fear of letting a leftist get to the second round (the opposite is currently happening on the left).

 

[innonimatu]

I'm starting to suspect that, as with covid, I'm not pessimistic enough about the stupidity of our politicians here in Europe.

Looking at the situation is Spain already, the priors in France, the energy crunch, the quick inflation - Macron is at his peak popularity already. Two mounts for the second round - enough time for things to boil in France. Whomever goes to second round against him is likely to win out of voter's spite.

 

[AdrienIer]

Polls show Macron winning at least 60-40 against everyone else in the second round. There's little doubt he's going to win at this point.

 

[Samson]

The French right and Putin

Surely the current news must be hurting them, right?

The far right in Europe has long been infatuated with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, with its leaders calling him “a true patriot” and “defender of European values”, even “the best statesman currently on earth”.

French opposition leader Marine Le Pen, the de facto spokesperson of the European far right, has been rising in the polls despite her ongoing support and admiration for the Russian leader.

In 2014, Le Pen endorsed the Kremlin’s referendum in the Russian-annexed Crimea as legitimate and has been accused of being a Putin stooge. In 2015, reports in the French press based on hacked Kremlin records showed that Le Pen may have lent her support to Putin’s annexation in return for a nine million euro ($9.9m) loan from a Russian bank – although the allegations of a quid pro quo have never been proved.

The same goes for the more extreme far-right presidential candidate, Eric Zemmour, who in 2018 had wished for a “French Putin” – one who could stand up to the intellectual elites and reverse France’s decline. He may have condemned the Russian invasion, but he also claimed that “if Putin is guilty, the West is responsible” for the Ukraine war.

These two far-right candidates are about to receive the support of almost one-third of the French electorate, well above the expected support for Macron in the first round.
​

Fractured France

A remarkable study about voting patterns in the Paris region in 2017 has shown that the closer and more connected people are to Paris by train, the more likely they were to vote for Macron, and those farthest and least connected voted in their majority for Le Pen, with noticeable change every five kilometres.
​

 

[Akka]

The French right and Putin

Surely the current news must be hurting them, right?

Not enough, sadly.

As I said before, the problem is that this election is just... disheartening. I think we'll see the highest level of abstention ever.

 

[The_J]

It seems so far that only Zenmour has been losing in popularity, whereas the other 2 of the 3 Moscowteers (not my invention ^^; Le Pen and Melenchon) seem to be getting out of this without much damage.
Sadly.

Fractured France

A remarkable study about voting patterns in the Paris region in 2017 has shown that the closer and more connected people are to Paris by train, the more likely they were to vote for Macron, and those farthest and least connected voted in their majority for Le Pen, with noticeable change every five kilometres.
​

Oh, that makes sense, although this is surely a correlation, not a causation.
The further away from a train station, the more rural the area. So this is basically a urban/rural divide.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Things are looking quite interesting. Apparently Macron has done a Boris and refused to appear on TV debates. (Maybe he is too busy chatting to his mate Putin.)

I read recently that Le Pen is a ‘much softer Le Pen’ nowadays. IIRC the PM even accused her of being soft on immigrants!

A recent poll has Macron on 26.5, Le Pen on 23 and Melenchon on 17% in the first round.

The interesting bit is that in the final play-off, Macron would only win by 51.5 – 48.5.

https://harris-interactive.fr/opini...ur-lelection-presidentielle-de-2022-vague-40/

 

[Zardnaar]

Macron is meh, but in my non-French opinion, he's better than most of the alternatives. Which isn't praise of Macron, rather condemnation of the alternatives.

There's no real left wing in France afaik at least in presidential elections.

 

[Dadais]

As I said before, the problem is that this election is just... disheartening. I think we'll see the highest level of abstention ever.

Why wouldn't we ?

Most laws are now issued from UE (thus from Germany, US's protectorate and from ploutocratic powers).
All candidates are promising more wealth dispite the ecologic urge and the incompatibility of the two.

French people don't wanna loose their wealth earned from the sell of their sovreignty thus their liberty.
Thus, why bother voting for a local governor when much of promises are revealed each time to be lies ?

In the end, why voting when media are massively influencing the final vote with sondage fabrics, owned political orientations and time allocated treacheries ?

That said, I'll still vote.
Not for mr Jadot or mr Melanchon which are claiming to push ecology yet gives massively anti-ecologic programs.
Not for mr Macron or ms Pecresse who are stupid US' dogs warmongers when neutrality in view of a continental cooperation would be far more benefical both for europe AND peace, wrongdoing people who uses emotions distributed by a belligerent propaganda without taking the necessary time to investigate on their tiny personnal electoral advantage.

Those are few, those who are really willing to push further French Republic ideals in this election.

 

[AdrienIer]

IIRC the PM even accused her of being soft on immigrants!

Minister of the interior, but close enough.

There's no real left wing in France afaik at least in presidential elections.

???
Mélenchon is definitely left wing, and posed to finish 3rd in this election. If you don't classify him as left wing for some reason, you can point to Yannick Jadot (greens), Anne Hidalgo (socialist party) and Fabien Roussel (communist party) that are clearly classified as left wing.

 

[Akka]

There's no real left wing in France afaik at least in presidential elections.

We're not the US, we have a significant left-wing culture.
The problem these years is that the left has completely fractured, hence scattering the vote into lots of tiny and irrelevant parties, and it seems to get far too much inspiration from, well, the US, leading to losing their core electorate to the profit of the far-right.