Future of Belarus - Poland and EU or Russia?

[Domen]

Many Belarussians nowadays support an idea of reuniting with Poland in a confederation and joining the EU this way:

http://www.arche.by/by/page/ideas/9744

http://www.bramaby.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=731

http://www.bramaby.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=732

Around 50% of the Belarussian society also want their state to become part of the European Union. If we take into consideration that Russian minority is about 10% in Belarus (and they are overhelmingly against this idea), then 56% of Belarussians want to join the European Union - a good alternative for Lukashenko's oppressive and pro-Russian dictatorship.

However - Lukashenko is still enslaving the people of Belarus:

http://www.heritage.org/index/country/belarus

Belarus is one of only two European economies to earn the designation “repressed.” Pervasive state controls persist in many economic areas, and widespread state investment and redistribution activities have stifled progress in the development of a modern diversified economy. Overall progress in business reform has been uneven, and the small private sector remains marginalized. Policy reform is urgently needed to open markets and improve productivity. The state has reintroduced price-control measures and installed export controls.

With poor protection of property rights and high levels of corruption, Belarus lacks the foundations on which to build functioning markets. Dictatorial governance, an ineffective judiciary, and time-consuming bureaucracy leave prospective entrepreneurs with little hope of success.

Belarus is commonly referred to as Europe’s last dictatorship. President Alexander Lukashenko, elected in 1994, continues to dominate all branches of government. The U.N. Human Rights Council has decided to appoint a human rights investigator for Belarus, and the European Union threatened sanctions following abuses of opposition figures after presidential elections in December 2010. Belarus’s industry and state-controlled agriculture sectors are not competitive. Russia maintains huge political influence in many aspects of the government and economy, and a significant percentage of Russian oil and gas exports passes through the country. Efforts continue to promote greater economic union with Russia and Kazakhstan through a customs union and a “common economic space.” Growing ties with Iran, Venezuela, and China have not improved the prospects for economic freedom.

Since his election in 1994, President Lukashenko has consolidated power steadily through authoritarian means, destroying checks and balances and dominating all branches of government. Soviet-era state ownership of land and government-controlled collective farms continues. The state is involved in many commercial transactions. Corruption is pervasive in both the private and public sectors, from the executive and judiciary to the police.

The income tax rate is a flat 12 percent. The top corporate tax rate remains 18 percent. Other taxes include excise taxes and a value-added tax (VAT). The overall tax burden amounts to 25.6 percent of total domestic income. Government spending has fallen slightly to 43.4 percent of total domestic output, with public debt hovering around 50 percent of GDP. The state remains highly dependent on external financing and subsidized energy.

Simplifying registration formalities and abolishing the minimum capital requirement have facilitated business formation, but the overall entrepreneurial environment remains hampered by state interference and public-sector domination of the labor market. The government subsidizes many basic goods and controls wages. The increased cost of Russian energy inputs and an overvalued Belarusian ruble have caused high inflation.

The country’s average tariff is low, but quotas, licensing requirements, and non-transparent and arbitrary regulations add to the cost of trade. Investment and financial activity are severely limited by extensive government controls. Limited reform of the state-owned financial sector has begun. In mid 2011, the central bank ended its direct lending operations to banks.

Belarussians who came up with the idea of a union with Poland are afraid if Poland wants to have a union with them:

http://nczas.com/wiadomosci/polska/nasz-news-bialorusini-ktorzy-chca-konfederacji-z-polska/

https://libertarianizm.net/threads/konfederacja-polsko-białoruska.2919/

http://historum.com/european-history/22023-ukraine-51.html#post1534642?postcount=508

I was more than surprised to read those Belorussian forums, I have gogle translated many of their posts. I had no idea that there are people who dream about reunification with Poland.

However, I dont think that we Poles at the moment are rich enough to "absorb" poor Belarus. Just think what a burden was for Germans to absorb Eastern Germany, which are still much weaker economically from the western Germany.

I found also interesting that those Belorusian think that if such idea of Belarus coming back to Poland would came up, both nations would have to deal not only with hostile Russia but as well with equally hostile Germany.

Belarussians have similar concerns:

To our editorial office, as well as to editorial offices of several other Polish newspapers, came Belarussian journalists and publicists, who want to propagate the idea [of a Polish-Belarussian confederation] and check what is the opinion of Poles about this idea. They claim that from their point of view this idea is not as exotic as it seems, because after the collapse of Lukashenko's Regime, Belarus is inevitably going to fall into Russian hands unless we somehow protect it from such a scenario before. Moreover, among all post-Soviet republics the anti-Polish resentment is perhaps the weakest in Belarus. But is this idea, invented by Belarussians, realistic?

http://www.bramaby.com/analiz/1-latest-news/194--konfedpl-

A proposed version of question in a possible future referendum / plebiscite:

"Are you for the unification of the Republic of Poland and the Republic of Belarus into one state as parts of a confederation, member of the European Union, guaranteeing the preservation of full equality of state power to both Polish and Belarussian nations?"

Here some discussion about this in English language (a few first posts are in Polish, later Belarussian and Polish members talk in English):

http://www.bramaby.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=732&sid=b68b603c8d3922285348a91aa4a02792

Here more about this concept of a Polish-Belarussian confederation (in English):

http://www.bramaby.com/en/intermarium/37-intermarium-news/201-rpeng

And here a Belarussian-language version of this article:

http://www.bramaby.com/analiz/1-latest-news/193-2012-04-07-20-09-44

http://www.bramaby.com/analiz/1-latest-news/197--rp-by-

More articles about the concept of "New Rzeczpospolita":

http://www.bramaby.com/analiz/1-latest-news/218--rech-summary-

Here more about this concept of a Polish-Belarussian confederation (in English):

http://www.bramaby.com/en/intermarium/37-intermarium-news/201-rpeng

Let's quote it directly here:

Rzeczpospolita?
Tuesday, 16 October 2012 00:00

A. Vorotnicky

Apparently, the time has come. As one of the well-known politicians of the past used to say: "Yesterday it was too early, tomorrow it will be too late." Hovering in the air, the idea of ​​rescuing Belarus from its currently obvious imminent collapse, absorption and dissolution in the vast eastern spaciousness, finally, has merged into a single, crystal clear and harmonious solution. In a nutshell, it sounds simple yet very provocative: Rzeczpospolita.

It's amazing, how just a year ago such an idea, hypothetically brought up by me in "The Phantom of the Grand Duchy," and discussed together with colleagues on Brama blog, had been seen not only ephemeral, but absolutely unsuitable for implementation at the time. And now, after only one political season, refracted through the prism of events of the past year, the idea of ​​Confederation of Belarus and Poland presents itself as an almost perfectly assembled puzzle for every one concerned!

First of all, I would like to examine the causes of emergence of the idea of ​​Confederacy, or, shell I say, of its transformation into a real prospect today, but not 15, 10, or 5 years ago, or even a year ago. The leading and decisive role, in my opinion, in such a development played the events that followed first elections in Belarus, and then - in Russia. What seemed like something of a distant future, as one of the theoretically possible scenarios, has rapidly and irreversibly turned into reality: the Republic of Belarus over the last year and a half de facto has lost its sovereignty because of the actions of its own leadership and currently it is only a matter of time when its formal incorporation in one form or another into the Russian Federation becomes a reality. We will not describe all the events that led to such a sad outcome: I believe that those who are not clear on the issue simply have not read as far as these lines.

This is precisely the reason why almost any alternative to what has been repeatedly and consistently disastrous in practice, is not simply the lesser of evils, but in fact, is the way out from the final solution of the "Belarus question." In this light the unification of Belarus with the Republic of Poland in a confederate state under the old blueprint of the Commonwealth, but with a modern framework and content, finds a completely new and fresh look. Based on today's realities, let us consider such a prospect impartially and in as much detail as possible, particularly - the doubts, fears and obstacles that raise objections about the viability of such an idea.

First, playing against it is a widely covered in the state propaganda notorious "genetic memory of Belarusians." Based on the statements of the Belarusian officialdom, the press, the things that taught to children and young people in today’s Belarus education system, Belarusians will recall (or will have to remember) the centuries of living together with the Poles in the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, and then "under the Crown" as the periods of the Belarusian nation levelling, the eradication of Belarusian identity right down to the physical destruction of its medium as such. Of course, long-term promotion of these theses, to some extent, succeeded: a fairly large proportion of the population has firmly established a stereotype of the western neighbour as one of the occupier still dreaming, in the words of the Belarus official leader, "of the border close to Minsk." And all this is most certainly to drive the Belarusians in a stall, to turn them into cattle or at least into the second-class human beings.

Needless to say that to overcome such an attitude (cultivated, by the way, even during the Soviet era, perhaps “just in case&#8221 was absolutely impossible even a couple of years ago. Not the slightest possibility. Under the pseudo stable state of affairs and a semblance of the prospect to steer clear as an independent state between the Scylla of a string of domestic political and economic crises and Charybdis of unpredictably forever transforming Russia, the thesis of the confederation would look no more and no less than a betrayal of the national interests. Today, when every single national interest has been betrayed, sold, or collateralised such scrupulosity fells down like fake gilding. Today it is about self-salvation of the nation, therefore, the past and existing counter-theses, which destroy the previously established image of the greedy and treacherous Poland, have no doubt far more influence than ever before. Our objective is to formulate and convey them to the doubters, and that is the first priority on our to do list.

The second and more serious obstacle, not only in implementation, but even in promotion of the idea is an immediate, hard and uncompromising counter action by Russia. Neo-imperial aspirations of the rapidly becoming authoritarian eastern neighbour are at a fault with any frivolity of freethinking in the post-Soviet space, and even more so in a hurry to please newly whacked out Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. There is no doubt that the Russian establishment will make every possible effort to prevent any action in this direction, including by hands of de facto puppet Belarusian regime. And if concerns about the rejection of the idea of Confederation by society are solvable through counter-propaganda and ideological influence, the neo-imperialist process of absorption from the east can only be neutralized by a speedy dissemination and adoption of the idea of ​​confederalism among the equally global players: the EU, the USA and probably China.

The third stumbling block is related to the views on the idea of Confederation within Poland itself. At first glance, may that be an attractive reincarnation of long-cherished desire to restore the former greatness? At the same time, Polish community is well aware of the danger in the modern realities of being accused of "absorption" or "Annexation" of the foreign territories. It is also important to address concerns of appearing under the shell of the common state of an unstable, Fronde like region, and even a kind of "pseudo Chechnya." But if the above controversy is almost fully resolved by a wisely and carefully articulated form of the Confederacy, with a clear delineation of rights and obligations of the parties entering into it, the fear of economic nature, at a first glance, seem almost insurmountable.

Nevertheless, I take the liberty to say that in today's realities the economic problems of the proposed Confederation will retreat into the background, yielding the palm to the moral, political and other intangible costs, inevitably arising once the project gets into implementation stage. In today's actively transforming world the economy, however vigorously presented as the cornerstone of everything, acts merely as a smoke screen. The examples of absolutely economically unjustified actions and, speaking the language of accounting, known to be loss-making operations by the world players are abound. In a situation where the absolute uncertainty prevails over the methods and results of the future value ​​of economic necessities of the world today (a world currency, oil, gas and even gold), there will inevitably come to the fore some other sets of values to measure influence of the world powers such as control over the useful areas of life, possession of human resources, access to fresh water etc. All of this will make enough counterweight to fears about potential economic failure of the proposed state entity.

Do not underestimate the opposition and the realization of the idea of ​​Confederation by the current regime in Belarus. There is no doubt that the completely dependent on the political will of Russia ruling class of Belarus, and in particular its highest echelon, will be forced to play on the side of the main opponent of the project, who most certainly will be Russia. However, the oppressive awareness of dependence and well-known personal European economic interests of the top Belarusian officials deny their actions at least sincerity, and at best those interests will force them to work in the field of non-proliferation of confederative ideas with their “hands on the floor,” or they may even subtly encourage them to take this idea as an element of their favourite "multi-vector pendulous policy." Even today, Belarus authorities strenuously seek reference points, which could steer the much talked-about "Western vector", and in such conditions, the resistance to any "pro-Western" ideas will not be as fatal as, for example, six months ago.

In summary, it seems timely to open the most wide-ranging discussion in society - both in Belarus and in Poland - on the subject. Any manifestation of the topic - from the discussion of moral issues to development of road maps and technical elements of the Confederation - will help promote the idea and fix it on the agenda. I propose to bring the issue of Belarus and Poland Confederation by the joint effort from the state of deaf silence to the forefront of the Belarusian-Polish political discourse.

Can this project work?

 

[really]

It's the first I have heard of it

Belarus - 9.5 million people and 207,595 km2
Poland - 38.5 million people and 312,679 km2

How much of it is just the desire to be rid of Lukashenko and to have a functioning democracy?

 

[Omega124]

I support it just so that Poland actually occupies more of historical Poland. It shifted way too much westward over the past few centuries, especially after WWII, and its time to put Poland back in Poland.

 

[Kyriakos]

Yeah i can see that happening.

In the EU context, indeed

 

[red_elk]

I think, both Belorussia and Russia should join to Poland.
And Ukraine too, we all are Slavic brothers and should live in one state.

 

[warpus]

1. Belarus will never merge with Poland
2. Even if they did, what would the new country be called? Belaland? Polarus?
3. Belarus is nowhere near joining the EU. They need tons of reforms before such a move would be viable, not to even mention that they're pretty much in Russia's sphere of influence and that their government is rather non democratic.

Basically if Belarus ever joins the EU, it will be many years from now, and as an independent country not as part of Poland, Sweden, or any other country.

 

[Domen]

Russians are not happy about increasingly pro-Polish and pro-European attitudes of Belarussians.

They are worried about this - as for example author of this article in Russian:

The article is titled "Belarus at the crossroads":

http://www.segodnia.ru/content/125672

Google Translation of the Russian article linked above:

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&u=http://www.segodnia.ru/content/125672

Two excerpts from this Russian article posted above (of course the article is anti-Polish in its discourse):

В Белоруссии разворачивается вялотекущая война символов, сталкиваются два толкования истории – пропольское и общерусское (пророссийско&#1077. Благодаря активности польской ирреденты в Белоруссии отмечаются особенно громко и пышно трагические даты польско-русской истории (антироссийские восстания поляков 1794, 1830, 1863 гг., Польский поход РККА 1939 г. и т.д.). [...] С некоторых пор в республике принялись возрождать польско-шляхетские традиции: возобновились сценические представления в Радзивилловском замке, в Несвижской ратуше был торжественно установлен штандарт 27-го полка уланов Войска Польского, во многих областях отреставрированы польские памятные знаки. Часто это финансируется из госбюджета.

(...)

Литвинизм – искусственно созданная «теория» преемственности белорусской государственности от Великого Княжества Литовского (ВК&#1051. Белорусы в понимании адептов литвинизма – не белорусы, а литвины, потомки населявшего ВКЛ народа. Если литвинисты и готовы хотя бы частично признать правомочность существования белорусского народа, то его связь с народом русским они отметают. При этом часть литвинистов признаёт восточнославянское происхождение белорусов, но считает их политически менее успешными родственниками поляков, а другая часть отрицает восточнославянские корни белорусов, заменяя их легендами о балтском происхождении.

My attempt of translation:

In Belarus the list of national war heroes is gradually changing, there are two interpretations of history - pro-Russian interpretation and pro-Polish (anti-Russian) interpretation. Thanks to activity of Polish organizations in Belarus Belarussians are now commemorating tragic events from Polish-Russian history as their own tragic events (for example Polish anti-Russian uprisings in 1794, 1830, 1863, the invasion of Poland by the Red Army in 1939. (...) At some moment Belarussian people have begun to revive the traditions of Polish-gentry culture and tradition, scenic views of the Palace of Radziwills in Nieswiez were renovated and the standard of the 27th Lancers Regiment of the Polish Army was displayed there. In many areas of Belarus historical Poland-related memorials are being restored by Belarussians. Often it is financed from the state budget.

(...)

Litvinizm - artificially created "theory" of the continuity between modern Belarussian statehood and that of the old Grand Duchy of Litva (GDL). Belarussians in the understanding of modern Belarussian followers of Litvinizm are not like Belarussians and Lithuanians in modern meanings of these words, but are descendants of the people who inhabited the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Followers of Litvinizm ideology are willing to recognize the validity of existence of a separate Belarussian nation, but they dismiss all connections of this nation with the Russian people. In this part of their ideology, the Litvinizm movement recognizes an Eastern origin of the Belarussians, but they consider Belarussians as politically less successful relatives of the Poles, who have more in common with the Poles than with the Russians.

As you can see even Russians are concerned that Belarussians are rejecting the Russian-Belarussian "friendship"

So called "friendship", that has been imposed upon the Belarussians by the regime from Moscow for so long.

In this thread (very long one) you can see many photos from Belarus:

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=472239

And here index showing photos of which places are on which pages of the thread above:

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=472239&page=201

=================================

1. Belarus will never merge with Poland

It is not Poland and Poles who want to "regain Belarus".

These are Belarussians themselves who want to integrate with Poland and with the European Union.

This is self-determination of current inhabitants of that territory.

As for Poles - opinions in Poland are divided. Most Poles perhaps don't want any kind of federation with "poor and backward Belarus" - they think it would be a burden for Poland's economy, which already by itself is not in the best shape. On the other hand, they don't see the fact that an alternative is Belarus falling into Russian hands - and strengthening Russia, which is a threat for European integration.

But many other Poles would perhaps support this originally Belarussian idea.

Most Belarussians want a Poland-Belarus Union?

Opinions are divided around equally as far as I know.

Around 45% of Belarussians are pro-European and pro-Polish, around 45% (including 10% Russian minority in Belarus) are pro-Russian.

The remaining 10% are undecided.

However, the number of followers of Lukashenko and his pro-Russian course in Belarus is rapidly decreasing.

At the same time the number of followers of reconciliation with Poland and rapprochement with the European Union is increasing.

=============================================

Belarus - 9.5 million people and 207,595 km2
Poland - 38.5 million people and 312,679 km2

Borders of a theoretical Polish-Belarussian confederation:

520,274 km2
48 million people

Regarding this excerpt from that Russian article linked above:

Belarussians are now commemorating tragic events from Polish-Russian history as their own tragic events (for example Polish anti-Russian uprisings in 1794, 1830, 1863)

Because it is their history as well. Map of battles during the 1863 anti-Russian uprising in Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...prising_in_Lithuania,_Belarus_and_Ukraine.JPG

"Uprising of 1863 in Lithuania and Ruthenia" article (in Polish):

http://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powstanie_styczniowe_na_ziemiach_zabranych

Coat of Arms of 1863 anti-Russian insurgents - Polish Eagle, Ruthenian Archangel, Lithuanian Rider - all under one Crown:

 

[Domen]

It's the first I have heard of it

Me too, a few days ago.

2. Even if they did, what would the new country be called? Belaland? Polarus?

Normally - Poland and Belarus (or maybe Polish-Belarussian Commonwealth / Union?).

They are not proposing incorporation of Belarus into Poland (or inversely).

They are proposing only a confederation of Poland and Belarus.

Federal capital of such a Polish-Belarussian confederation would perhaps be Grodno:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grodno

Or Brest-Litovsk:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brest,_Belarus

Or Białystok:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Białystok

==============================

A promo movie showing the bright sides of Belarus:


Link to video.

 

[Domen]

BTW, there are more similar "uniting" initatives in the world - Turks and Caicos want a union with Canada:

http://thecaribbeancamera.com/?p=1485

But Canada doesn't want a union with Turks and Caicos apparently.

 

[Tahuti]

Borders of a theoretical Polish-Belarussian confederation:

520,274 km2
48 million people

It looks a bit like a bra!

 

[Traitorfish]

Wait, "reuniting" with Poland? Neither state dates back further than 1917, and they were separate to begin with. rolleyes

 

[Kyriakos]

Wait, "reuniting" with Poland? Neither state dates back further than 1917, and they were separate to begin with. rolleyes

All of north-eastern Europe is part of Poland historically. Seems legit.

 

[Phrossack]

The Russian government will do everything in its power to prevent the EU from spreading further into what it regards as its backyard and future territory, and the will of the Belorussian people will be ignored by Lukaschenko and Russia if it seems to be West-leaning.

As for an eastern European union, where's Gediminas when you need him?

 

[Lord Baal]

I support it just so that Poland actually occupies more of historical Poland. It shifted way too much westward over the past few centuries, especially after WWII, and its time to put Poland back in Poland.

Sure thing, but Poland has to give Silesia and Prussia back to Germany.

 

[TheLastOne36]

I really don't want Poland to have to subsidize Belarus.

But just so everyone is clear and not confused, most of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania's history is basically Belarus' history. Modern state of Lithuania was a backwater province of Lithuania called Samogitia, that at times wasn't even in Lithuania. The fact that Belarus and Belorussians "forgot" their history is quite sad.

Though there is a small group of pro-Western Belorussians that advocate for reviving their Litvin (Demonym for Grand Duchy of Lithuania) history and culture, re-establishing usage of the Lacinka Latin Alphabet for Belorussian, reviving previous state symbols like the Lithuanian Pahonia, etc.

I wonder how big that group actually is. To me it seems like Domen is greatly exaggerating their numbers.

 

[Traitorfish]

All of north-eastern Europe is part of Poland historically. Seems legit.

Eh? Poland only came into existence in 1918, 1916 if we count the German puppet-state, and the current borders were settled by 1922. It never included more than a portion of Belarus, and that only as a wartime occupation.

I mean, I suppose you could claim more expansive borders if you want to claim some symbolic, fantastical succession between the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of the early modern period and the Polish Republic of the post-1918 period- but that would be on the face of it ridiculous. We may as well claim that, I don't know, the Greek Republic is the successor to the Byzantine Empire!

 

[christos200]

Why does not Poland, Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic States join Mother Russia instead?

 

[TheLastOne36]

Eh? Poland only came into existence in 1918, 1916 if we count the German puppet-state, and the current borders were settled by 1922. It never included more than a portion of Belarus, and that only as a wartime occupation.

I mean, I suppose you could claim more expansive borders if you want to claim some symbolic, fantastical succession between the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of the early modern period and the Polish Republic of the post-1918 period- but that would be on the face of it ridiculous. We may as well claim that, I don't know, the Greek Republic is the successor to the Byzantine Empire!

I think this thread is more about Belorussians wishing to join Poland than the other way around.

 

[christos200]

We may as well claim that, I don't know, the Greek Republic is the successor to the Byzantine Empire!

It is.

 

[Ajidica]

It is.

Not sure if serious...