1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

Future Wars

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Kyriakos, Nov 15, 2020.

  1. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    58,942
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Although such a scenario can be canceled by various preceding events (including a massive world war), it may be possible that in a relatively near future (end of 21st century) the core parts of armies will be robotic.

    Such a development can actually help with other things, given war is the most serious (due to how lethal it is) business: antagonism in programming and counter-programming those virtually all-robotic forces has to advance way past what already exists, and this in turn should mean advancement in the needed systems of knowledge, such as math.
    I generally like the idea of robotic forces, as long as they won't be primitive (current drones) and so dependent on humans for managing. It will also allow for events like the one in the scifi story I HAVE NO MOUTH AND I MUST SCREAM.

    Compare with how useless any single individual is at war if we are dealing with something like napoleonic wars or ww2, and how potentially important a single - genius - can be in a fully robotic warfare.
     
    yung.carl.jung likes this.
  2. r16

    r16 not deity

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    6,408
    klaus Fuchs . Why you don't and won't have antigravity . (As in properly educated and with a gift of imagination , providing the falsity of "Jewish Physics" to the Nazis so that their anectodal stuff got buried in garbage after they were crushed into the dustbin and creating this massive rift between the non-Nazis . Seems he kept the Warsaw Pact up to date in theory of microchips and whatnot until he died , too .)
     
  3. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    25,960
    I think that technology has advanced to such a state that the days of their being particular geniuses whom single-highhandedly advance the various fields by leaps and bounds is behind us. If there are however entirely new fields of development not yet conceived then there could be some stand-out person, but as far as all the fields that already exist (including robotics and AI) there may not be that many more giants. Well, there will always be charismatic figures that get a lot of attention but I don't think they'll have the same technical stature as say Turing.

    All of the fields are getting much deeper, requiring more coordinated effort to push boundaries than ever before, and more resources to boot. Physicists used to make basic discoveries with table-top devices and pen and paper whereas now they often require supercomputers and megawatt-class machinery - things which require teams of scientists working in coordination, lessening the relative proportion of contribution that any one scientist can make to the field.

    The US and Australia are both developing autonomous aircraft which will follow a manned lead aircraft while it performs a mission and will act to multiply the force of the lead aircraft without putting more people in danger. So in essence each fighter or bomber will have its own small squadron of support aircraft that autonomously refuel each other (and the lead), screen for enemy defenses and attack targets designated by the lead in unison. These autonomous aircraft are the same size as a manned fighter-bomber and are a clear step above a remotely controlled or semi-autonomous drone.

    I think it will be a while before humans are cut out of the kill-chain (the decision tree which results in force being used) entirely due to legal challenges as much as technical ones. That said, if anyone one country fields fully autonomous killer robots first without an international legal framework around that deployment then all bets are off and it may become a new arms race as impactful (if not more so) than the nuclear arm race of yesteryear.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2020
    yung.carl.jung likes this.
  4. The_J

    The_J Say No 2 Net Validations Retired Moderator Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2008
    Messages:
    32,172
    Location:
    DE/NL/FR
    You assume that a) they're working correctly (never can be assumed) b) that people commanding them make the right decisions c) that they can't be hacked and d) that terrorists will not use them.
    All of that you can't assume though.
    That's why many countries are pushing to ban automated weapon systems, and also international experts, e.g.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technol...ts-outright-ban-lethal-autonomous-weapons-war

    EDIT: Site from the UNESCO https://en.unesco.org/courier/2018-3/threat-killer-robots

    This is a nice fiction video of what could happen. It's extremely scary, and hopefully will never come into existence.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2020
  5. warpus

    warpus In pork I trust

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2005
    Messages:
    50,834
    Location:
    Stamford Bridge
    We already have drones, those are essentially robots. You won't see any infantry robots running around anytime soon, if that's what you mean. It's a lot easier to build something that can fly around and get in tight spaces. It makes a lot less sense to try to build something that has to use 2 legs to stay upright. We don't have the technology to build something like that with guarantees that it will not just get stuck somewhere or be easily taken down. Our bipedal mode of transportation is not easy to replicate in a robot. But a flying drone, those can fly around, do intel, get in tight spaces, fire missiles. You can probably expect to see more and more of that sort of thing in our armies.

    Military engagements are also becoming less and less conventional. Robots running around a battlefield like in the Terminator movies is not going to be what the war of the future is going to look like.
     
  6. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    25,960
    Another front for future wars is in space, as well.

    The US Space Force is considering 'lunar patrols' of spacecraft which orbit about the moon and monitor the activity of missions launched by other countries. As the US, Europe and Japan inch closer to a manned lunar landing under the Artemis program, there is a real worry that the Chinese (and potentially Russians) will make moves to claim territory on the moon and enforce some sort of border. The US, under NASA, has moved to establish a legal framework which allows for the peaceful economic exploitation of the moon and other off-world bodies while at the same time the US military is preparing to counter potential Chinese moves.

    I think as has often happened in similar situations, the US military industrial complex will scare itself and the political leadership into taking action in response to half-imaginary threats and then getting way out ahead of the problem. This is what happened with the 'missile gap' in the 1960's and in a few other instances. I think this time, however, if the US is smart and sticks with a NASA-led international norm-setting and legalistic approach, they can set the tone for what is acceptable in space and potentially head off an arms race there. I don't think it is inevitable that deep space* will become a militarized zone but it is definitely possible.

    *Near-Earth space already is a highly militarized zone by every measure
     
    yung.carl.jung and The_J like this.
  7. Darsnan

    Darsnan King

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2007
    Messages:
    985
    In Syracuse NY the local airbase turned in their F-16s for Reapers back around 2010, and the local airport was the first in the US to allow drones to land and take off. Question: how much have you researched drones and where they are at, as well as near future capabilities/opportunities (like in the next ten years)? I'd done some investigating back in 2018 and even while I was doing research I was amazed at how quickly this area was accelerating technologically. I haven't kept up with this area of technology, but I'm sure its still accelerating away because all of the potential it represents.

    Personally I see drones/ robotic units as force multipliers, taking the place of the traditional frontline infantry, tank, and aerospace forces: one person can control a host of drones for an an entire sector, all linked back to the one central location that can immediately respond real-time to the frontline conditions being reported back by the drones.

    Personally I see the single largest threat/single largest driver to conflict over the next half century being the effects of global warming: as the planet gets hotter and the equatorial regions become less and less arable the inevitable conflicts over shrinking resources (specifically arable land) will become more intense. And I expect we're also going to see larger segments of effected populations attempting to migrate to more arable areas, and ignoring political borders as they go: it would be very difficult for current conventional forces to contain such events, whereas again using a force multiplier approach, drones could be used to assess and much more quickly counter a massive migration event.

    Exactly. And so it becomes all about coordinating all those individually useless individuals into an effective coordinated force, and the quicker the coordination the more lethal all those individuals become as a single unified force: with one individual coordinating a host of drones real-time this then shortens the chain of command of traditional forces, and because of the real-time communications provided by drones the response time is exponentially accelerated.

    D
     
  8. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    58,942
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Just to clarify, by a single person being important I did not mean that person creating stuff to promote Ai, but be in a position to hack into multi-million dollar projects and thus hijack them.
    Also, I was imagining a more human-free army force, where by and large if you can alter the code the army now belongs to you :)

    Another theoretical possibility is to infect the drones with some virus, and use it at some crucial moment. Then again I would personally like to see mass anti-electric systems weapons, which may go up to cancelling electricity in whole sectors of the planet. One has to suppose that it is possible (not with current tech) to alter properties of electricity itself in an environment, not just primitively take electricity out (which anyway you can do even now, by destroying factories/grids).

    Re future computers and AI, I think that they can be used to study actual machine properties and properties of some variable-based systems. They won't ever be sentient.
     
  9. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2006
    Messages:
    12,665
    There is no AI in the foreseeable future.

    Every weapon that is effective will be fielded, regardless of treaties.

    "Autonomous" weapons have and will continue to have a control vulnerability.

    War will keep getting more expensive, but tactics will keep adapting to the new expensive weapons.
     
  10. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2002
    Messages:
    23,315
    Location:
    Montana
    World war:
    Everyone has 3d printers at home making as many drones as possible.
    Everyone is tasked with controlling drone fleets from home as we make hundreds of billions of them.
    The drone fleets battle.
     
  11. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    58,942
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    3d printers can make drones, but you still need a program to run them and expensive material for special parts. Not all people will have the financial ability to become drone manufacturers ^_^

    On the other hand, it only takes knowledge to hack into systems which are indeed possible to hack into.

    Anyway, even now one has to suppose you can buy an existent (non-military) drone and arm it with stuff (at least in a very basic way).
     
  12. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2002
    Messages:
    23,315
    Location:
    Montana
    Everyone will have the financial ability in a rationed wartime economy. This isn't drone highlander, this is red vs blue/axis vs allies etc.
     
  13. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    58,942
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    Those special materials will no longer be in stores then (assuming they are now). Much like what happens with chemicals during massive wars - eg any sulfuric acid detergent, which you now can buy from the super-market, will not be there because all sulfuric acid has to be used in weapon production instead.
     
  14. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Hanafubuki Retired Moderator Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2001
    Messages:
    40,062
    Location:
    Albuquerque, NM
    Ah... but drones cannot pillage, rape, and loot. It takes real men to do that.
     
  15. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    58,942
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    They can, in theory. Maybe also a secondary drone can film it.
    Machines have no morals. Another reason to avoid remote-control of drones by neckbeards in some bunker.
     
  16. r16

    r16 not deity

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    6,408
    hackers are not single persons , considering the size of first rate programs that count these days . They are instead goverment employees with even fixed offices and even when they disperse they are still kinda helpless when the web goes out ... Too many viruses trying to hack each other or the more direct method of blowing things up . No , the internet is not free of distribution stuff , when you bomb the 21st Century post office , the internet does not move itself to water system or sewers of a city . Thinking small , imagining there will be hackers , even one single brilliant guy crashing down the juggernaught . More than willing to bet that the juggernaught will crash them first .
     
  17. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2003
    Messages:
    58,942
    Location:
    Thessalonike, The Byzantine Empire
    I just meant that a single hacker may take out smaller/not important sides. Like Turkey :p
    Hopefully it won't get to that, with the war only featuring serious sides.
     
  18. r16

    r16 not deity

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    6,408
    oh , ı was getting the idea , that was why ı was saying or not saying the logistics of the internet in your country would in the end be down to a couple of buildings .
     
  19. Lohrenswald

    Lohrenswald 老仁森林

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2013
    Messages:
    6,029
    Location:
    The end
    I feel kinda like more advanced technology will be harder to rebuild from damage, and that that ought to mean something.

    I saw recently a video of a missile that like fired up maybe 10 meters or so vertically into the air, then kinda rotated in place and then fired of in the like main trajectory. Thinking a lot of my own country I doubt we could make enough missiles like that quick enough for it to matter. Also like all sort of valuable materials would like be lost in the wreckage of the impact, let alone the work put in to make it.

    But I was also wondering what the point of such a missile would be. It seemed to me like just firing it from an elevated position would mean all that rotate in air thing would be unnecessary.

    I don't know what to conclude from this
     
    hobbsyoyo and Angst like this.
  20. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2006
    Messages:
    12,665
    Submarine-launched anti-ship missile?

    True enough, once the war gets total communications nodes will be destroyed. At least on the losing side. But in asymmetric and proxy wars, and most are, even the lone hacker can be a thing.
     

Share This Page