I was thinking over the random events in BTS and it occurred to me that they have always been a part of the game since a mine can discover a resource in all versions of the game. In trying to figure out the net impact on a game I tried to calculate the Net Present Value of discovering a gold mine.
My question is what is the equivalent Random event in terms of free money to discovering a gold mine at say turn 60 of a 660 turn game (Epic speed). THe nominal value is easy if you assume the tile will be worked for 600 turns it is worth -600 hammers and +4200 coins (and 1 happiness which is too much for me at midnight). However, if someone offered you 4200 coins at a cost of 600 hammers on turn 60 you certainly would sell the mine because having money now is better than having money later. However, at what price would you sell the mine or how much cash would need to be given to have the same effect on the game?
To start the calculation you first need to determine if the value of the gold compounds over time. Even this is not an easy question. The income stream remains constant and with inflation even effectively goes down. However, the value increases each turn due to your ability to tech faster than you otherwise would. I think the overriding factor is the teching advantage and the value should compound over time but this point is certainly debatable.
Secondly an appropriate discount rate needs to be determined to account for the fact that the value on turn 600 is less than the value now since there is no guarantee you will get to turn 600 and the gold should be a relatively smaller part of your economy then. Because the discount rate compounds over time the rate can at least be constant over time.
Any thoughts on this in the abstract or more specifically on how the random events influence the game?
The following is just some incoherent ramblings about the economics of civ that I was using to clarify some things I have been thinking about. Any comments are welcome.
Net Present Value (NPV) is a way to convert a future stream of income to a specific dollar amount allowing you to make an apples to apples comparison of what are really 2 different things. In the context of a civ game basically every decision made is an NPV calculation.
For example do you work the extra food to grow faster or do you work the mine to get a unit out faster? Basically one will have an immediate benefit that declines over time until it is even at which point the other strategy is even and then becomes more beneficial.
In this context you can think of food money and hammers as essentially the same thing since over time investment in food yields hammers or money and in turn hammers and money allow for more food by allowing more population either from buildings, techs or both. Fundamentally when you are managing your city you are trying to maximize this value.
My question is what is the equivalent Random event in terms of free money to discovering a gold mine at say turn 60 of a 660 turn game (Epic speed). THe nominal value is easy if you assume the tile will be worked for 600 turns it is worth -600 hammers and +4200 coins (and 1 happiness which is too much for me at midnight). However, if someone offered you 4200 coins at a cost of 600 hammers on turn 60 you certainly would sell the mine because having money now is better than having money later. However, at what price would you sell the mine or how much cash would need to be given to have the same effect on the game?
To start the calculation you first need to determine if the value of the gold compounds over time. Even this is not an easy question. The income stream remains constant and with inflation even effectively goes down. However, the value increases each turn due to your ability to tech faster than you otherwise would. I think the overriding factor is the teching advantage and the value should compound over time but this point is certainly debatable.
Secondly an appropriate discount rate needs to be determined to account for the fact that the value on turn 600 is less than the value now since there is no guarantee you will get to turn 600 and the gold should be a relatively smaller part of your economy then. Because the discount rate compounds over time the rate can at least be constant over time.
Any thoughts on this in the abstract or more specifically on how the random events influence the game?
The following is just some incoherent ramblings about the economics of civ that I was using to clarify some things I have been thinking about. Any comments are welcome.
Net Present Value (NPV) is a way to convert a future stream of income to a specific dollar amount allowing you to make an apples to apples comparison of what are really 2 different things. In the context of a civ game basically every decision made is an NPV calculation.
For example do you work the extra food to grow faster or do you work the mine to get a unit out faster? Basically one will have an immediate benefit that declines over time until it is even at which point the other strategy is even and then becomes more beneficial.
In this context you can think of food money and hammers as essentially the same thing since over time investment in food yields hammers or money and in turn hammers and money allow for more food by allowing more population either from buildings, techs or both. Fundamentally when you are managing your city you are trying to maximize this value.
