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Bundestag is a very sexy word.
German Bundestag Election
- Thread starter Godwynn
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Say_my_name
Warlord
Really? How does that work out -- from what I have read the Mixed Member Proportional system is broadly proportional. What changes are people proposing be made to the system?
the consitutional court did not rule the system or even the existence of surplus seats unconstitutional. What was deemed unconstitutional was that by some quirks in the ditribution of proportional seats getting fewer votes in a region might lead to gaining more seats. This is a very strictly technical ruling and the way the social democrats are trying to make this in issue pre-emptively is dishonest. Furthermore this is very unlikely to lead to a situation were indeed a majority in parliament is based on fewer votes than the opposition. What will likely change is the way seats are distributed in the proportional part of votes - i.e. what happens when a fractional seat should be allocated. There is a good reason why the consitutional court left time until after the elections: this was a strictly technical ruling on a very obscure part of the election law and it did expressly allow for surplus seats to be doled out. So while there will be whining by the social democrats if they are left out of the next government and the cdu rules with surplus seats - its not based on them being actually unconstitutional it would be based on them being sore losers.
If they had had real problems with it there would have been plenty of time to actually change the election law prior to the election and indeed the Green party had already started the legislative process with a proposal that could easily have been passed without the cdu since all the smaller parties would stand to gain from any such changes and would likely have approved. Of course the social democrats also profit from surplus seats (though this will be less so this election since they are losing badly and surplus seats are more likely to help a party that is relatively strong in a state - i.e. most likely the cdu/csu in all of germany and the left in eastern germany). [/rant]
for the uninitiated: the German system doles out half the seats in parliament on a first past the post system based on congressional districts and the other half based on proportional representation (i.e. based on the percentage of overall votes) - the proportional seats are distributed in a manner to ensure that a party will gain the percentage of seats it would be entitled to according to the overall percentage*. i.e. a party that wins 10% of votes should gain 10% of seats - however this distribution is done on a per state level - and it can happen that a party wins more seats in any given state than it would be entitled to gain via the proportional system - in that case it gets to keep those surplus seats.
*further quirks apply: a party that gains less than 5% nationwide and less then 3 congressional seats is not counted when distributing the proportional part of the vote.
If they had had real problems with it there would have been plenty of time to actually change the election law prior to the election and indeed the Green party had already started the legislative process with a proposal that could easily have been passed without the cdu since all the smaller parties would stand to gain from any such changes and would likely have approved. Of course the social democrats also profit from surplus seats (though this will be less so this election since they are losing badly and surplus seats are more likely to help a party that is relatively strong in a state - i.e. most likely the cdu/csu in all of germany and the left in eastern germany). [/rant]
for the uninitiated: the German system doles out half the seats in parliament on a first past the post system based on congressional districts and the other half based on proportional representation (i.e. based on the percentage of overall votes) - the proportional seats are distributed in a manner to ensure that a party will gain the percentage of seats it would be entitled to according to the overall percentage*. i.e. a party that wins 10% of votes should gain 10% of seats - however this distribution is done on a per state level - and it can happen that a party wins more seats in any given state than it would be entitled to gain via the proportional system - in that case it gets to keep those surplus seats.
*further quirks apply: a party that gains less than 5% nationwide and less then 3 congressional seats is not counted when distributing the proportional part of the vote.
The problem with the current system is, that there will be more surplus seats if there are many parties in about equal strength. Because there are now 5 parties who will savely enter parliament and the decline of the major parties this has become worse than it used to be.
But it's better than a total first past the post system and I think it's better than a true proportional system. The problem is just that there can be situations where a vote has negative weight.
But that making a government with the surplus seats is somehow undemocratic is just whining of the losers: In a first past the post system they'd get way less seats, but still nobody says that - say - US Congress is elected undemocratically.
But it's better than a total first past the post system and I think it's better than a true proportional system. The problem is just that there can be situations where a vote has negative weight.
But that making a government with the surplus seats is somehow undemocratic is just whining of the losers: In a first past the post system they'd get way less seats, but still nobody says that - say - US Congress is elected undemocratically.
curiously in 1997 the constitutional court in a 4-4 decision decided with the prevailing opinion that up to 30 surplus sets would not pose constitutional problems - of course since then all judges have been replaced - so its not altogether clear what would happen now - the current ruling of 2008 though does not indicate that they actually want to overturn that ruling...
Edit: actually the current system is prone to yield more surplus seats if one party is much larger than all others but still falls well short of 50% (since with first past the post for the congressional districts a party with 40% of votes and all other parties only garnering 20% or less could conceivably win all congressional districts and get 50% of seats even though they should get less in a proportional system) - so this election will see more such seats than many previous ones and most of those will go to the cdu/csu. However one mitigating factor is that there will likely not be any such surplus seats in eastern germany since the left and the cdu will likely split the districts there.
Edit: actually the current system is prone to yield more surplus seats if one party is much larger than all others but still falls well short of 50% (since with first past the post for the congressional districts a party with 40% of votes and all other parties only garnering 20% or less could conceivably win all congressional districts and get 50% of seats even though they should get less in a proportional system) - so this election will see more such seats than many previous ones and most of those will go to the cdu/csu. However one mitigating factor is that there will likely not be any such surplus seats in eastern germany since the left and the cdu will likely split the districts there.
I don't get why the Social Democrats did not press for a new electoral law as soon as the Constitutional Court made its decision. The possibility is not low that this element of our voting system could decide it. The polls already suggested one year ago that it could go down this way. The latest poll from yesterday predicted a tie (47 % vs. 47 %). I personally do not want a coalition in charge that would have no majority if it wasn't for this "technical" element. Let's hope, it doesn't play out that way. If it does, we're in for a constitutional crisis and I personally would not accept this government as my government.
Winner
Diverse in Unity
A constitutional crisis resulting from an electoral stalemate in Germany would have one good thing about - at least we wouldn't be in this mess alone...
Schadenfreude is evil, I know.
Schadenfreude is evil, I know.
It's not Schadenfreude if you're in pain as well.
The reason they did not is that the problem they claim to exist would not have been altered and they have their own horses in play here. While the negative vote effect (i.e. you get more seats with less votes - which is unconstitutional) can happen - it is quite unlikely to occur and will not make a difference in the majority. What might make a difference is the existence of surplus seats itself - but that is not constitutionally problematic - it is just an effect of our electoral system being based on a per state level and not on a federal level these seats have been ruled as constitutional by the constitutional court in 1997 and they have not changed that stance. What the social democrats are currently pushing is an attempt to create a constitutional crisis out of thin air in order to force their way into government even if they lose the election.
To summarize:
There is a specific technicality in the election law called negative vote effect that has been ruled unconstitutional.
There is the existence of surplus seats that has been ruled constitutional.
The social democrats attack the surplus seats by claiming falsely that they have been ruled unconstitutional and threaten to create a constitutional crisis based on their lies.
now a broader comment:
Its the second time this year that they show their utter disrespect for the constitution when it comes to parliamentary affairs - first they punish parliamentarians in Hessen for being honest about how they exercise their free mandate (and thus break all safeguards of the constitution to protect members of parliament from direct interference by their party) and now this. This is a grave breach of their former fight for constitutional integrity and they are right now the party that is most actively working against the constitutional order in Germany. They are trying to get rid of the free mandate and force a specific coalition in parliament by creating the appearance of a constitutional crisis that does not exist. This is essentially an attempt to overthrow parliamentary democracy in our country (yeah - I do exaggerate a tad here - but my point needs that I fear). They are working most diligently to ensure that at least I won't ever be able to vote for them again and need to get more involved party politics once I return to good old Germany
.There was a Green proposal for a new electoral law. I haven't studied it but its aim was to make sure that the law would meet the demands of the FCC. It was voted down by CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP this (!) summer. My question is: Why? At this point, the SocDems had little to lose. Yesterday or the day before, I read at the Spiegel site that even Schröder internally criticised the SPD leadership for not taking this chance and not siding with the Greens and Die Linke...
The proposal as described by the greens would have repaired the problem by removing surplus seats - which would also hurt the spd if they ever regain a similar strength as the cdu - another proposal floated would just remove the fractional vote distribution across state lines and would keep surplus seats (see here - caution: German language link). Another reason is likely that at that time they rightly saw it as a minor problem which would not change the outcome of the election - and only now decided to try to use it as cover for their attempts to discredit the surplus seats. Removing Surplus seats would increase the share of the smaller parties (except maybe the left which might get one or two surplus seats themselves). I am not really against removing them (although that would mean a change from a state level vote to a centralized one in the proportional part of the vote and I'd rather see other changes that would weaken the grip of the parties on their lists) - what I am absolutely against is making this a part of a political campaign to discredit the next parliamentary session.
Terxpahseyton
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I guess that would be my role to be played.
I hope very much that a coalition of the FDP and the CDU will be possible.
Die Linke: If they would get actually elected and had to implement all their silly ideas this party would be history. Because than people could see first-hand how much rubbish they talk.
SPD: I like many things this party accomplished in the past (despise some others) and maybe someday I will even vote for them. But right now they lack bravery in almost any espect - the partys desperate situation obstructs it.
Die Grünen: To reject anything old energy-wise and wanting to only focus on regenerative energy sources is stupid and undoable and they just have to be aware of that. Voting for a party which is so obviously ignoring reality is a good option for people prefering to do the same.
CDU: If they are unwilling to explaine plain and clear what they aim for I am unwilling to vote for them. Still I general like their sober attitude.
FDP: Love so many aspects of this party. What I dislike is the FDPs total resentment towards minimum wage (I am with the SPD on that one)
I saw an article, read it, chuckled at this bit:
I admire the relative civility of German politics.
Not like it matters, but I briefly briefed myself on German politics through Wikipedia, and would probably vote for the FDP were I a German citizen.
I admire the relative civility of German politics.
Not like it matters, but I briefly briefed myself on German politics through Wikipedia, and would probably vote for the FDP were I a German citizen.
Terxpahseyton
Nobody
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How so?I admire the relative civility of German politics.
I think if Canadians, US-Americans and Englishmen had to vote instead of Germans the FDP would get like 80%. Germans just have a complete different political mentality (which quite often gets on my nerves).Not like it matters, but I briefly briefed myself on German politics through Wikipedia, and would probably vote for the FDP were I a German citizen.
Even though I didn't vote for the FDP I have to say that the above mentioned political mentality sometimes drives me crazy as well.
but it would cause a change in the otherwise pretty static politics in Germany
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