[DE] German elections 2021

[uppi]

And he also really got into copying Merkel. Always kind of above it all (despite Wirecom et al), never really taking any real position or responding to the CDU's attacks on him. Watch his tone and the way he answered questions. He even did the Merkelraute once. I guess he just analyzed perfectly what the Germans really wanted: continuity. Because despite a whole lot of talk about climate change (and none about Foreign policy!), voters (apparently) just don't want to rock the boat. A tweet I saw phrased it perfectly: "This campaign season, the German voter wanted to shop around, flirt with radical change and look at what it would entail, they looked at all those exotic dishes on the menu, but in the end, they chose Bratwurst mit Kartoffelsalat again - what they know best."

Yeah, my take is that conservative voters did not like the conservative candidate so they chose the other conservative candidate.

Germany isn't as age polarised as other countries Exit polls, so grain of salt of course
It seems more the younger people prefer the non-traditional parties more, while the olds still like SPD or CDU.

But Left vs Right

Younger Left
Greens SPD and Linke
22+17+8 = 47

Younger Right
FDP CDU AfD
20+11+8 = 39

(Only 86% registered support in total for a listed party in the under 30)

Older Left
SPD Green Linke
35+9+4 = 48

Older Right
CDU FDP AfD
34+8+7 = 49

(97% registered support for a listed party for the older group).

So there is different support of course, and the parties within each category are different, such as socially liberal rightwing with the FDP. But Germany is still remarkably un age polarised. If you look at most Anglo elections, over 60 tend to vote way harder right.

It's a good thing Germany has avoided age polarisation of course, given how older the population and electorate is getting. Tyranny of the pensioners would be on hand if not for how well the SPD did with the older folks.

I would say, there is quite some age polarisation. Not on the left/right axis, but on the progressive/conservative axis. In the younger group you have 28% support for SPD+CDU compared to 69% in the older group. SPD and CDU ran both on the platform to keep everything mostly as it is with slightly different ideas how to fix some details. Greens and FDP both stand for "progress" and more radical changes to the current status. They just have very different ideas what "progress" is supposed to be and in which direction to go.

 

[Hrothbern]

I would say, there is quite some age polarisation. Not on the left/right axis, but on the progressive/conservative axis. In the younger group you have 28% support for SPD+CDU compared to 69% in the older group. SPD and CDU ran both on the platform to keep everything mostly as it is with slightly different ideas how to fix some details. Greens and FDP both stand for "progress" and more radical changes to the current status. They just have very different ideas what "progress" is supposed to be and in which direction to go.

Yes
Whereby noted for many on this forum that the Germans Greens are (meanwhile) quite different from what Greens mean in many other countries in the world.
The Greens in Germany started in the early 80ies as the typical anti-establishment party but are since taking governmental responsibilities in BW (the state Baden-Wuerttemberg) early 2000s in many ways as responsible and money-saving in their approach as the general mindset of BW, the heart of German car industry and an enormous network of industrial activities: frugal and hardworking paying in the highest amount of money in the general tax income for Federal Germany, paying most other states,

 

[Sofista]

I heard, but don't fully understand, that next January, Germany takes over the leadership of the EU.

It's simple rotation. Every country gets six months of presidency, one after another.

 

[Buktu]

While the SDP doesn't want to work with Die Linke

Die Linke has to few seats for a RRG coalition anyway, so SPD, Die Grünen and FDP or CDU, Die Grünen and FDP are the most likely. The FDP has more in common with the CDU/CSU while Die Grünen has more in common with the SPD. In any case this means Die Grüne and FDP will get lots of their agenda into a coalition imo.

 

[mitsho]

The FDP especially, as they are the ones going over to the other side.

It‘s also very telling that in the end, the Germans chose the highest authority figure they know to lead them: The Traffic Light!

 

[sendos]

This is probably the second most important election in the world after the US. I wish the Germans well and I choose the best candidate wins.

 

[Tee Kay]

All the media is talking about traffic light or jamaica but I can only see a GroKo working out again.

I just can't see Greens and FDP agreeing on anything enough to form government

Greens as largest opposition party isn't such a bad place to be.

 

[uppi]

All the media is talking about traffic light or jamaica but I can only see a GroKo working out again.

I just can't see Greens and FDP agreeing on anything enough to form government

Greens as largest opposition party isn't such a bad place to be.

I don't really see a GroKo (can we still call it that if they barely manage to get 50%?) working. The CDU has quite the incentive to try to collapse the government, force new elections and try again with a candidate who is not as disastrous.

 

[mitsho]

This is probably the second most important election in the world after the US. I wish the Germans well and I choose the best candidate wins.

But... you know they already voted? Sorry, I don't get your post.

All the media is talking about traffic light or jamaica but I can only see a GroKo working out again.

I just can't see Greens and FDP agreeing on anything enough to form government

Greens and FDP actually do have something in common, as shown in that they get around 50% of the young vote together. They stand for progressivism, for a break with how things have been done so far, for new ideas for the future, meaning the climate crisis, digitalisation and so on. They just disagree heavily on how these should be achieved: State (greens) or innovation (FDP).

So if they find a balance between the two paths, it can work. Also, don't forget the ministerial posts. A traffic light means Habeck being Vice Chancellor meaning the FDP gets the second most important post: Finance Minister - and by that also a lot od power with regards to European Integration. That's enticing. The Greens then would have Foreign Minister or a new Climate Ministry, while the SPD can focus on Social Policy and giving out powerful posts.

Sounds doable?

I also agree that a GroKo (new name proposal: Roulette, besides the colour it also fits the ups and downs) is not probable. Likelier is a Minority government tolerated by the FDP I feel. My money is on traffic light though.

 

[Buktu]

I don't really see a GroKo (can we still call it that if they barely manage to get 50%?) working.

It's the same for me. I dont see the CDU/CSU switch from major to minor partner in that kind of coalition.

 

[Tee Kay]

Greens and FDP actually do have something in common, as shown in that they get around 50% of the young vote together. They stand for progressivism, for a break with how things have been done so far, for new ideas for the future, meaning the climate crisis, digitalisation and so on. They just disagree heavily on how these should be achieved: State (greens) or innovation (FDP).

So if they find a balance between the two paths, it can work. Also, don't forget the ministerial posts. A traffic light means Habeck being Vice Chancellor meaning the FDP gets the second most important post: Finance Minister - and by that also a lot od power with regards to European Integration. That's enticing. The Greens then would have Foreign Minister or a new Climate Ministry, while the SPD can focus on Social Policy and giving out powerful posts.

Sounds doable?

I'd like to believe so. Maybe I'm letting the broken politics in my own country colour the view of what is possible overseas.

 

[Lohrenswald]

Mad that Merkel got to finish undefeated

 

[uppi]

Mad that Merkel got to finish undefeated

It fits her style. She knew when to end it while she still had the choice.

In other news: there are talks between SPD, Grüne and FDP as well as talks between CDU, Grüne and FDP. The CDU is straining to contain the power struggle within in case they still get the chance to form a government. But the cracks are showing. At this point, my bets would be on a SPD/Grüne/FDP coalition.

 

[mitsho]

And I advocate to calling that the the „Peppers“ coalition: What the greens bring is bitter (climate change ain‘t cheap), the yellow ones are sweet but ultimatively low calorie and the red ones colour everything they touch when cut.

 

[The_J]

It seems that Laschet, the candidate of the CDU, will be stepping down after the bad election outcome. So guess we'll get a traffic-light government (SPD/Greens/FDP; center-left/green/center-right-libertarian).

 

[Lohrenswald]

Kinda very general thing but like, something like a coalition between parties like cdu and spd would be unheard of here, and in addition to the 5 % limit, I kinda can't imagine how people in Germany can feel like voting is worth it.

 

[mitsho]

Kinda very general thing but like, something like a coalition between parties like cdu and spd would be unheard of here, and in addition to the 5 % limit, I kinda can't imagine how people in Germany can feel like voting is worth it.

Where is here?

 

[Buktu]

Kinda very general thing but like, something like a coalition between parties like cdu and spd would be unheard of here, and in addition to the 5 % limit, I kinda can't imagine how people in Germany can feel like voting is worth it.

How can voting NOT be worth it?

The german system might be a little bit more complicated than the ones in other countries but that does not mean its a bad one or it makes voting less important. Every system has its pros and cons.
If a coalition reigns obviously no party gets to do all they want. But again this can be good or bad depending on your position. If you liked the reigning party and their ideas you would dislike to have a partner with some different ideas. But if you did not like the reigning party you would be quite glad if they had your favourite party as partner.
In my personal opinion this is quite a good thing. It helps some smaller (but over 5%) parties since your vote on them will not be waisted and thus giving the voting people more possibilities. More parties mean more different ideas for a problem/topic so the voters can look for a party that fits their opinions best instead of choosing one of the big two (or otherwise basically throwing their vote away if they vote for a small party) who both might have ideas they do not like on important topics.

We had around 76% voter turnout so at least 3 out of 4 people thought it was worth it to vote.

 

[Lohrenswald]

Where is here?

norgay

How can voting NOT be worth it?

The german system might be a little bit more complicated than the ones in other countries but that does not mean its a bad one or it makes voting less important. Every system has its pros and cons.
If a coalition reigns obviously no party gets to do all they want. But again this can be good or bad depending on your position. If you liked the reigning party and their ideas you would dislike to have a partner with some different ideas. But if you did not like the reigning party you would be quite glad if they had your favourite party as partner.
In my personal opinion this is quite a good thing. It helps some smaller (but over 5%) parties since your vote on them will not be waisted and thus giving the voting people more possibilities. More parties mean more different ideas for a problem/topic so the voters can look for a party that fits their opinions best instead of choosing one of the big two (or otherwise basically throwing their vote away if they vote for a small party) who both might have ideas they do not like on important topics.

We had around 76% voter turnout so at least 3 out of 4 people thought it was worth it to vote.

Alright so one point you make is german system being relatively complicated. I didn't bring this up at all, and I don't have a big problem with it (I kinda think it's bad, but considering germany compared to the majority of countries today, I don't think it's a problem, besides the 5 % limit which is rubbish and tbh anti-democratic).

So if you take SPD and CDU, I'd be more enclined towards SPD. But seeing them ready to work with CDU tells me they dodn't really believe in what they stand for, or that they care about it. They're compromising with ideological oppenents. they're sellouts, you see

By this I would discount SPD entierly.

Die Linke in germany have some problems for me, and they got less than 5 % votes this time, and only hang on by a straw (I know about the thing that they got a majority in like 3 small districts keeping them in).

Say then die linke fell to only get 1% - 2% of the vote, which is where the party I support sat at a few years ago. Personally I'd keep voting, but I'd feel completely alienated from politics (which did happen to me from 2013 until last month). I can't fault anyone from not voting in such a situation

Since I learned about these cross-political coallitions being normal in germany, my opinion of the german people has fallen dramatically. I have a hard time respecting someone who stands up for it tbh (In fairness, I guess it's not that much worse than the majority of voters in the majority of countries, including norgay)

 

[The_J]

Alright so one point you make is german system being relatively complicated. I didn't bring this up at all, and I don't have a big problem with it (I kinda think it's bad, but considering germany compared to the majority of countries today, I don't think it's a problem, besides the 5 % limit which is rubbish and tbh anti-democratic).

So if you take SPD and CDU, I'd be more enclined towards SPD. But seeing them ready to work with CDU tells me they dodn't really believe in what they stand for, or that they care about it. They're compromising with ideological oppenents. they're sellouts, you see

So... these 2 points...
The 5% limit was introduced to limit the amount of parties in the parliament, to prevent a too splintered parliament. Because the more parties, the more compromises you have to make, which you don't seem to like .

No matter what government we'll have, there'll always be compromise. Center left and center right aren't really opposites, so it's not so that they're betraying everything they stand for .