Global Warming 'very likely' human made

[Gothmog]

The articles you posted were on a wide range of timescales and epochs.

Now you want to discuss specifically the ones that mention a 3 year time lag (and I assume a minimum in like 2020-2030 or something). I am aware of these and as I said a number of times, there is no mechanism. The amount of forcing is too small without a feedback. Other than that they are just exercises in curve fitting. There might be something there, and it will continue to be investigated. This is not arrogance just the scientific method. But seriously take a look at them (as I have) and you will see that they are curve fitting, and poorly done at that.

I have a problem with people disregarding any valid theory, that's not science. There are lots of disagreement within the climatology community, it just happens that CO2 causing an increase in tropospheric insulation is not among them.

Overpopulation is not a scientific issue.

Over fishing is not a scientific issue.

Habitat destruction is not a scientific issue.

Scientist can describe these things, and try and project their effects. Just as they do with CO2 emissions. But the decision on what action to take is political. I have not said what my political position is.

I do look at all the theories, I am well aware of the literature in the solar arena. I never said it does not affect the earth's climate. Quite the contrary, I specifically said it is taken into account in climate models. You even quoted me.

One of the first things any climate scientist learns is that to first order the surface temperature of any planet can be described by it's distance from the sun and the amount of insulation in it's atmosphere (i.e. greenhouse warming).

In the same post I also specifically said that there could be non-anthropogenic forcings. In fact we know there are. I can list a dozen if you would like.

What I have said about the solar forcings is that we know their magnitude in terms of direct action, i.e. W/m2; and we know that at the moment they are small compared with the direct action of greenhouse gasses. Albedo is a more interesting topic in this area.

What we don't know is just how the earth system will respond to these effects on long time scales, and I never said we did.

 

[Gothmog]

Can't get it to edit for some reason, but I wanted to ask you...

Did you look up where on the 11 year cycle we are?

 

[El_Machinae]

What do you mean when you say 'forcings'?

 

[Gothmog]

Hrm,

a forcing is something that affects, or alters, the global energy balance and so it 'forces' the climate to change. It can be expressed as a power per unit area - W/m2.

 

[Thomas1]

So....now that the people who claimed there is a Global Warming consensus have stated there is not a consensus and a plethora of scientist who aren't linked to oil and gas have stated we are more likely in danger of an ice age coming up. Do you still believe in Global Warming?

It is the coolest August I remember around here. Even all the flowers which normally bloom in the spring are in full glory. We're in our mid 80's when we should be in the mid 90's. And that is without a lot of rain to cool us off.

 

[sourboy]

Way to raise a dead thread from the cyber grave...

anyway, I think it's safe to say the Earth has natural changes to it's ecosystems, vast temperature swings, and other anomalies periodically... man may be contributing to that, but I wouldn't call us to blame as the majority factor. Still, we need to respect our planet and take measures to maintain the balance -- which we are certainly out of now.

 

[blackheart]

This is the problem with climate change theories, humans are too short sighted and think that a day of cool weather in a hot month means that change isn't happening.

 

[bhsup]

To counter, some people think extended periods of warmer weather means the earth has never experienced long-term warming before humanity was around.

 

[blackheart]

To counter, some people think extended periods of warmer weather means the earth has never experienced long-term warming before humanity was around.

Yes, but those periods of weather were when dinosaurs dominated the earth and Florida was under water .

 

[El_Machinae]

There's obviously a range of things that caused differences in the past. There will be a range of things which will cause differences in the future. But, just as obviously, sometimes you can cause a change by your actions. It's not rocket science.

 

[Holycannoli]

Yes, but those periods of weather were when dinosaurs dominated the earth and Florida was under water .

Not true at all whatsoever. The Renaissance was due in no small part to global warming. And they have found ancient mines in northern Europe under what used to be glaciers that have melted now but were thought to have always been there.

 

[Bill3000]

Not true at all whatsoever. The Renaissance was due in no small part to global warming. And they have found ancient mines in northern Europe under what used to be glaciers that have melted now but were thought to have always been there.

A renaissance and ancient mines before humanity? That's interesting.

Or more to the point, read what the post was replying to.

 

[Leonel]

Damn it, Thomas1! Stop digging up dead threads! Why don't we dig up the first thread ever posted on Off-Topic?

 

[BasketCase]

Frankly, I don't care if this was a dead thread--some fun new stuff popped up in it for me to mess around with. Such as:

Still, we need to respect our planet and take measures to maintain the balance -- which we are certainly out of now.

We humans built houses because we don't like living outdoors. We invented guns because we don't want to co-exist with various species who call us "lunch" rather than "humans". We invented penicillin because.....get the picture?

Sometime in the near future, the Earth is due to get about eight degrees colder, which will make life very, very unpleasant for all humans everywhere. Humanity will survive. We will simply be a little colder, a lot hungrier, and considerably fewer in number. This will be an entirely natural process, and humans will react in a very predictable fashion: we will try to change it. We will work to knock the planet out of balance and get the climate back up to where we like it to be.

 

[Mountain-God]

Sometime in the near future, the Earth is due to get about eight degrees colder, which will make life very, very unpleasant for all humans everywhere. Humanity will survive. We will simply be a little colder, a lot hungrier, and considerably fewer in number. This will be an entirely natural process, and humans will react in a very predictable fashion: we will try to change it. We will work to knock the planet out of balance and get the climate back up to where we like it to be.

Interesting that (correct me if I'm wrong) you decry current scientific consensus (such as it is) which tells us the world is warming and this is caused by human intervention, but then you want to predict cooling?

Exactly how is it that people expect the ecosphere to behave exactly as it has apprently done for millions of years when, in the last couple thousand (and mostly in the last 100) we have change about 80% of the Earth's landmass?

Whatever we debate as to the exact impact - debating whether or not we're impacting the environment is like debating whether or not driving a bulldozer around 80% of my neighbours property will have an impact?

But sweet God put it all here for us to use and He'll slap it all back into shap in - how long did you say it was until cooling?

 

[Holycannoli]

A renaissance and ancient mines before humanity? That's interesting.

Or more to the point, read what the post was replying to.

I did. And I countered with the fact that there were more periods of warm weather than just when dinosaurs roamed the earth, which is what blackheart seems to be saying.

I'm not actually sure what you're saying. What was the post replying to if it wasn't VRVWCAgent's post?

 

[Berzerker]

check it out

http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/30006/

 

[BasketCase]

Interesting that (correct me if I'm wrong) you decry current scientific consensus (such as it is) which tells us the world is warming and this is caused by human intervention, but then you want to predict cooling?

No, you're not wrong. You nailed it square on the head.

Science does in fact predict both of the above. Why should there be a problem?

Exactly how is it that people expect the ecosphere to behave exactly as it has apprently done for millions of years when, in the last couple thousand (and mostly in the last 100) we have change about 80% of the Earth's landmass?

Why should the ecosphere NOT behave exactly as it (apparently) has for millions of years? Kuwait cooled down by fifteen degrees for several weeks after Saddam set all its oil wells on fire. When the fires were finally out, Kuwait's climate went right back to the way it had been before.

Earth's climate is dynamically stable; nothing short of a truly Biblical event (such as an asteroid impact) will change the climate.

 

[sourboy]

We humans built houses because we don't like living outdoors. We invented guns because we don't want to co-exist with various species who call us "lunch" rather than "humans". We invented penicillin because.....get the picture?

Sometime in the near future, the Earth is due to get about eight degrees colder, which will make life very, very unpleasant for all humans everywhere. Humanity will survive. We will simply be a little colder, a lot hungrier, and considerably fewer in number. This will be an entirely natural process, and humans will react in a very predictable fashion: we will try to change it. We will work to knock the planet out of balance and get the climate back up to where we like it to be.

That's not all entirely true, and the point was that bending the rules is okay, but breaking them "may" lead to unfortunate consequences.

 

[El_Machinae]

Are there other things which people don't think causes warming? Blankets? Cuddling with a loved one? Turning the furnace on?