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Great Recession of 2020

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Kaitzilla, Apr 1, 2020.

  1. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    It is quickly sinking in that this virus is going to last all year and cause a horrifying economic impact to the living.
    This thread is for the economic fallout only.
    The possible coming loss of a dearly loved one or the medical/human side of this is for other threads.
    Spoiler :
    I keep losing track of this thing.

    Now that April 1st is here, a lot of bills won't get paid.
    Imagine the anger that will grow soon.

    =========================
    For US People:
    The Fed thinks unemployment in the USA might reach 32%. (Short-term of course)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/cor...-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html

    In the U.S., it takes 2 or 3 weeks to start collecting unemployment.
    Once you get it, it is typically half of what you usually earn, but the bailout package added +$600 per week through July 31st.
    It also lets furloughed workers, self-employed, and gig workers collect I think. :)
    https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/unemployment-benefits-amount-duration-32447.html

    Anyway, 2 or 3 weeks of collecting zero is already a big hurt, because if you normally only make 20% more than what you spend, a month off takes 5 months to make up.
    Debt is a soul crushing monster.
    I'm scrambling to set aside enough money to take 3 weeks off when I probably catch the coronavirus.

    The $1200 per adult coming at the end of April / early May is just a speed bump for a single mother with a 17 year old.
    A married couple with 2 younger children would get $3400. ($1200 + $1200 + $500 + $500)
    People living in expensive areas like Chicago or San Francisco are toast.
    Half-pay unemployment plus 600 per week or a $1200 check doesn't really scale properly.

    Interest rates may have dropped to 0% for the big players, but credit cards for regular people still have 15% or 17% interest rates.
    Missing a minimum payment can jack the rate to 29.99% instantly which is a big deal if you have an $8000 balance.

    Student loans can not be gotten rid of, even with bankruptcy.

    Medical bills are outrageous.
    Even if you make every premium, pay every deductible, and set aside an emergency fund for maximum out of pocket expenses, I think it is still possible to wake up and be presented with a titanic bill because the heart doctor was out of network.

    Miss roughly 3 mortgage payments, and the bank will throw you out of your house and sell it.
    The first 15 years of mortgage payments of a 30 year are structured to be mostly interest, so don't expect them to give you a big check for the difference.
    This link talks about equity during foreclosure.
    https://www.loan.com/home-loans/what-happens-to-equity-during-foreclosure.html
    =========================

    All the bartenders, event planners, waiters/waitresses, dishwashers, dentists, eye doctors etc. are going to get crushed if they fall through the cracks.

    It is affecting the whole world too, not just one country.

    The oil industry is also going to get murdered with so much demand destruction.
    The oil price might even go negative if we run out of places to put it.

    The global reserve currency, the dollar, might encounter problems if countries can't get them in large quantities by selling oil anymore.
    All those dollar-based debts might have to default.

    Are court cases going to be able to be settled in any kind of timely manner?
    What about juries?


    The peaceful pause can not last.
     
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2020
    stfoskey12, haroon, Hygro and 3 others like this.
  2. amadeus

    amadeus As seen on OT

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    I’m not the go-to guy on this but I’m more optimistic in the long-run and I think everyone else should be too with regards to the economy.

    All of this human talent and capital equipment is being put on hold, it’s not disappearing. And unlike other recessions that creep up on us and we can’t agree what’s going on, the coronavirus is an easily identifiable enemy that the public generally as a whole recognizes is the problem.

    I think the faster the coronavirus is quashed, the sooner we can all get on with our economic lives again.
     
    dusters, Birdjaguar and hobbsyoyo like this.
  3. Samson

    Samson Deity

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    A lot of the economic damage will be the deaths. Whether the loss of labour or consumer it will be a permanent loss to the economy.
     
  4. Farm Boy

    Farm Boy You gave me my own tail?

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    600 dollars a week... extra... on unemployment? I don't make 600 dollars a week now. :lol:

    Either way, not hoping to be laid off. There's health insurance to calculate in and that pushes it over.
     
  5. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    Not to be dismissive towards death, but in terms of the US work force/consumer pool 200,000 people is a very small drop in the bucket.
     
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  6. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    I am much more pessimistic.
    A lot of people on this forum probably aren't feeling it yet because they are comfortably working from home. :coffee:

    If someone on this forum I know is facing the abyss, private message me and I might be able to send you a small amount over Paypal for food to your email address.
    Or not.
    Either way, total secrecy.
    I've never used Paypal to transfer money, but I think it takes 3 days and costs 2.9% of the transferred amount for the sender?
    https://smallbusiness.chron.com/send-payment-persons-paypal-account-79333.html
     
    Socrates99, haroon, Cutlass and 5 others like this.
  7. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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  8. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Hanafubuki Retired Moderator Supporter

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    And if they are mostly those over 65, then they won't affect the work force substantially, will help SS and the transfer of wealth to Millennials. As a bonus Foxnews will lose viewership. Win win win.
     
  9. civvver

    civvver Deity

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    Unemployment has caps so if you make decent money you won't even get to half pay. In Michigan I think the cap is $350 a week. That's equivalent of making around $18,000 a year, so half pay would be $36,000 which a lot of people make more than that. It's basically minimum wage.

    The government boost is helpful, but this still needs to be a pretty short turnaround or businesses will go belly up. Sure everyone can look at a huge bank like wells fargo and say they should just eat the cost out of their profits but what about the mom and pop shop around the corner or the franchisee who owns a sandwich shop and has to shut down now, or the realtor who rents out a couple homes on the side and now can't afford the taxes on them?

    The government is going to have to do a lot more bailing out of the little guys and somehow get the big guys to pay for it.
     
    stfoskey12 and Kaitzilla like this.
  10. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    They're predicting 12-15% unemployment here the tourism/hospitality sector is in complete collapse.

    We have a shot at wiping out Covid but the borders will remain closed.

    The goverments borrowing 50 something billion, annual income is 93 billion.

    Right now it's 60% staying at home under lockdown. There's wage subsidies and unemployment for those that fall through the cracks.

    In the great depression we had 15% unemployment, GFC barely touched us, this is gonna hurt.

    On the plus side people gotta eat, we export food and there's gonna be a shortage of agriculture workers with tourists often doing it so work will be there.

    So the agriculture sector will pull us through theoretically just like GFC, 1987 and the Great Depression.
     
  11. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Deity

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    This is when it pays to have a good ag sector that you might have to subsidize in good times but that will be one thing in the US that should not fail us. Unless a dust bowl occurs. Could you imagine?

    Im really concerned about the economic devastation involved in global growth outlooks. I think 200k might be an accurate number here in the stars and imo that’s probably based of the “real” numbers of dead in China (their lies and their inevitable exposure is going to hurt them bad imo). I dread to think what will happen in the more “democratic” developing world. I’ve already started saying nightly prayers for what it’s worth for their sake. I’m hoping for the best.


    Maybe we could get the 3 trillion dollar infrastructure plan passed finally after this? Regardless I see increasing tax rates in the future or mobs hanging Wall Street hedge fund execs.
     
  12. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    Agriculture subsidies what are those?

    Market reforms in 80s killed that off.
     
  13. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    Only if you foresee full Dem control of WH and both houses of congress. The GOP is going to go full on "debt is the problem and it's all the big spending Democrats fault" as soon as the dust clears. It would get enough Republican votes to pass even with GOP control of the senate, but McConnell would never let it reach the floor.
     
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  14. IglooDude

    IglooDude Enforcing Rule 34 Retired Moderator Supporter

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    Brilliant and gracious, Kaitzilla. Leading me to make the same offer here.
     
  15. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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  16. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    Also world population is still growing by >1% per year, so this likely reduces world population by less than a year's worth of natural growth.

    Locally, what people have been doing is buying food delivery service gift cards for people who need them.
     
  17. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    It's only the 1st wave.
    Pandemics you usually get several waves
     
  18. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    An economist I listened to said that buying gift cards is a good way to support the local businesses you care about as it's effectively an interest free loan for them.
     
  19. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

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    Having done this a few times there is no 2.9% charge unless you use a debit/credit card as the source of the transfer.
    If you send it from your current account or transfer, there is no charge.
     
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  20. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    Box office totals in the US from Mar 20-26 was $5,179. In 2019, the same week generated over $204 million.
     
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