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Half-life of spies?
- Thread starter dr_s
- Start date
It depends on the total amount of EP (current + spent) you and the AI have produced towards each other. On the higher levels this ratio is hugely skewed towards the AI so the human's spies tend to vanish like farts in Sahara in just a few turns.
No, it doesn't depend at all on the EP spent towards the particular AI but the EP produced altogether towards the start.
The assignment of the EP serves only for active and passive missions but doesn't affect mission success or chance to catch a spy. Counter espionage and defending spies do change that, though.
And yes, it depends on moving. If you fall upon on enemy spies the odds of catching increases.
Here is a link about the mechanics: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=247719
The assignment of the EP serves only for active and passive missions but doesn't affect mission success or chance to catch a spy. Counter espionage and defending spies do change that, though.
And yes, it depends on moving. If you fall upon on enemy spies the odds of catching increases.
Here is a link about the mechanics: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=247719
dr_s
Prince
- Joined
- Dec 27, 2006
- Messages
- 540
Thanks for the link to Bhruic's post. That didn't turn up in my searching. I'll try to summarize what I learned in a way that makes sense to me, then answer my own question. Someone please let me know if I make any mistakes.
There are five things that affect the detection probability when you have a spy in a rival's territory:
(1) Open border status.
(2) Number of espionage points you and your rival have generated during the game.
(3) Whether there is an rival spy or security bureau on the same tile.
(4) Whether the rival has conducted a counterespionage mission.
(5) Whether your spy has moved or shares a tile with more of your own spies.
Assuming you have open borders, the base probability of being detected is 0.025*S/(S+1), where S is the ratio of the EP generated by your rival to the EP you have generated. If you have generated the same number of EP as your rival, then S=1, and S/(S+1)=0.5. If your rival has generated more, S/(S+1) will be greater than 0.5 (but less than 1) and if you have generated then S/(S+1) will be between 0 and 0.5. Note that this is all the EP generated over the whole game, no matter how they are targeted among your rivals.
So, if S=1, then the base probability of being detected is 0.0125 per turn. In that case, your spy's half-life is about 55 turns. This assumes open borders and that none of the (3) through (5) is met. If S=3, then the base probability is 0.01875, and the half-life is 36 turns. If you have generated more EP, let's say S=1/3, then the base probability is 0.00625 and the half-life is 110 turns.
Conditions (3) through (5) modify this probability as follows:
(3) If there is an enemy spy or security bureau on the same tile, add 0.015.
(4) If your rival has conducted a counterespionage mission, add 0.020.
(5) If your spy has moved or shares a tile with more of your own spies, add 0.015.
So if you've moved or share a tile with another spy (yours or theirs), the probability of detection is 0.0275 (S=1), and the half-life is 24 turns. If S=3, the probability is 0.03375 and the half-life is 20 turns. These numbers will be typical of the half-life of your spy in most games if he's just wandering around (and you have open borders with the rival). Of course if you have more EP, let's say S=1/3 again, then these become better, with a base probability of 0.02125 and a half-life of 32 turns.
If the rival has also performed a counterespionage mission, these become p=0.0475 and 14 turns (S=1), p=0.05375 and 12 turns (S=3), and 0.04125 and 16 turns (S=1/3).
What if you don't have open borders? Then you multiply all the above probabilities above by 2.5. This effectively cuts your half-life by a factor of 2.5, so in the worst case scenario above, it will be just 5 turns.
Note: half-life is the amount of time your spy has before there's a 50% chance that he will be detected. Put another way, 50% of your spies will be detected before the half-life has passed. Of the remaining, 50% will last a second-half life.
There are five things that affect the detection probability when you have a spy in a rival's territory:
(1) Open border status.
(2) Number of espionage points you and your rival have generated during the game.
(3) Whether there is an rival spy or security bureau on the same tile.
(4) Whether the rival has conducted a counterespionage mission.
(5) Whether your spy has moved or shares a tile with more of your own spies.
Assuming you have open borders, the base probability of being detected is 0.025*S/(S+1), where S is the ratio of the EP generated by your rival to the EP you have generated. If you have generated the same number of EP as your rival, then S=1, and S/(S+1)=0.5. If your rival has generated more, S/(S+1) will be greater than 0.5 (but less than 1) and if you have generated then S/(S+1) will be between 0 and 0.5. Note that this is all the EP generated over the whole game, no matter how they are targeted among your rivals.
So, if S=1, then the base probability of being detected is 0.0125 per turn. In that case, your spy's half-life is about 55 turns. This assumes open borders and that none of the (3) through (5) is met. If S=3, then the base probability is 0.01875, and the half-life is 36 turns. If you have generated more EP, let's say S=1/3, then the base probability is 0.00625 and the half-life is 110 turns.
Conditions (3) through (5) modify this probability as follows:
(3) If there is an enemy spy or security bureau on the same tile, add 0.015.
(4) If your rival has conducted a counterespionage mission, add 0.020.
(5) If your spy has moved or shares a tile with more of your own spies, add 0.015.
So if you've moved or share a tile with another spy (yours or theirs), the probability of detection is 0.0275 (S=1), and the half-life is 24 turns. If S=3, the probability is 0.03375 and the half-life is 20 turns. These numbers will be typical of the half-life of your spy in most games if he's just wandering around (and you have open borders with the rival). Of course if you have more EP, let's say S=1/3 again, then these become better, with a base probability of 0.02125 and a half-life of 32 turns.
If the rival has also performed a counterespionage mission, these become p=0.0475 and 14 turns (S=1), p=0.05375 and 12 turns (S=3), and 0.04125 and 16 turns (S=1/3).
What if you don't have open borders? Then you multiply all the above probabilities above by 2.5. This effectively cuts your half-life by a factor of 2.5, so in the worst case scenario above, it will be just 5 turns.
Note: half-life is the amount of time your spy has before there's a 50% chance that he will be detected. Put another way, 50% of your spies will be detected before the half-life has passed. Of the remaining, 50% will last a second-half life.
