Housing Bubble Popped?

[Zardnaar]

A very slow start to the year for Barfoot & Thompson as sales volumes & prices tumble

Barfoot & Thompson's median selling price down $240,000 from its November 2021 peak

www.interest.co.nz

Dumbe question but what does this look like to you? NZ has never really had a contraction in house prices at least for a few decades even then it was debateable.

In late 2021 prices topped out close to 700k USD for a house. My reasonably poor city/suburb was in the 400-500k usd in the cheapest city in the country.

California prices Colorado wages.

Anyway this is new for us. On Reddit people wanting prices to drop for ages but now they're complaining they can't even get a loan to buy said house or the right may win the next election.

Anyone experienced an actual bubble burst before what does this look like? GFC didn't effect Australasia or China to much. We bought our house 2919 29% deposit paid off January 2020.

 

[Farm Boy]

During Savings and Loan in the 80s, the prices shrunk enough that the land which stood as its own collateral lost value enough that it "was no longer adequate worth" to continue on and the banks fired up massive repossessions and government backed redistributions to their class. That happened in 2008 with residential markets. The prairie ate **** in the 80s and Main Street ate **** in the aughts, Wall Street both times complained that its caviar wasn't increasing in quality as fast as it had hoped. Washington took pity on Wall Street.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Prices in the UK are showing a slight month on month decline.

 

[Plains-Cow]

I guarantee you that the housing bubble has not popped.

 

[Farm Boy]

Have the gold seller commercials flipped from "buy gold, a true investment!" to "sell that usless old gold from your Nana!"

That's too late a sign, but pretty reliable that everything is already screwed.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

The US at least does not have a housing bubble, it has a massive housing shortage, so there’s nothing to pop. Prices will be high as long as that problem exists.

 

[Zelig]

California prices Colorado wages.

I’d point out that wages in Colorado are only marginally lower than in California at worst, and depending on source, may be greater than California’s by now: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=249&eid=259515&od=#

 

[Zardnaar]

The US at least does not have a housing bubble, it has a massive housing shortage, so there’s nothing to pop. Prices will be high as long as that problem exists.

They don't climb forever and interest rates are going up.

Rest of world's housing problems similar to BZ just started earlier.

Interest rates going bonkers before it goes completely bonkers might flatten it relative to NZ (two years of 20%+ hikes, prices doubled in 7 years)

 

[uppi]

Prices have gone down a bit, interest rates have increased, so for a typical financing plan, the cost has not changed much or even gone up. Sure, if you have a lot of cash on hand, you could now afford more, but who has that?

A popped bubble would mean that the cost decreased but there would still be no buyers.

 

[Zardnaar]

Prices have gone down a bit, interest rates have increased, so for a typical financing plan, the cost has not changed much or even gone up. Sure, if you have a lot of cash on hand, you could now afford more, but who has that?

A popped bubble would mean that the cost decreased but there would still be no buyers.

Here it's xashed up oncvestirs have cash.

The markets down by 200k+ and still falling.

 

[Birdjaguar]

The markets down by 200k+ and still falling.

Generally good for owners living in their homes and bad for investors and speculators.

 

[Zardnaar]

Generally good for owners living in their homes and bad for investors and speculators.

Well here some investors started years ago so they own multiple properties freehold.

New investors speculators, real estate agents and first home buyers with negative equity that can't afford the mortgage are screwed

 

[Joij21]

Depends on a lot of things wether it's good or bad.

If you're old and wanted to downsize and use the cash to live off dividends in retirement then bad.

If you're wanting lower property taxes (since property taxes are assessed by property value) then good.

If you're the government and need higher property taxes to pay for roads, schools, first responders then bad.

If you're a local government worker who depends on adequate tax flows then also bad.

If you're the guy from Rich Dad, Poor Dad then this is an opportunity to buy everything up for cheap to make massive profits later on. So good.

If you're someone young looking for a new house, uhh a bit iffy. Still got a bad rate for that mortgage, but the down payment would be cheaper. So neutral.

If you're that investor who just recently bought a property before the bubble bursting and you're also stupid and took on too much debt then bad (but the government may still bail you out if you're too big to fail, so possibly good).

 

[Farm Boy]

If you're wanting lower property taxes (since property taxes are assessed by property value) then good.

This doesn't work in wide downturns. The local government entities still need to pay for the schools, so they raise the rates to make up for it. Then when prices go back up, those rates don't come down. Welcome to Illinois.

 

[danjuno]

Generally good for owners living in their homes and bad for investors and speculators.

Anybody who engages in the latter with a basic necessity like housing deserved everything they get.

 

[Farm Boy]

Oh my sweet summer child.

 

[danjuno]

Implying I think this'll actually go anywhere.

 

[Hygro]

I’d point out that wages in Colorado are only marginally lower than in California at worst, and depending on source, may be greater than California’s by now: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=249&eid=259515&od=2020-01-01#

Connecticut is way down.

 

[Farm Boy]

Implying I think this'll actually go anywhere.

Do you want turtles up or turtles down?

 

[danjuno]

If the turtles are housing speculators, I want them made into turtle soup.