It's not well balanced at the moment, but I have a (currently private) mod where I replaced the entire civics tree. One of the things I did was to completely disable building of settlers, create basically a row of civics called "expansion" that will give you a settler in the capital as you complete the civic. That's the only way I can think of placing a hard limit on the number of settlers, to disable having them built and only can be created when you get to certain civics or techs.