Remember that the 2018 mid term was very like the 2014 midterm, but mirrored. Also, Bill Clinton had a bad first mid term and good second one.

J
 
A fairly safe bet is that the Senate remains Republican (maybe picking up a seat or two) while the House will be the opposite party of the President elect.

American voters like legislative gridlock. The cretins in DC do less damage that way.

Spoiler :
I do think a Republican mandate is more likely than a Democratic mandate.

Both chambers of Congress and the Presidency, 60+ in the Senate
 
Remember that HW Bush just successfully executed a popular war and still lost. Jimmy Carter negotiated historic peace accords and still lost. Trump has done...? Oh right he had an unpopular tax cut and threw kids in cages.

How's that wall coming along, by the way? Has Mexico cut any checks yet?

Or the investigation into everything Hillary-ish, is she finally in jail yet?
 
How's that wall coming along, by the way? Has Mexico cut any checks yet?

Or the investigation into everything Hillary-ish, is she finally in jail yet?

Hillary has to testify regarding her emails
USMCA has been negotiated
The Trade War with China hasn't caused significant inflation or decreased median wages

These are perceived as 'wins'. The costs of those successes are discounted by partisan bias (or increased by the other bias).

My own metric, pharmaceutical stocks, have been reasonably flat relative to the rest of the stock market. We're ready for a shoe to drop on negotiating drug prices.
 
How's that wall coming along, by the way? Has Mexico cut any checks yet?

Or the investigation into everything Hillary-ish, is she finally in jail yet?

the problem is that the US is not a majority-rule country and the 40% or so for whom this simply does not register are likely enough to deliver an EC victory for Trump.
 
the problem is that the US is not a majority-rule country and the 40% or so for whom this simply does not register are likely enough to deliver an EC victory for Trump.

I would submit that they need at least 8-10% more. And sticking a pin in Trump's "promises kept" line with commercials showing his biggest or at least showiest promises (Mexico paying for a wall, Hillary being jailed) with the result everyone except that 40% is aware of will help keep that from becoming more than 40%.

That aside...

I still think late October having McMaster, Mattis, Kelly, and Tillerson and any other high-level departures that don't need to preserve political viability and don't have any inherent R/D bias all pipe up and relate first-person specifics of Trump being a corrupt fool will deflate him enough to ensure he won't even come close to a win.
 
I would submit that they need at least 8-10% more. And sticking a pin in Trump's "promises kept" line with commercials showing his biggest or at least showiest promises (Mexico paying for a wall, Hillary being jailed) with the result everyone except that 40% is aware of will help keep that from becoming more than 40%.

That aside...

I still think late October having McMaster, Mattis, Kelly, and Tillerson and any other high-level departures that don't need to preserve political viability and don't have any inherent R/D bias all pipe up and relate first-person specifics of Trump being a corrupt fool will deflate him enough to ensure he won't even come close to a win.

I do not share your optimism. I have little doubt that the Republican attack machine will be extremely effective in bringing Biden down to Trump's level in terms of competence and corruption.
 
One thing I dont think people consider is that there is unlikely to be a big showing by the Libertarian candidate... and I'm willing to bet a lot more of those will be voting R than D this time around
 
I do not share your optimism. I have little doubt that the Republican attack machine will be extremely effective in bringing Biden down to Trump's level in terms of competence and corruption.

Not a prayer. If Biden where anywhere near Trump's level of corruption six terms in the senate would have made him a billionaire ten times over, his kids would never have even considered military service or careers in the public sector, and we wouldn't be having this conversation.
 
Not a prayer. If Biden where anywhere near Trump's level of corruption six terms in the senate would have made him a billionaire ten times over, his kids would never have even considered military service or careers in the public sector, and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

I don't know what to say except that I'm pretty sure the facts of the situation will have little to no relevance to how this plays out.
 
I'd wear a star spangled suit complete with stove pipe hat and out America his sorry butt
 
One thing I dont think people consider is that there is unlikely to be a big showing by the Libertarian candidate... and I'm willing to bet a lot more of those will be voting R than D this time around

The last election was at least predicted to be close enough that people in swing states were less likely to toss their vote to a 3rd party (except where both main candidates truly disgusted them). So assuming a close race this time, and Trump not getting any less disgusting, is the difference between Gary Johnson and Vermin Supreme really going to matter?

Actually, that brings up an interesting question. Is there going to be any groups this time voting for Trump, that didn't last time? The only ones I can think of are independent/moderate women who voted for Hillary because she's a woman, but otherwise lean conservative. But Trump is a pretty bitter pill to swallow for someone that identifies that way.
 
I'd wear a star spangled suit complete with stove pipe hat and out America his sorry butt

I'd skip the suit, but at some point in a debate I would work in "I was winning the cold war for Ronald Reagan while you were hiding behind your daddy's money you sorry sack of bone spurs and dog ____." I think that should sufficiently "out America" him.
 
Campaign on health care and immigration.

At least it is unlikely that Rush will be part of the GOP war machine.
 
Campaign on health care and immigration.

At least it is unlikely that Rush will be part of the GOP war machine.

I'm sure Hannity will be more than happy to take his place.
 
I don't know what to say except that I'm pretty sure the facts of the situation will have little to no relevance to how this plays out.

In some regards, sure. The Trump faithful would believe that Biden is a space alien from planet X if they were told to believe it, and if they were told to believe he's a sea monster from the deeps of the Pacific they would believe that as well without batting an eye. But there is no long term predispositioning done in advance with Biden, so buttery mails won't fall in the fertile soil of "didn't she kill somebody while whitewater rafting once back in the day?" Instead they will fall on "hey, Obama's vice president...good dude" for the majority of people. I think you are discouraged that 40% of USians are Foxbots and clearly beyond redemption, and that certainly is discouraging in itself, but they actually can't elect anyone by themselves.
 
Well what proof do you have that he's not a space alien from Planet X?

Mulvaney said so. He walked it back the next day, which is probably why you don't remember him ever saying it.
 
Well I guess dems don't want bernie winning, they've all dropped out to prevent splitting the vote. I wonder all the time if trump would've won the primary had republicans been a little more like this and not so arrogant saying he can't possibly win.
 
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