How is everything not collapsing in the US?

[Narz]

iirc gdp dropped by like 33%, grand depression #s. How come people are still getting lattes and pizzas and watching Netflix and not dying?

Even before this crisis, basically my whole life since I understood what global warming was I've had this uncomfortable feeling that everything is fake and fragile and held together by collective belief and sacrifice of the future.

But maybe I'm wrong like libertarians think and everything will keep improving and somehow we'll solve our problems in the nick of time like every action movie.

 

[thecrazyscot]

Because our economy is staggeringly huge. It could take several massive hits and still chug along.

Economic impacts will also not be evenly spread around the country. Some places will be mostly just fine while others are laid waste.

 

[Birdjaguar]

iirc gdp dropped by like 33%, grand depression #s. How come people are still getting lattes and pizzas and watching Netflix and not dying?

Even before this crisis, basically my whole life since I understood what global warming was I've had this uncomfortable feeling that everything is fake and fragile and held together by collective belief and sacrifice of the future.

But maybe I'm wrong like libertarians think and everything will keep improving and somehow we'll solve our problems in the nick of time like every action movie.

Countries and the world is a muddle of things that hang together in ways not necessarily noticeable. It takes a lot to bring things to a halt. People have a lot of "stored resources" that they can tap into when things are tough. Natural disasters are quick, but localized; climate change is everywhere, but both slow and different in different places; political and economic collapse tend to regional or local. People are resilient. History often presents change as a quick thing, but mostly that is because it is in a written form. Most big changes take years to mature.

 

[Crezth]

The economy is melting down. Despite the markets having posted good numbers through the unemployment boom, the real economy is cratering. The western reserve banks are all out of ammo. Rates are near zero and quantitative easing doesn’t work that well. Now that the GDP numbers have posted, some of the governments may step in to start spending but at this point it’s a day late and a dollar short.

To give a comparison, we had near zero rates after 2007 and growth still sucked. All the weight was on monetary policy but it turns out even low rates can’t spin gold from straw. Now that we’re having a downturn the only option is government spending.

But paradoxically they don’t seem too concerned. They’re all betting on a bounce that probably won’t come. This is why it’s sticking together: they’re putting all their bets on the post-covid bounce, which they hope will be any day now and is why they are trying to send people back to work. But they have sorely underestimated the hit.

It’s entirely likely we end up in another Great Depression from this.

 

[Zelig]

Because our economy is staggeringly huge. It could take several massive hits and still chug along.

Yeah, an actual 33% decrease in GDP would put per capita levels around those of the UK, France, New Zealand or Japan.

 

[GenMarshall]

It’s entirely likely we end up in another Great Depression from this.

The Great Recession never ended .

 

[Birdjaguar]

Yeah, an actual 33% decrease in GDP would put per capita levels around those of the UK, France, New Zealand or Japan.

33% is an annualized number. There are two more quarters to go to get the final 2020 GDP change.

 

[Crezth]

I am well aware of that, but I also don’t think the economy is just a pile of money we take from when things go bad and as long as the pile is big enough we’ll be fine.

 

[r16]

and it is said it was not the 1929 , but 1931 that brought the Nazis in . America in Great Depression was not that big a thing in itself but it triggered things . Poster has no clue about economics ; plays at negative income most of turns and moves the slider when it is just 1 turn to new tech discovery . You can say that probably means we haven't seen the bottom yet .

 

[emzie]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but from the outside, the US already looks to be collapsing. Not yet falling, but like the surge of a glacier that's moving quicker and quicker every year.

 

[thecrazyscot]

I don't think there's any doubt that the US is going to undergo or is already undergoing a.."readjustment" (to put it in clinical, impersonal terms), but collapse? Warrantless hyperbole, imo.

 

[AdamCrock]

Crumbling Empire , just like Romans - gonna serve the same fate. History repeats itself.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Yeah, an actual 33% decrease in GDP would put per capita levels around those of the UK, France, New Zealand or Japan.

But those countries are taking a GDP hit too.

 

[AdamCrock]

But those countries are taking a GDP hit too.

Dear Mr. Edward would You rather take money or give money ...
Countries work like man, because they are created by men.

 

[Crezth]

Economic impacts will also not be evenly spread around the country. Some places will be mostly just fine while others are laid waste.

I don't think there's any doubt that the US is going to undergo or is already undergoing a.."readjustment" (to put it in clinical, impersonal terms), but collapse? Warrantless hyperbole, imo.

So close, and yet, so far.

 

[AdamCrock]

But those countries are taking a GDP hit too.

GDP is not the only indicator in the world ... just sayin ..... take number of tanks per capita

 

[AdamCrock]

The money is only worth how much You believe it to be worth ...a bankman's trick, money is worth horsehocky ! Only worth is in "blood and iron"

 

[rah]

Yes, as long as the us dollar is the preferred world currency, no problem. But if it's ever replaced, it's all over.

 

[AdamCrock]

Yes, as long as the us dollar is the preferred world currency, no problem. But if it's ever replaced, it's all over.

Us dollar cannot be replaced You can still buy an AK - Kalashikov and a bucket of bullets and my pants with a hundred of bucks

 

[Birdjaguar]

There are lots of measures one can use to judge things, but whatever one you choose, you need to view it over 5, 10, and 20 years at least. Narrow windows of perspective lead to misjudgments. And it is generally better to use two or three different measures and see if they are in agreement.

If you look only at GDP for 2019 you get one picture. If you only look at 2020 you get another that is completely different.